How Much Better Are We?

[leecemark]

--How much better do you expect the Mariners to be this season? Eric Bedard is obviously a huge improvement and Carlos Silva is also an upgrade to our starting pitching. OTOH our 2nd best hitter from 2007 (Jose Guillen) and 2nd best reliever (George Sherrill) gone. Here is my take on our 2008 roster with +/- wins. Trying to take the most optimistic view:cap:.
C: Johjima should be about the same (-)
1B: Sexson should have at least a little bounce (+1)
2B: Lopez might take a step forward (+.5)
3B: Beltre should be about the same (-)
SS: Betancourt should be a little steadier defensively (+.5)
LF: Ibanez will hopefully not suffer further decline (-)
CF: Ichiro should deliver more of the same (-)
RF: Wilkerson will be hard pressed to match Guillen's 2006 season (-1)
DH: Vidro could go either way, but near the same is likely (-)
--Thats about 1 extra win from the lineup. The bench will again be weak and a non-factor as long as we avoid serious injury. Balentin and Clement give us some insurance at LF/RF/1B/DH/C. Injuries to Ichiro, Beltre or Betancourt would be disasterous.
SP: Hernandez should take another step forward (+1) and could make the move to superstardom (+3?)
SP: Washburn is likely average again (-)
SP: Batista probably won't be quite as good (-1)
SP: Bedard for Ramirez!!! (+5)
SP: Silva for Weaver (+2)
--The rotation looks about 7 wins better than last year - without Felix taking more than a small step forward.
CL: Putz is awesome, but is unlikley to be quite as good as last year (-.5)
RHSU: Morrow's talent is wasted here, but he should be very good (+.5)
LHSU: O'Flaherty is solid but no Sherrill (-1)
--We have enough candidates to round out the bullpen that I expect the overall pen should be good. Probably not as good as last year though. We do have alot more depth in pitching though and can withstand injury a little better than we can with position players.
--Overall the team looks about 7 wins better than last year - if all goes well. I'd be very happy if things turned out that way. 95 wins should win the division. There are a couple problems with that though. We were very lucky with injuries last year and staying relatively injury free two years in a row is unlikely. Also being 7 games better doesn't neccessarily mean we end up with 7 more wins. Winning 88 games while giving up 19 more runs than we scored last year was kind of flukish.

[SABR Matt]

Not really...we had 4 sub-marginal pitchers in the bottom two rotation slots and two pitchers (Hernandez and Batista) who were extremely volatile from strat to start...the Mariners scored 142 runs and allowed 198 in games decided by 5 or more runs...but despite that...they went 23-23 in those games. If you take blowouts away, we played .525 ball per standard pythagorean logic and if you assume 50/50 odds in blowouts plus .525 in normal games, we should have gone 85-77...so we were a tad lucky...but not extremely lucky.

With the rotation fixed, you can expect much better than .500 performance in blowouts this year and you can expect the odd looking pythag record to disappear. We're building on an 85 win team...not a 79 win team as some insist. Add you 7 wins and you get very close to my projection...I think we go 92-70 or 94-68 and either win the west or miss by a game or two.

[Rennie Stennett]

Are The M's Better ?

With the way the schedule is for the Mariners this year,

The 2008 schedule for the M's is much like the past few years as far as travel for the M's and weird quirks in the schedule. The M's travel more than any other MLB team and this continues in 2008. The M's make seven trips back East. (1) April 4th, three @ Baltimore then three @ Tampa. (2) April 29th, three @ Cleveland, then three @ NYY. (3) May 20th, three with Detroit, then three more with the NYY. (4) June 6th @ Boston for three and three @ Toronto. (5) June 20th, three at Atlanta and three @ NYM. (6) July 25th @ Toronto for three and back to Texas for three. Finally, (7) August 29th @ Cleveland for three and back to Texas for three.

from:http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=68603

the bench should factor heavily early on. I don't know Johnny Mac's style being he's only been at the helm for half a season, but it seemed he was happy to trot the same eight guys out there everyday. Skipper Mac benefited from watching Sweet Lou operate everyday for years and you wonder if any of it sunk in. That is, if you play for Lou, you are going to see action, not rot on the end of the bench. If Lou doesn't like you, you'll just be gone, otherwise you will play. I don't know if Mac didn't want to piss off the veterans, by sitting them or what. If you play all your guys on the 25 man roster all season long, when a guy goes down, it's not such a shock to the system and come playoff time if needed the guy will have confidence from playing all year.

Yes we did get lucky with injuries in 2007, but we had those nagging injuries that everyone gets, but in particular, the reoccurring (correct term ?) injuries to Sexson (knees and hamstring) and the ones to Ibanez (back & hamstring) is something we have to live with. Again, I would like to see the bench guys see action. The pitching suffered some injuries last year and will benefit from a stronger rotation.

As far as the pitching side of it, there is a big improvement in the starting pitching which should take the heat off the pen and the other starters. Guys don't have to be something they are not. When a guy drops down in the rotation there is less expectation, less pressure. The King doesn't have to be the ace at 21 years. Washburn doesn't have to be a number two and so on. I think things will be good on the pitching side. The bullpen will take time to work things out and guys will find their roles. A couple of veterans, who were injured for the year Lowe, Chris Reitsma, and Arthur Rhodes should be back. It's a iffy proposition, but if they can get hitters out, we can use them. Rhodes is a lefty, and if he can come in in the sixth and get one or two lefties out, I'd be happy. Reitsma, if he can stay healthy is the big question. I wonder if it's something in his mechanics that just wears him down. Lowe, who came back late last year from injury, didn't have enough work and arm strength to help, but he was, in his few appearances in the minors, able to get guys out. With this solid rotation, it should be easier to find a couple long guys in the bullpen. Dickey, the Knuckle Baller should make the club, being a rule 5 guy and he should be able to throw every other day.
Rock-n-Rollin Smith has a shot at the long spot. Another big year for JJ Putz. Dude is a Moose on the Loose ! I love his style last year, especially with runners on base.

This one guy gave me a bunch of crap because I didn't know much about Bedard and dude said I should read the other threads on here and stuff. Well I do read other threads, when I have time, and I'll try to improve on this. Anyway, I read up on Bedard. I googled. I read stuff on Baseball-fever and so on. What I've learned about Bedard is that he uses both sides of the plate, up and down. He has four pitches that he can throw for strikes and get guys out. He's a strike out guy and he'll give you six or seven solid innings, throwing a bunch of pitches. He should be a great fit for Safeco and he has ice water in his veins. The M's should pick up some wins with him in there. Not just what he does on his turn but the influence he has over the rest of the staff.

Much has been said about the pitching staff, but what about the pitching coach ? The M's hired Mel Stottlemyre. With the Yankees form 96 to 05 the staff had a team ERA of 4.23. Not to shabby.

Another plus is the M's have good vibes in the clubhouse. The energy, the chemistry is lead by JJ Putz, the trickster. This has to pick up five to ten wins right there.

One important thing is division play. The Mariners need to do better against the division in 2008 and I think they will. One more year older for Lopez and
Betancourt up the middle. Ichiro in CF and Kenji Johjima at Catcher. The M's are solid up the middle and solid at third base. The outfield should get a little faster if he lets the kid Wladimir Balentien, play. Just turn him loose. Let him hit 9th in front of Ichiro. I love that speed in front of Ichiro. If he finds the gap they'll run for days ! The Mariners should give the Angels a run this year. With Oakland and Texas way back in the division, who ever beats them the most should win the division, figuring both the M's and Angels play (.500) against each other. The way things went last year, I'd take it, but a little more is needed. The M's really have to take two out of three from them heads up, every series. . M's 95 wins.

[Knick9]

My best guess would be this: I think the M's are at least slightly better than last year. Getting Bedard, in my opinion, is a big boost to the starting rotation. You already have Felix and add Bedard to the mix along with Carlos Silva, who I believe is really underrated, then you are pretty solid.

All that will matter will be the offense...can they hold up with a few guys aging and all? That's a big question.

[Rennie Stennett]

How many wins ?

PECOTA has the M's winning 73 games this year.

http://vegaswatch.net/2008/02/crazy-computer-hates-mariners.html

fanbaynetsports has them winning 90 games

http://www.fanbay.net/mlb/projected/al.htm#west

vegas has them to Win A.L.: 14-1, to Win W.S.: 30-1

if your a hugh M's fan don't read the following:

http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/09/running-the-2008-season-a-hundred-times/

Peter Gammons has the M's winning 92 or 93 games and sees them as a possible wild card team due to the strength of the AL East.

[Wade8813]

Pecota has the M's completely tanking? Weird...

[Rennie Stennett]

Pecota has the M's completely tanking? Weird...

love your signature...

Now we have an ace to go with our King.

[Wade8813]

Thanks. I saw an ad in the Seattle Times that had it, and modified it to work for my sig

[Marinerman]

C: Johjima should be about the same (-)
1B: Sexson should have at least a little bounce (+1)
2B: Lopez might take a step forward (+.5)
3B: Beltre should be about the same (-)
SS: Betancourt should be a little steadier defensively (+.5)
LF: Ibanez will hopefully not suffer further decline (-)
CF: Ichiro should deliver more of the same (-)
RF: Wilkerson will be hard pressed to match Guillen's 2006 season (-1)
DH: Vidro could go either way, but near the same is likely (-)
--Thats about 1 extra win from the lineup. The bench will again be weak and a non-factor as long as we avoid serious injury. Balentin and Clement give us some insurance at LF/RF/1B/DH/C. Injuries to Ichiro, Beltre or Betancourt would be disasterous.
SP: Hernandez should take another step forward (+1) and could make the move to superstardom (+3?)
SP: Washburn is likely average again (-)
SP: Batista probably won't be quite as good (-1)
SP: Bedard for Ramirez!!! (+5)
SP: Silva for Weaver (+2)
--The rotation looks about 7 wins better than last year - without Felix taking more than a small step forward.
CL: Putz is awesome, but is unlikley to be quite as good as last year (-.5)
RHSU: Morrow's talent is wasted here, but he should be very good (+.5)
LHSU: O'Flaherty is solid but no Sherrill (-1)

Johjima - Has potential to hit for more power. Hopefully he improves in this department + he's got competition with Clement-Johjiman might get pushed (+1)
Sexson - I think is a minus. I don't think he's going to get any better. (-2)
Beltre - Will be better. He's understanding AL pitching (+2)
Bettancourt - Needs to stop swinging at every pitch. Needs to improve his defense. (-)
Lopez - Miserable 2006. "lost desire" so he says. I think Lopez might be a liability (-2)
Ibanez - I think he's in decline (-2)
Ichiro - Not hitting right now. Scary. Somethings wrong here. (-)
Wilkerson - Batting 400. He's healthy and will do better then Guillen + will be a better defensive player (not get in the away of Ichiro etc) (+2)
Batista - Should be just as good and his after last year, may make him better. No reason to think otherwise. (+1)
Bedard - Great pitcher. Had some longevity problems (+3)
Silva - Having a decent spring. Yes an improvement, juries out (+1)
Vidro - Another good year (-)
Washburn - Pushed by others to do better (+1)
Hernandez - Will be competing with Bedard - Will make him better (+2)
Bullpen - Ryan Rowland-Smith , Lowe, Morrow. We're alright there and Morrow's will be better. Some veterans like Dickey might do good. Maybe Rhodes will do well. (-).
Putz - Lost a little at the end of the season. Tired? Don't know. (-)

Starting Rotation overall (+4)
I've got to throw in Clement as a very positive factor in the power hitting department(+2)