2007 Prediction.

[Chris from NY]

How about the Jays and Sox make the playoffs? I think we would both like that.. A certain team would watching from their couches.

That's fine by us!

[EvanAparra]

i think we can contend in both the wildcard or al east. i think the wc is more realistic options because i do see either boston or new york pulling away much like new york did last year but i dont see toronto tailing off again. i would very pleasent to see my jays in october!

How about the Jays and Sox make the playoffs? I think we would both like that.. A certain team would watching from their couches.

[Big_Mac]

What needs to change? In your earlier post you said "is a great pick up by the Sox, but will need time to transition." But you won't take him now because he is not on the team yet? Am I getting something wrong here?

i think what he's saying is that until we see him pitch in major league ballgames, we dont know what he will be like at this level. he dominated at the wbc and everything but who knows? he might get thrown around a bit but no one knows for sure. i think he'll be excellent imo but we don't know yet.

i think we can contend in both the wildcard or al east. i think the wc is more realistic options because i do see either boston or new york pulling away much like new york did last year but i dont see toronto tailing off again. i would very pleasent to see my jays in october!

[EvanAparra]

Until Matsuzaka is in a Red Sox uniform and getting wins as a member of the Red Sox, I still pick Chacin. I am also fairly certain that I will be proved dead wrong on that one. But, like I said, looking at things as they are now, I stand by my earlier post. When things change, they change.

What needs to change? In your earlier post you said "is a great pick up by the Sox, but will need time to transition." But you won't take him now because he is not on the team yet? Am I getting something wrong here?

[Chris from NY]

Until Matsuzaka is in a Red Sox uniform and getting wins as a member of the Red Sox, I still pick Chacin. I am also fairly certain that I will be proved dead wrong on that one. But, like I said, looking at things as they are now, I stand by my earlier post. When things change, they change.

[Richmond Hill Phoenix]

Probably not gonna happen.

• Wang
• Mussina
• Johnson
• Zito/Lilly
• Hughes (not there if both of the above are signed)

[EvanAparra]

Hopefully we sign a 3rd starter (Mulder/Meche/Lilly). Then we would have Chacin/Marcum/Towers as 4 and 5.

That might be key to contending -- especially if the Jays sign them and NY doesn't. I would be nice to see the Yankees have a hole in their rotation instead of the Sox and Jays for once.

[Richmond Hill Phoenix]

Hopefully we sign a 3rd starter (Mulder/Meche/Lilly). Then we would have Chacin/Marcum/Towers as 4 and 5.

[EvanAparra]

Papelbon certainly won't maintain that ERA as a starter. I have a feeling that he will suffer from the Sophmore Slump, and not be very effective this season. I am ready to be proven wrong though.

Of course not. I wasn't trying to say that at all. But a 3.50 ERA is very reasonable if he continues to throw the way he did last year, or anywhere near it... And that's probably a good amount better than Marcum will give you (although I do think Marcum can become a serviceable ML pitcher)

[Richmond Hill Phoenix]

Papelbon certainly won't maintain that ERA as a starter. I have a feeling that he will suffer from the Sophmore Slump, and not be very effective this season. I am ready to be proven wrong though.

[EvanAparra]

Ok, here we go...

1. Roy Halladay is easily one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball. Curt Schilling is still a very good pitcher, but is nearing the end of his career and is declining. The Jays have the clear advantage here.

Agreed. I think he's second only to Santana.

2. A.J. Burnett was a risky free-agent signing who spent a significant portion of the season injured. When he was healthy, he was nearly unhittable at times, and finished the season with decent numbers and the question: what if he had been healthy? Josh Beckett played alot more than Burnett last season, so that could give him the edge right there. However, he wasn't as dominating as A.J. and wasn't as good as he was in '05 when he played on a worse team. This one is close, I'd say it's a toss-up

You're right on with the amount they played. Beckett pitched about 70 innings more than Burnett, but his ERA was a run higher. However, this was inflated due to a couple starts where Francona left him in too long and he got racked much more than he should have. In the end, Beckett had an equal amount of quality starts as Chien-Ming Wang and at time (like Burnett) was unhittable. Career wise, I'd take Beckett -- 3-4 years younger than Burnett. Next year, its a toss up.

3. Gustavo Chacin was, unfortunatley injured for a good portion of last season. In his rookie year, he pitched well in an inconsistent rotation. When he was healthy in '06, he looked like he was right where he left off. Daisuke Matsuzaka looks like a fantastic pitcher and a great pick-up by the Sox. Having said that, he has no experience at the major league level, and might need a period of transition before he is comfortable in the majors. I'll give the slight edge to the Jays

Here is where I completely disagree with you. Matsuzaka completely dominated Major League hitters in the WBC, and was the most coveted FA pitcher on the market this year. When you think he might need a period of transition, I HIGHLY doubt this is the case. Hideo Nomo came to the US and abosulutely dominated his rookie year because no one had seen him before, why wouldn't it be the same with Matsuzaka, who is projected to be even better than Nomo?

Chacin was below average this past year and had injury problems, I see no reason why this could give the Jays an edge.

4. Since the Jays rotation is still hazy at this point, this is a tough one to do. By the looks of things, the Sox number four is Jonathon Papelbon. Papelbon is unproven as a starter, and injured his shoulder as a closer. Good luck keeping your arm healthy while your starting instead of sitting in the bullpen for most of the game, every game. The Jays will either sign a proven starting picher or have Shaun Marcum pitch in the 4 spot. This one goes easily to the Jays.

Marcum vs. Papelbon

Marcum had an ERA over 5 this past year. Papelbon under 1. He was hurt, but he could have returned after only 2 weeks, but since the Sox were out of it, they let him rest. He was a starting pitcher his whole career in the minors until this past year, where he was an all-star closer. He can handle the workload, he's done it before. His injury was a small one.

5. This is another hard one to judge, as it just isn't clear who will hold these positions for either team. We'll call it a toss-up for now.

Wakefield for the Sox, unknown for the Jays. Until you sign a solid SP, this goes to the Sox. Wakefield will post the same 4.4 ERA here next year, as he has for the last 4 years. 4.4 ERA is great from the 5 spot, and he is very reliable. Even if a better pitcher is signed and Marcum is moved to the 5 spot, I'd still take Wakefield.

[Richmond Hill Phoenix]

I think that Matsuzaka gets the edge for me, over Chacin. But maybe Chacin will have a year like he did when he was a rookie. Then, it might be close.

[Chris from NY]

On paper, the Sox rotation looks better than the Jays, however, looking at them head-to-head I think the Jays might habe a slight edge.

1. Roy Halladay is easily one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball. Curt Schilling is still a very good pitcher, but is nearing the end of his career and is declining. The Jays have the clear advantage here.

2. A.J. Burnett was a risky free-agent signing who spent a significant portion of the season injured. When he was healthy, he was nearly unhittable at times, and finished the season with decent numbers and the question: what if he had been healthy? Josh Beckett played alot more than Burnett last season, so that could give him the edge right there. However, he wasn't as dominating as A.J. and wasn't as good as he was in '05 when he played on a worse team. This one is close, I'd say it's a toss-up

3. Gustavo Chacin was, unfortunatley injured for a good portion of last season. In his rookie year, he pitched well in an inconsistent rotation. When he was healthy in '06, he looked like he was right where he left off. Daisuke Matsuzaka looks like a fantastic pitcher and a great pick-up by the Sox. Having said that, he has no experience at the major league level, and might need a period of transition before he is comfortable in the majors. I'll give the slight edge to the Jays

4. Since the Jays rotation is still hazy at this point, this is a tough one to do. By the looks of things, the Sox number four is Jonathon Papelbon. Papelbon is unproven as a starter, and injured his shoulder as a closer. Good luck keeping your arm healthy while your starting instead of sitting in the bullpen for most of the game, every game. The Jays will either sign a proven starting picher or have Shaun Marcum pitch in the 4 spot. This one goes easily to the Jays.

5. This is another hard one to judge, as it just isn't clear who will hold these positions for either team. We'll call it a toss-up for now.

Looking at that, I'd say the Jays have a definite advantage over the Red Sox. And because I laid out my entire method of coming up with this, I cannot be accused of having a skewed opinion, or wearing blue sunglasses. Anyone can feel free to challenge my opinions, but please do me the courtesy of trying to prove your opinion, like I did.

[Richmond Hill Phoenix]

Ya. I just saw that... Hopefully there's someone out there for the BJ's 3-spot.

[EvanAparra]

Wow, ok...

Btw, Wolf signed with LA.