Should Toronto trade Wells?

[babaganoosh]

I don't have too much on my mind right now about who to trade him for or when, but I seriously think we should look to trade Vernon Wells eventually. Maybe not this season, but just sometime before his contract ends. This guy has a very heavily back-loaded contract I believe, and using him while he's cheap would be a good bargain for us. Also, there's so much talk about Alex Rios, Adam Lind, and just our outfielders in general. Sure Wells is a good multi-dimensional player, but does he really deserve that big a contract? People want to shrug off last year and say it was a fluke, but looking back, I'm not sure if it is. Not including this year so far, 3 of his last 4 years he has hit under .280 and driven in under 100 RBI. The most homers he's hit is somewhere around 35 I think. Though they are pretty good numbers, is he worth the $21 million per year that he'll make in the last few years of his contract?

[Defense Counts!]

First of all, if you think he's not worth the money, why would you believe that any other team would think he is? Other team's managers can look at the numbers too.

Also, batting average is not a good offensive indicator. Slugging average is better.

Thirdly, RBI is as much a team stat as an individual one. It depends a great deal on those hitting in front of the batter in question, and on the batter's position in the batting order.

And finally, Wells value must be considered in light of his defense. He won three gold gloves before 2007. In CF, defense is very important.

[Defense Counts!]

Okay, I just checked baseball-reference.com for Wells' stats in the years 2005-07.

2005: 28 HR, 97 RBI, .463 SLG.
2006: 32 HR, 106 RBI, .542 SLG
2007: 16 HR, 80 RBI, .402 SLG.

His 2006 numbers are excellent, and his 2007 numbers must be seen in light of an injury.

His lifetime SLG avg is .480, which is 6th best all-time for a Blue Jay.

As for whether he's worth the money ... well, by today's inflated salary standards, he probably is.

[Chris from NY]

If the Blue Jays were going to trade Wells, the time to do it was at the end of 2006. That's when his value to any team hoping to acquire him was at its highest. Now he is too expensive and most teams wouldn't want to give up what the blue jays would surely ask. I see no reason to trade Wells now or any other time. I'm betting on Adam Lind becoming the DH once Frank Thomas is out of the picture.

[Big_Mac]

If the Blue Jays were going to trade Wells, the time to do it was at the end of 2006.

something i was quite the advocate of at the time.

however, wells trade value is low as chris said due to his high salary and him and rios are signed long-term so we should build around these two (could even throw hill in there). rios and wells are five-tool players that are hard to come by.

[Josh]

No,they should not trade him.

[babaganoosh]

First of all, if you think he's not worth the money, why would you believe that any other team would think he is? Other team's managers can look at the numbers too.

I may not believe someone deserves the money they get, but that doesn't stop a lot of teams. Ted Lilly isn't an 11 million per year guy to me, but there were still takers for him. A-Rod isn't a 28 million per year guy to me, but obviously there are still takers. Not everyone gets paid at the value I think they should, so I don't see it being a problem that no teams would want him just because I don't at that price.

Also, batting average is not a good offensive indicator. Slugging average is better.

Are you seriously telling me a guy like Aaron Hill (.484 slugging) is better than Ichiro (.431 slugging)? Average isn't everything, but it is a part of hitting and slugging is part of it too and it isn't any better than using average as an indicator.

Thirdly, RBI is as much a team stat as an individual one. It depends a great deal on those hitting in front of the batter in question, and on the batter's position in the batting order.

Well last season he had Rios ahead of him, Overbay played a bit up there before the injury, Hill I believe was up there, so he wasn't playing behind some struggling rookies.

And finally, Wells value must be considered in light of his defense. He won three gold gloves before 2007. In CF, defense is very important.

Gold gloves = most overrated award. I'm not saying Wells is bad, but how much does a gold glove really mean? There are plenty of great defenders in the league, but they get no recognition because they aren't good offensive players and don't get the highlights. Take for example, John MacDonald. He was absolutely magnificent last year and was in my opinion (and I don't think I'm being biased here) was the best defensive shortstop in the league last year. Also, if you look at Jeter, he isn't even that great defensively. He has his great play here and there, but he isn't a great defender. As much as it's nice to have a gold glove, it doesn't mean too much other than it saying "hey, you're an above average defensive player who can hit".

Okay, I just checked baseball-reference.com for Wells' stats in the years 2005-07.

2005: 28 HR, 97 RBI, .463 SLG.
2006: 32 HR, 106 RBI, .542 SLG
2007: 16 HR, 80 RBI, .402 SLG.

His 2006 numbers are excellent, and his 2007 numbers must be seen in light of an injury.

Well look back another year and you'll see the numbers aren't that great either. I'm not saying the numbers are that bad, but are they what a 21 million per season guy should be putting up? Or are they what we need/want at this point in time. Rios did a good job last year, but he was still in the middle of trade talks to get good young pitchers, and Wells for those good pitchers could benefit our team more than what he puts up. Also, we'd save the money we would've paid to him and could sign some other guys too.

[Defense Counts!]

I'm not saying the numbers are that bad, but are they what a 21 million per season guy should be putting up

First of all, he hasn't made 21 million yet. According to baseball-reference.com, he made less than 9 million last year. Are you saying he'll make 21 mil this year? That's a lot higher than the numbers I remember hearing. What's your source?

Are you seriously telling me a guy like Aaron Hill (.484 slugging) is better than Ichiro (.431 slugging)?

This year, yes. Ichiro is strictly a singles hitter. Batting average is grossly overrated because it assumes a single has the same value as a home run. Do you believe that's the case?

Back to my main point: Vernon Wells is a five-tool player who has had a couple of average seasons mixed in with some great ones. No-one is untradeable, but it had better be a damn good deal before it's worth unloading Wells.

Now, Frank Thomas, on the other hand ...

[babaganoosh]

First of all, he hasn't made 21 million yet. According to baseball-reference.com, he made less than 9 million last year. Are you saying he'll make 21 mil this year? That's a lot higher than the numbers I remember hearing. What's your source?

I don't believe I said this year, I went with an eventually arguement. Much like when I made the thread I wasn't saying we should trade him now, but rather consider it in the future. And yes his contract will go to 21 million per year for I believe the final 3 seasons.

This year, yes. Ichiro is strictly a singles hitter. Batting average is grossly overrated because it assumes a single has the same value as a home run. Do you believe that's the case?

Those were numbers from last year when Ichiro hit .351 and was still the same dominant player. Also, I'm not too sure, but I believe even their career averages, Hill has a higher slugging. So if that were the case, is Hill a better player than Ichiro?

And you mentioned single has same value as a home run. So does 1 triple have the same value as 3 singles? I would take a guy who can get 3 singles in however many at bats rather than a guy who gets just 1 triple. You may score that triple easier, but more singles means more chances to score, which could max out at 3 runs instead of 1. Also, 3 hits compared to 1 means that you get out less and give the rest your line-up more outs to work with and more cracks at the pitcher.

Back to my main point: Vernon Wells is a five-tool player who has had a couple of average seasons mixed in with some great ones. No-one is untradeable, but it had better be a damn good deal before it's worth unloading Wells.

Well Rios is also a 5-tool player, possibly even more well-rounded, though probably offensively still has some growing that he can do. And yet he was linked in trade rumours and he's a pretty good steal for us at his price for an all-star, so why shouldn't Wells be considered for a trade as serious as Rios had been.

[Defense Counts!]

So if that were the case, is Hill a better player than Ichiro?

Ichiro's career slugging average is .435, Hill's is .418

Ichiro is considered a better player than Hill because he is a better all-around player. As a hitter, he has had many more years in pro ball than Hill, and so has better hitting numbers also. This might change in the future as Hill is only 26 years old and should get better with the bat in the next decade of his career.

So does 1 triple have the same value as 3 singles? I would take a guy who can get 3 singles in however many at bats rather than a guy who gets just 1 triple. You may score that triple easier, but more singles means more chances to score, which could max out at 3 runs instead of 1.

I didn't claim that slugging average is perfect, only that it's better than batting average. There's no way that a single and a home run have equal value: they're not even close. Yet according to BA, they're IDENTICAL in value.

I recall reading about a statistical anaysis (perhaps made by Bill James, who analyzes this stuff in minute detail) in which all hits are graded according to their total value to the offence. I believe a home run was worth 3.24 singles.

Anyway, if you still regard BA as better than SLG, I suggest you wander over into the Statistics forum and ask the experts there. They will probably talk about OPS (on-base plus slugging) or some other complex stat to summarize hitting, but I'm sure they'll rank slugging ahead of BA. If not, I stand corrected.

Well Rios is also a 5-tool player, possibly even more well-rounded, though probably offensively still has some growing that he can do. And yet he was linked in trade rumours and he's a pretty good steal for us at his price for an all-star, so why shouldn't Wells be considered for a trade as serious as Rios had been.

I think anyone can be considered for a trade, and I'll wager Wells was considered for such (a lack of rumours says nothing about what is going on in Riccardi's head). Rios has shown promise, but he may not mature as predicted and so was probably getting serious trade consideration because the Jays are a more mature team and are looking to succeed this year. Wells has a better track record, so he would be regarded as a better bet for the next couple of years.

And I still don't believe anyone thinks Rios is the better player now. Last year may have been a fluke. We'll see.

[babaganoosh]

Ichiro's career slugging average is .435, Hill's is .418

Ichiro is considered a better player than Hill because he is a better all-around player. As a hitter, he has had many more years in pro ball than Hill, and so has better hitting numbers also. This might change in the future as Hill is only 26 years old and should get better with the bat in the next decade of his career.

Alright, my bad on the career thing. But I guess my point on last year still stands that Ichiro his .351 and had the lower slugging. And yes Ichiro is a better player than Hill, but I still believe he is also a better hitter too, something the slugging would not suggest. Yes he's had more years in pro ball and he's developed more, but as of last year, the slugging percentage would indicate that Hill is the better player now. Well at least from last year's numbers it would indicate that.

I didn't claim that slugging average is perfect, only that it's better than batting average. There's no way that a single and a home run have equal value: they're not even close. Yet according to BA, they're IDENTICAL in value.

I recall reading about a statistical anaysis (perhaps made by Bill James, who analyzes this stuff in minute detail) in which all hits are graded according to their total value to the offence. I believe a home run was worth 3.24 singles.

Anyway, if you still regard BA as better than SLG, I suggest you wander over into the Statistics forum and ask the experts there. They will probably talk about OPS (on-base plus slugging) or some other complex stat to summarize hitting, but I'm sure they'll rank slugging ahead of BA. If not, I stand corrected.

It would be pretty ridiculous if I claimed that BA was perfect, because no single statistic ever is. However, some players don't focus on slugging on purpose. To stay with my example of Ichiro, I remember hearing a story about him a couple years ago. He was in batting practise and hitting all these cheap little singles to all fields, so then his manager or batting coach walks up to him and asked him whether he could do anything other than those cheap singles. He then promptly hits 7 or 8 home runs. So even though his slugging is low, he is still a far superior pure hitter compared to even some of the higher slugging hitters because they just can't adapt to situations as well as someone who does have the average.

[Chris from NY]

That's why I have a hate on for baseball statistics. They're for some people, just not me. I personally think Ichiro is one of the best hitters in baseball. I don't need some stupid statistics to either prove or disprove that. I've seen him play. I've seen what he can do, and I don't need a million different statistics telling as such. I'll leave the statistics for the people who love 'em.