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  • The AJ Burnett thread

    With so much speculation of whether he'll leave or not, whether he'll get an extension offer worth 15 million per year and whatnot, I decided to make this thread until his future team is decided.

    So just to kick off the thread:
    Do you think he'll be back?
    What is he worth on the UFA market?
    What do you see from him in the future?
    Evaluate his performance as a Jay.

  • #2
    Aj

    According to the Toronto Sun, the Blue Jays offered Burnett a contract extension for an additional 30 million and 2 years, which would take him up to 2012. As for AJ's season, I think it was awesome, but I also think he was showcasing himself. Personally I don't think he will be here next year. I think the Jays should get rid of Vernon Wells, sign somebody who can hit at least 20 HR's, go after someone like Ryan Dempster. And JP should be fired, although that won't be happening. 4th place, see you again in 2009!

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    • #3
      I would go as high as 4 years $15 million per. But once free agency hits some team (Yankees) will go insane.

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      • #4
        I think AJ is a good pitcher but hes definitely not worth the money he was making and was offered for an extension. If i'm going to invest a lot of money into a pitcher, I won't invest it in an injury prone pitcher like Burnett. The Jays saved $10 million by getting rid of Thomas, no more Ekstein who made $4.5 million, no more Stairs who made what $1.8 million or so ? If AJ walks, i'd like to see the Jays get CC Sabathia, but I don't think the Jays will offer a long term contract... but if they offered AJ 2 year $30 million extension, they might as well offer CC a contract. I think they are a few good players away from making it to the post season. If they got rid of Overbay and put Lind at 1st where he use to play originally and move Snider to LF, they could go after Manny in the off season for DH or Giambi. All of this money to AJ kind of kills that plan...
        http://www.blackbetsy.com/movies/joeatbat.mpg

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        • #5
          The urgency to get another SP is more now that Marcum isn't around next year but I don't know if giving AJ another long term deal is the answer. Me don't think it's coincidence he stays off the DL during his contract year.

          But, if he can pitch the way he has down the stretch here, I'll resign him in a heartbeat at the right price. Never was an AJ fan but I have grown a liking to him this past year and I think he has to Toronto as well. They used to pan the dugout and he'd be sitting by himself, now I see him joking around with Doc and other players. Of course, that means nothing.

          I think the Jays reported offer of 4 years - 60 million is a fair offer but I wouldn't go much higher than that.

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          • #6
            Do I think he'll be back? I'm very on the fence with this one. When the story broke that JP may offer the 15 million per season to Burnett he seemed pleased with the offer. But then JP had to come out and say that the offer has not been put on the table and nothing is really in the works...way to go man...couldn't have at least said that's the direction we're going or something.

            What is he worth on the UFA market? I'd say he could fetch up to $18 million per season for maybe 5 years and possibly some teams will catch on and create a team option and tack that on.

            What do I see from him in the future? I don't really believe the speculation that he gets injured just because it isn't a contract year. Maybe it does have some effect on him, but I really don't see that being the key reason. Whenever he pitches, he does it with fire and emotion, and I just don't see him taking himself out of that situation just because he's not playing for a contract.

            Overall going into this off-season, I would say if we can get him for $15 million per, go for it. He's coming into this off-season the same way he did 3 years ago and take a little look at what happened. He signs for $50 or $55 million over 5, and 3 years later he's considered underpaid. IJf we can get him for 4 years at 15, who knows, his value may shoot through 20 and with the way the market is going and if he performs like this year again, he could be worth $25 million per. And when a guy is getting paid 5 or 10 million less than market values who don't have the option to opt out, he becomes an insanely valueable asset if the Jays really wanted to trade him at that point.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by babaganoosh View Post
              Do I think he'll be back? I'm very on the fence with this one. When the story broke that JP may offer the 15 million per season to Burnett he seemed pleased with the offer. But then JP had to come out and say that the offer has not been put on the table and nothing is really in the works...way to go man...couldn't have at least said that's the direction we're going or something.

              What is he worth on the UFA market? I'd say he could fetch up to $18 million per season for maybe 5 years and possibly some teams will catch on and create a team option and tack that on.

              What do I see from him in the future? I don't really believe the speculation that he gets injured just because it isn't a contract year. Maybe it does have some effect on him, but I really don't see that being the key reason. Whenever he pitches, he does it with fire and emotion, and I just don't see him taking himself out of that situation just because he's not playing for a contract.

              Overall going into this off-season, I would say if we can get him for $15 million per, go for it. He's coming into this off-season the same way he did 3 years ago and take a little look at what happened. He signs for $50 or $55 million over 5, and 3 years later he's considered underpaid. IJf we can get him for 4 years at 15, who knows, his value may shoot through 20 and with the way the market is going and if he performs like this year again, he could be worth $25 million per. And when a guy is getting paid 5 or 10 million less than market values who don't have the option to opt out, he becomes an insanely valueable asset if the Jays really wanted to trade him at that point.
              I don't think any pitcher is worth $15 million a year to be honest, especially an injury prone one like Burnett. Sure, in 5 years he could be making less than the "market value" but market value doesn't mean much to me because its the same teams that set the market value with ridiculous signings... you can thank the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs and Tigers for that. There are so many good pitchers that are free agents this off season, so I won't miss Burnett too much if he leaves.
              http://www.blackbetsy.com/movies/joeatbat.mpg

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              • #8
                There are many combinations of starting pitchers who can give you 221.1 innings with an era of 4.07. A host of decent pitchers could probably do this for a team and make under 5 million dollars doing it. It's not rational to pay a huge contract for AJ Burnett based on his innings total when those innings came with a not-great era. The strikeouts are overrated as well- how one chooses to get his outs depends on the pitcher's strategy. If you claim that it is good for his defense-independent statistics, you also have to take into account his 3.50 walks per nine innings as well.

                The wins are more a measure of the team's ability to hit behind him. I'm afraid his innings pitched just don't make him valuable on the trade market, but I guess teams with enough money have nothing to lose in taking him.

                Comment


                • #9
                  The Jays will be taing a step backwards if they can't hold onto Burnett, but maybe that's what they need now. Take a step backwards out of the limbo that is life as The Forever Third Place Team, rebuild the farm, build up the team aroun Travis Snider and see where you wind up.

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                  • #10
                    Though every team should re-stock their farms before spending big money to be competitive, I just don't think the Jays are in any position to do so right now. JP's job is on the line every year, and he's probably going to do whatever he can to keep it. And our farm system is one of the worst in baseball (though we're always fed lies that the future is very optimistic because of like 5 players in our entire farm system...) which will take a good 5 years at least to rebuild.

                    Added onto the fact that no baseball fan seems to ever have the patience to wait for it, it unfortunately probably won't happen.

                    Back to the thread, I think it will be a step back to not have Burnett. Toronto isn't exactly a team that attracts the masses and people will probably take less money elsewhere than sign with Toronto (sad fact...) and we need to hold onto what we can IMO. Even if you trade him after 1 year and get a couple good prospects, it'll be worth it if you can take Burnett's moved money to sign another player or 2 that can either help the team or trade for more prospects.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Imgran View Post
                      The Jays will be taing a step backwards if they can't hold onto Burnett, but maybe that's what they need now. Take a step backwards out of the limbo that is life as The Forever Third Place Team, rebuild the farm, build up the team aroun Travis Snider and see where you wind up.
                      Agreed completely, me tune has changed about AJ as of late, I think at a fair price, we have to resign him, even if we overpay him a bit. When he was on this year, we were a different club. Plus the status of rotation next year, with Marcum out and McGowan questionable for opening day, we need him in the rotation.

                      A little off topic, but speaking of rotations, does anybody think that Jannsen may start next year as a starter?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I think the Jays will at least fake trying to get him back into the rotation, but I don't think it'll happen. The surgery he had was serious enough that a good percentage of players never make it back to the majors. You take those chances, and add them to the fact that Janssen still needs to be stretched out again. So if they can stretch him, he also needs to be able to give quality starts, something he struggled at times to do when healthy. I just think with the injury, his delivery, and his past, the odds will be against him starting for us next year.

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                        • #13
                          Read about this not too far back, but apparently the Jays are looking at tabling a "take it or leave it offer". I believe the article said something along the lines of 4 years 16 million, but I'm not 100% on that anymore.

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                          • #14
                            "ESPN's Jerry Crasnick talked to A.J. Burnett's agent Darek Braunecker, who says his client will make his opt-out decision prior to the start of Monday's GM meetings."

                            Guess we wont be speculating much longer.

                            I say he opt's out and tries for the big money on either coast. Both NY teams are looking for starting pitching. As are the Dodgers with Penny and Lowe possibly gone.

                            One source I read said he is looking for $16M/year,the Jays offer is said to be around $14M
                            "I see no reason why a small-market team like the Twins or Expos can't continue to remain competitive, just because it lacks players," Selig said.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Torontos game plan should be as follows.

                              See what Boston & New York do, and react accordingly. If they both go out and bust their nuts on the high priced guys, we're not going to compete so we shouldn't bother getting ourselves into a big back heavy contract. Just sit around and wait for value to pop up, it always does with a little bit of luck.

                              If however the Yankees and BoSox play it cool and do not sign any big SPs (multiple SPs in NY's case) then we can pounce. The AL East will turn into a carnival if those two teams stay around the same talent level, and we'll have a chance to win the pennant. Right now, before the signings i'd go Boston 40%, Tampa 30%, NY & TOR, 15 percent each. So, if we can knock that up to 20 percent or 25 percent, which essentially means "if we stay ridiculously healthy, we've got a shot" I'd take that.

                              I think we should have done that this year, with one more big bat it coulda been a coin flip between making the playoffs and not, and i think thats worth the extra 10 million payroll.

                              Comment

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