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Bill James' Jays predictions

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  • Bill James' Jays predictions

    Noted baseball writer and statistician Bill James projects big things for Travis Snider in The Bill James Handbook 2010. He forecasts Snider to hit 26 homers and knock in 90 runs while batting .275.

    James also expects big things from Lind, who will hit .305 with 31 homers and 113 RBIs, but sees Hill falling to .283, 20 and 76.

    Other projections: Edwin Encarnacion (.259, 21, 69), Overbay (.267, 15, 63), Scott Downs (3-3, 3.67) and Shaun Marcum (6-7, 4.05).
    Where do these projections line up with your expectations?

  • #2
    Originally posted by babaganoosh View Post
    Where do these projections line up with your expectations?
    Snider, I hope will perform to those stats, its definately in his capibilities. However I do not put much expectations on such a young player.

    Lind is definately a good projection if not understated. Lind improved his hitting throughout the year waiting patiently for pitches to hit, he managed to finish the year strong and I would say is a threat to hit 35-40HR and 120RBI's next year provided we have the support group to accomplish that (players who can get on base ahead of him)

    Hill also is a good projection, I think this season is going to be a blip in his career. While he is going to be and is a really good player, I dont think its reasonable to expect a repeat in numbers on an anual basis. 20HR + 80RBI's is what I think his pleateau will be.

    Encarnacion is hard to gauge. He has the talent and showed at the end of the year what he is capible of. I think anywhere from being a .240-.290 hitter is possible with him (if healthy) and anywhere from 15-25 HR. I wouldnt be to surprised though if he tanked and had a terrible season.

    Downs if kept in the setup role can be a good reliever and I think his projections are realistic

    Marcum is a good projection, although if he gets going and recaptures where he left off I dont think it is out of the question to see 10-14 wins out of him with a 3ish ERA.

    Overbay is a no brainer, .260-.270avg, takes lots of walks and has slightly below good numbers for a 1B

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Woodman19 View Post
      Hill also is a good projection, I think this season is going to be a blip in his career. While he is going to be and is a really good player, I dont think its reasonable to expect a repeat in numbers on an anual basis. 20HR + 80RBI's is what I think his pleateau will be.
      Agree completely that this past year will be a blip on his career record. The reason being is that Hill only has good - not great - power. I specifically remember noting how most of his HR's just made it over the wall; including a couple that hit off the top of it and bounced over. He really did a great job of hitting the ball hard all year, but he ages, some of those balls will be warning track catches. I see turning in a .280 - 25 - 80 year and beginning a slow trend of declining HR seasons. His gap power will still be there for awhile however.

      All the other prediction from James I agree with, except for Lind who I see having a comparable to slightly inferior year.

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      • #4
        Personally, while I think Snider can just turn it on and put up monster stats once he gets on a roll, I'm not sold on him for next year. He'll definitely be able to put up much better numbers in a couple years, but I still see him struggling a little more next year. I'll go with a .250/20/70 year for him next year (RBIs much lower because he might still hit at the bottom of the lineup).

        And while Hill's power numbers will probably fall to about 20, I still see him driving in a lot of runs with him moving down to the 3-hole. He's a solid hitter with good bat control, so he shouldn't need his home run power to drive in runs...of course that's assuming we have someone on base

        Downs and Marcum I would say his predictions are the worst that they can do, but I don't see them doing that much better, so I'll say those are pretty good ones along with Lind's projections. Really hoping Lind continues to tear it up because I bought his jersey :P

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