Baseball = the toughest sport to scout?

[scrabblehack]

I was just watching the NHL draft -- I was thinking the MLB draft is probably the least publicized among the major sports (football, basketball, baseball, hockey). At the college level anyway, football is probably the #1 revenue sport, followed by basketball, then baseball, then I'm not sure if hockey makes a profit on any campus. Of course junior leagues in Canada get drafted too.

The NFL and NHL are 7 rounds deep -- NFL winds up going almost 8 due to compensatory picks. NBA goes what - 2? MLB goes 50.

Nearly every NFL/NBA 1st rounder makes it to the big leagues. It's a public relations disaster to cut the #1 pick even if he's a bust. NHL - may take a while; MLB may take a while longer. My guess is that the percentage of #1 picks that pan out in MLB is probably the lowest among the major sports. That may be due to baseball being a lower profile sport than football or basketball, but what do y'all think?

[dominik]

I was just watching the NHL draft -- I was thinking the MLB draft is probably the least publicized among the major sports (football, basketball, baseball, hockey). At the college level anyway, football is probably the #1 revenue sport, followed by basketball, then baseball, then I'm not sure if hockey makes a profit on any campus. Of course junior leagues in Canada get drafted too.

The NFL and NHL are 7 rounds deep -- NFL winds up going almost 8 due to compensatory picks. NBA goes what - 2? MLB goes 50.

Nearly every NFL/NBA 1st rounder makes it to the big leagues. It's a public relations disaster to cut the #1 pick even if he's a bust. NHL - may take a while; MLB may take a while longer. My guess is that the percentage of #1 picks that pan out in MLB is probably the lowest among the major sports. That may be due to baseball being a lower profile sport than football or basketball, but what do y'all think?

the main reason I think is that baseball more than the other sports is dependent on the level of opposition. In basketball this is easy. the quality of defense does play a role but generally if you can shoot 3s in HS you can do that in the NBA.
you can judge a player very well. If he has the tools to dominate lower level ball you can project this pretty good to higher levels.

baseball is different though. the pitcher/batter duel is the center point of the game. defense can be projected much better for example. but with hitting this is totally different. you can judge mechanics and power but how a player handles an 80 mph HS FB doesn't tell you anything about how he does against 95 with sink in the majors. a lot of people look like champs at the lower levels. HS stats mean nothing every drafted player rakes there.

but we never know how a player will react to the highest level. especially since hitting is extremely complicated due to the fact that the hitter has to decide strike or not himself. that causes a tough balance between agressiveness and patience which can instill uncertainity.

in pitching this applies too but it is much better projectable than hitting since you have a hard number (velocity) to measure. but in pitching there is another problem: injuries. I'd say at least a 3rd of all pitchers if not more have a major injury at some point. this can ruin a career quickly. so pitching is a gamble too.