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SI article on drafted HS pitchers flaming out

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  • SI article on drafted HS pitchers flaming out

    Super interesting read

    https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/11/19/ml...urgery-problem

  • #2
    Yeah they are risky, and teams avoid them very high in the draft. Often in the last years the best hs pitcher went like 5-6th despite talks of them being the best talent.

    overall teams are now more aware of the floor rather than dreaming of ceiling as a star. Many teams drafting 5-10 now prefer a "sure" 3 win player over a potential star who might fail.
    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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    • #3
      So the ChiSox got Bustcada AND KoBust for the best pitcher in the AL.

      ...no, Sale isn't 100% right now. Better than than a 3rd baseman who can't do anything well and a surefire TJ casualty.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by pedrosrotatorcuff View Post
        So the ChiSox got Bustcada AND KoBust for the best pitcher in the AL.

        ...no, Sale isn't 100% right now. Better than than a 3rd baseman who can't do anything well and a surefire TJ casualty.
        Yeah that trade worked pretty well for the red Sox.
        I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by dominik View Post
          Yeah they are risky, and teams avoid them very high in the draft. Often in the last years the best hs pitcher went like 5-6th despite talks of them being the best talent.

          overall teams are now more aware of the floor rather than dreaming of ceiling as a star. Many teams drafting 5-10 now prefer a "sure" 3 win player over a potential star who might fail.
          Interesting, I had the opposite take away. That even though the evidence is clear, teams can’t resist the temptation.

          honestly, I had no idea there were that many teenagers hitting MLB velocity.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by abc123 View Post

            Interesting, I had the opposite take away. That even though the evidence is clear, teams can’t resist the temptation.

            honestly, I had no idea there were that many teenagers hitting MLB velocity.
            HS first round draftees percentage is lower than 20 years ago. Still a lot fail of course.
            I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

            Comment


            • #7
              Scouts want velocity and will only(EDIT: Heavily prefer to) draft players who can get that MLB level speed before the arms and shoulders are fully developed. Then there's the tricks to improve velocity (EDIT:Roughly)by 5 MPH at the risk of their shoulders and elbows and soon they would need TJ. Then they can't throw as hard and never learned to locate their pitches in the first place, get lit up and then find themselves no longer able to play.

              I would love to see those durable, fantastic pitchers, but as the game pushes for hurlers in the triple digits and not actually worrying about control or innings or proper arm care/mechanics, it's going to continue.

              EDIT: Changed the verbiage to be more open ended instead of end all, be all message.

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              • #8
                The Thing is that velo is getting outs. There is an occasional guy raking at 90 but most aces and almost all ace relievers in mlb throw gas. Now is throwing 95 healthy for the arm? Of course not but pro sports is not a healthy thing for the body. It is easy to say get back the finesse pitchers but most of them just aren't effective unless they have like 95th percentile command and secondary stuff.

                I also don't think there is a big bias, largely if you throw 88-90 and you take you still get a chance in pro ball, the stats prove that velo rules.
                I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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                • #9
                  First it was complete game #s plummeting. Then IP counts. Then just effective longevity in general... all within the past 20 years, the last within 10.

                  Pretty soon we won't see starters lasting 10 years at an effective level, let alone HOF level, because they'll just keep chucking it in the triple-digits and getting TJ to get their blown-out arms back to 90% of what they were. There might be a lucky few who get to 15.
                  Randy Johnson/Greg Maddux/Pedro Martinez, and the other elites of their generation are the last starters who will ever be HOF worthy with 15+ year careers. Mark my words.

                  Sad, really.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by pedrosrotatorcuff View Post
                    Randy Johnson/Greg Maddux/Pedro Martinez, and the other elites of their generation are the last starters who will ever be HOF worthy with 15+ year careers. Mark my words.
                    I would say CC Sabathia is making a case for this. He is going to go over 250 wins and 3,000 K’s this next season. There are 13 other pitchers who have done that and all but one are in the HOF, Roger Clemens.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Colonel21 View Post
                      I would say CC Sabathia is making a case for this. He is going to go over 250 wins and 3,000 K’s this next season. There are 13 other pitchers who have done that and all but one are in the HOF, Roger Clemens.
                      Yeah, forgot that he's giving it one more go-round to hit those nice big round numbers.
                      That was probably an exaggeration. There will always be the Madduxes/Johnsons/Clemenses of the baseball world who stay elite long enough to build up great long careers and great traditional stat totals given limited or no injuries.
                      I'd definitely vote for Sabathia when his time comes regardless of whether he gets at least 4 wins and 14 Ks by next May or not.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by dominik View Post
                        The Thing is that velo is getting outs. There is an occasional guy raking at 90 but most aces and almost all ace relievers in mlb throw gas. Now is throwing 95 healthy for the arm? Of course not but pro sports is not a healthy thing for the body. It is easy to say get back the finesse pitchers but most of them just aren't effective unless they have like 95th percentile command and secondary stuff.

                        I also don't think there is a big bias, largely if you throw 88-90 and you take you still get a chance in pro ball, the stats prove that velo rules.
                        And that's fine that velo rules, but rather than train them and let them get stronger, they try to put their arms under undue stress and thus get the TJ instead of throwing with clean mechanics.

                        if Roger clemens, Tom Seaver, Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan could throw gas without injuring their pitching arm severely, doesn't that mean they were doing something right? And if so, why isn't anyone copying their pitching style?

                        Maybe some pitchers could only crack 92 and this gets them an extra 5 mph to be at 97, but the motion and changes have them at increased risk.

                        also, throw Aroldis Chapman for a guy who hasnt gotten TJ. He may have a small strain or soreness, but he never needed surgery on his pitching hand [EDIT: arm]. And the dude throws 100 plus.

                        guys out here throwing 95 and never coming back the same, just saying

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Modal94 View Post

                          And that's fine that velo rules, but rather than train them and let them get stronger, they try to put their arms under undue stress and thus get the TJ instead of throwing with clean mechanics.

                          if Roger clemens, Tom Seaver, Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan could throw gas without injuring their pitching arm severely, doesn't that mean they were doing something right? And if so, why isn't anyone copying their pitching style?

                          Maybe some pitchers could only crack 92 and this gets them an extra 5 mph to be at 97, but the motion and changes have them at increased risk.

                          also, throw Aroldis Chapman for a guy who hasnt gotten TJ. He may have a small strain or soreness, but he never needed surgery on his pitching hand [EDIT: arm]. And the dude throws 100 plus.

                          guys out here throwing 95 and never coming back the same, just saying
                          maybe they did something right. Or they were just rare genetic exceptions who did survive. Not sure untip someone can reproduce it.
                          I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by dominik View Post

                            maybe they did something right. Or they were just rare genetic exceptions who did survive. Not sure untip someone can reproduce it.
                            It's difficult to say that when they threw very similarly. Mariano Rivera, greg maddux, Justin Verlander bas similar mechanics too and they threw hard. Makes me wonder if it isn't genetics but that there is an actual safe way to throw

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by pedrosrotatorcuff View Post
                              Randy Johnson/Greg Maddux/Pedro Martinez, and the other elites of their generation are the last starters who will ever be HOF worthy with 15+ year careers. Mark my words.

                              Sad, really.
                              No love for Kershaw?

                              Comment

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