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modern basseball and common gripess

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  • modern basseball and common gripess

    I'm not sure why but it all came to me yesterday. We all know that strikeouts have risen in recent years and we've seen pitchers placed on pitch counts. I watched a clip yesterday of Vin Scully throwing out the first pitch at the 2017 WS and he called in Fernando Valenzuela as a reliever bc he felt a twinge in his rotator cuff, lol (as an aside, Vinny is a treasure!!). Upon introducing him, Vin mentioned Fernando's complete games totals and i was blown away, thinking that the league probably doesn't have that many cumulatively (20 in 1986).
    .
    How much are the two numbers connected? pitchers are training harder resulting in nastier stuff but they're also watched more carefully. down in the youth ranks, various orgs have differing pitch counts from 85 in LL majors to "we trust you, coach" (wink wink) in a lot of travel orgs. as a coach and spectator in LL, i've seen how coaches will try to manipulate the other pitcher's count by taking, etc. in game 5, Mookie Betts opened with an 8 pitch at bat and, as a dodger fan, i was already thinking that was a great at bat (the double he led the game off with was nice, too).

    is part of the reason Ks are more acceptable the fact that K's eat up pitch count? Hr's and crooked numbers are the primary reason that coaches have gone away from small ball and contact emphasis with hitters but is pitch count another reason for this?

    as a coach, i would tell my players that i don't mind strikeouts as long as it's a "good" strikeout". i didn't want a non-competitive swing (ass out, bat flailing, just to "protect") and would rather they strike out "gloriously" than tap it back to the pitcher. this was U-trip where pitch counts didn't come into play, but, were i coaching in a pitch count situation, i'd at least be cognizant of the added benefits of working counts and (good hacks on good pitches is first and foremost, but running the pitch count up is a side benefit).

  • #2
    Regarding Ks: the more power you have the more acceptable are Ks. That is pretty simple to explain: slugging is much more variable than on base percentage because a homer can generate 4 bases and a single and a walk only one. That means a guy hitting 5 more homers will get like 20 more bases just with that while a guy getting on base 5 times only adds 5 bases.

    historically in mlb on base percentage is always pretty similar.

    this season it was .322 and in 1969 (a low scoring year) it was .320. However slugging in 1969 was 369 vs 418 this year. So slugging is 12% higher and obp changed like 1%. That means generally power can generate bigger swings in production than obp. Ks are not not good for obp but they dont hurt lower so hitters like to trade contact for power.

    but of course that means you really need power. If you strike out 25% you at least need to hit 20+ homers in mlb to be even average. And with 30% you need to hit 30+ bombs to be even playable.

    also recently teams have started to emphasise contact a little more again. Empty weak contact sucks but if contact hitters even have mediocre power (15-20 homers) they can be very good. I think we have reached a point in mlb where power is maxed out. Players can't get stronger and bigger or have better swings and launch angle optimization is also almost over. That means any more Ks than this is negative. In fact this point is already reached. Power is at an all time high but yet ops is lower than in the late 90s.

    that means to improve more Teams will need to learn to whiff less while maintaining power.

    but this is mlb of course. I think generally you should hit the ball hard and not worry about a few Ks but it can't get excessive, I.e ideally amateur players should be under 20% or it is a bit of a red flag. But whether it is 11 or 13% who cares?
    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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    • #3
      Once again this year there were more strikeouts than hits. The game is becoming unwatchable. I haven’t watched a game from end to end since 2018. Even then, I read while I watched.

      It’s taking an hour longer (games are often four hours plus now) now to watch less action. The shift isn’t the problem with baseball. It’s lack of contact and action. If it wasn’t for obnoxious bat flips there would t be any action.

      I played through college. So did my kids. I’ve been a diehard fan for decades. MLB is losing me. I’m losing interest. If baseball is losing diehard fans imagine how many casual fans they’re losing. Imagine how many kids don’t want to play because baseball is boring.
      Last edited by JettSixty; 10-26-2020, 09:25 PM.

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      • #4
        Blame sabermetrics. There are numerous studies that say a strikeout is no better or worse than any other form of out with respect to run expectancy. Once GMs and MGRs accepted that, tolerance of the strikeout became widespread and an acceptable trade-off for extra base hits.

        Want strikeouts to go down? As soon as teams start benching and cutting players because they swing and miss too often, then players will start focusing more on shortening up and making contact.
        Coaching experience: Managed 5 Little League teams and coached on 4 others. So, what do I know?

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        • #5
          To sum up: low Ks are for suckers

          3 singles = 0 runs

          2 doubles and one K = 1 run

          It's really not rocket science. Swing hard. Chicks dig the long ball.
          efastball.com - hitting and pitching fact checker

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          • #6
            Originally posted by songtitle View Post
            To sum up: low Ks are for suckers

            3 singles = 0 runs

            2 doubles and one K = 1 run

            It's really not rocket science. Swing hard. Chicks dig the long ball.
            I think 3 singles with today's speed can score 2 runs

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            • #7
              One example of many...

              Last year the Cubs had 7 players with 20 or more HR. The StL Cardinals had only 3 with 20 or more HR. The Cardinals had the much better offense. Epstein built his team around power, but that includes a lot of swing and miss types. Against 4/5 pitchers that's fine. You get deep in the playoffs against better pitching of teams' #1-#3 starters and you get 1 WS title and start falling apart after that.

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              • #8
                The metrics say swing from your heels is the best way to score runs. It’s what teams are going to do. But it’s boring as hell to watch. I don’t watch as often. I’m reading with the game on when I watch. I don’t want to waste three and a half to four and a half hours watching a game on tv.

                If this is how a diehard fan like myself sees the game a lot of casual fans are long gone.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by JettSixty View Post
                  The metrics say swing from your heels is the best way to score runs. It’s what teams are going to do. But it’s boring as hell to watch. I don’t watch as often. I’m reading with the game on when I watch. I don’t want to waste three and a half to four and a half hours watching a game on tv.

                  If this is how a diehard fan like myself sees the game a lot of casual fans are long gone.
                  Yep, that and the GD shifts on so many hitters (who apparently now have no bat control to poke a ball through the almost completely vacated side of the infield), that now what used to be hits (those right up the middle, or to an F4 playing in short RF and F9 back at the warning track) have pretty much eliminated most of the otherwise hits...unless the batter puts it in the seats somewhere.

                  Booooring! When teams have as many runs as they do hits at the end of the game at times, you gotta figure something's wrong with the game...at least as many of us once knew and loved it.
                  In memory of "Catchingcoach" - Dave Weaver: February 28, 1955 - June 17, 2011

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                  • #10
                    I remember when the rule of thumb was a team should have half as many runs as hits. It meant there was action on the bases.

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                    • #11
                      Well my 5 YO son has been begging to watch a whole WS game (he usually has to go to bed by the 4th inning) but he isn't old and crusty like you guys...

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by pattar View Post
                        Well my 5 YO son has been begging to watch a whole WS game (he usually has to go to bed by the 4th inning) but he isn't old and crusty like you guys...
                        He doesn't know what he doesn't know.

                        In memory of "Catchingcoach" - Dave Weaver: February 28, 1955 - June 17, 2011

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                        • #13
                          Clinching World Series game ...

                          27 of 51 outs were whiffs. There were only 10 hits.It wasn’t Koufax versus Gibson. It was the parade of pitchers.

                          zzzzzzzzzzzz

                          I’ve seen more exciting soccer games.

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                          • #14
                            i believe the trend in less hits comes down to a couple less hits per game. i don't buy for a second that a 12 hit game is much more memorable or exciting than a 10 hit game, especially when there are fewer runs scored. i think it comes down more to a feeling that the change in strategy dumbs the game down and traditionalists don't like that.

                            the duration of the games is definitely a problem though.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by mudvnine View Post
                              He doesn't know what he doesn't know.
                              Ok so should I tell him the game sucks now and it isn't worth watching?? Whether you (or I for that matter) like it, this will be the game he grows up with....or doesn't.
                              Last edited by pattar; 10-28-2020, 08:07 AM.

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