90/10 Rule

[real green]

Can we agree that that 90% of professional athletes were the top 10% as youth athletes?

[bbrages]

How would I know that? Who would know that?

"youth athlete" can refer to an 8u all-star or a varsity starting pitcher...

[tg643]

Define youth. Nothing that happens prepuberty is an indicator of anything. An overweight klutz from my LL became a 6'4", 220 MLB pitcher. The scary (for most), dominating 5'8" flame thrower was a 5'9" backup outfielder player in Legion.

[dominik]

Can we agree that that 90% of professional athletes were the top 10% as youth athletes?

yes. but the other way round this doesn't work.

you are right that the fat kid doesn't become a pro no matter how many hitting DVDs his dad buys. talent shows early. but the other conclusion is not possible. you can say this guy got talent but what you cannot say is if he will be in the top 0.1% (MLB), top 0.5% (A ball) or top 2% (college ball).

but the important thing is the talent not the achievements at 10U ball. for example german prospect donald lutz started playing baseball at age 12 (playe handball before I think). this year he played in spring training for the reds. those guys are not good because they play so many 6U games but because they have the talent.

talent+solid mechanics means that you are really good. so it's not about kiddy ball but about learning fundamentals in young age and then let the natural growth and strength kick in.

[azmatsfan]

I know this doesn't have to do with pro athletes, but I've found that the kids that are Major All-Stars in Little League are also the ones that play HS varsity. Of course not all HS players played LL, and there are always exceptions of the big 12 year old that is done growing and the small 12-year-old that will hit that big growth spurt. But I'd say it's fair to say that a large percentage (I'm reluctant to put an exact number on it) of HS varsity players were LL all-stars or were at that level at age 12. I suspect this has a lot to with the fact that these are the boys who are really into baseball and are more likely to keep working at it as they progress through Middle School, rather than because once they've hit 12 it's been physically determined whether they will be a HS Varsity player. I don't see very many kids that haven't started playing baseball seriously by age 12 decide to pick it up and work at it enough to make the HS team. This is too bad considering there are a lot of good athletes that could learn the game starting at age 13, but it seems kids end up specializing in one sport at such a young age now.

As far as the ones that go beyond HS to play professionally, I don't know if you can say they are all the best players at age 12. There are so many variables, and the ones that make it have physical gifts that often don't show up until after they are fully grown. There are a lot more Strasburgs in the Majors than there are Bryce Harpers.

[real green]

Any age group less than 18.

Take every 6 yr old world wide and rate their athleticism. 15 years later, I would bet at least 90% of the 21 yr old professional athletes came from the top 10% of the 6yr olds 15yrs ago.

Sure there would be a few that would make it, but not many.

It's basically the same core kids from 5yrs old through HS that are the top performers.

[songtitle]

I think you have to separate pitchers and position players.

Pitchers are not always the typical 'athlete' (apologies to athletic pitchers).

And that's important as far as staying in the game, because you never know who will become a good pitcher.

[The Uncoach]

I think that's a wise distinction, song.

[Jake Patterson]

Can we agree that that 90% of professional athletes were the top 10% as youth athletes?

What age group???
5 no
7 no
14/15 maybe

[skipper5]

And that's important as far as staying in the game, because you never know who will become a good pitcher.

Over many years locally, I've seen a number a late-blooming pitchers.

I'm trying hard to think of any late-blooming hitters.

[shake-n-bake]

I'd have to say no. There are a lot of Herschel Walker types out there. The kid tg describes that finds another gear that others don't have and blows by others when they weren't paying attention. It's a horse race. There's front runners that finish and there's front runners that give way to finishers.

LL age "skills" are just not that important or a guarantor of anything. Puberty being kind and taking full advantage of the gift of testosterone and growth spurts is way more important.

[rbgrubbs]

Can we agree that that 90% of professional athletes were the top 10% as youth athletes?

No, We can not. There are hundered of thousands (maybe millions) of kids playing sports...any hundereds of pro players every year. That means it is more like 1 in 1000 make the pro level...not one in ten as your 90/10 rule would say.

[Jake Patterson]

No, We can not. There are hundered of thousands (maybe millions) of kids playing sports...any hundereds of pro players every year. That means it is more like 1 in 1000 make the pro level...not one in ten as your 90/10 rule would say.

Again, it depends on the age, but it would be safe to say that 90% of the MLB'ers were among the top ten percent as youth players...
BUT this is missleading and does not mean that the top 10% of youth players have a shot... it's much smaller than that.

The number I used years ago from the NCAA was 1:16,000 HS baseball players make it to the mlb.
I researched this a number of years ago and found there were approximately 660,000 HS players in the US.

[The Uncoach]

No, We can not. There are hundered of thousands (maybe millions) of kids playing sports...any hundereds of pro players every year. That means it is more like 1 in 1000 make the pro level...not one in ten as your 90/10 rule would say.

Your math doesn't match up to what real green is asking. The ratio of who makes it into the show versus how many were playing in LL isn't relevant. What's relevant is how many who are in the show were in the top 10% in athleticism while playing LL.

[Coletrain]

We have a kid on our team that is very small. He runs really well, has great hand eye, strong arm, and has above average power for his size. His dad is 6 foot or so, and his mom prob 5-10. So, I'm thinking this kid's skills will be thru the roof after he goes thru puberty. Am I wrong to think that a smaller kid with above average skill(at 7/8) will be a really good player in HS?