Most coaches, scorekeepers, and others i know who understand baseball, have a very good understanding of probability and logic. So, put on your thinking cap and see if you can answer the following probability question.

Here it is:

As you approach home plate to flip a coin to determine who will be home team, the umpire decides he is tired of using the coin toss to decide this, tosses 3 identical hats on the ground. He has you look away, while he puts a baseball under one of the hats. He asks you to chose the hat which is covering the ball. You choose hat #1.

The umpire then lifts up one of the other 2 hats and tosses it aside. (since he knows where the ball is, he shows you the hat that does NOT have the ball). He then asks if you would like to switch your choice from hat#1 to the remaining hat?

To give yourself the best chance to pick the hat with the ball, do you:

1. Stay with your first choice?

2. Switch your choice to the other hat?

Here it is:

As you approach home plate to flip a coin to determine who will be home team, the umpire decides he is tired of using the coin toss to decide this, tosses 3 identical hats on the ground. He has you look away, while he puts a baseball under one of the hats. He asks you to chose the hat which is covering the ball. You choose hat #1.

The umpire then lifts up one of the other 2 hats and tosses it aside. (since he knows where the ball is, he shows you the hat that does NOT have the ball). He then asks if you would like to switch your choice from hat#1 to the remaining hat?

To give yourself the best chance to pick the hat with the ball, do you:

1. Stay with your first choice?

2. Switch your choice to the other hat?

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