Which is worse?

[scorekeeper]

What always sounds funny to me is when the announcers says, "...evens the count at two apiece" for a 2-2 count. It's only "even" in the sense that the two numbers are equal...

There are many things like that that take place in the game, and most of it falls into the grouping of baseball dogma. Announcers only say things like that because they’ve heard it in the dugout or on the field when they played, and its become part of the baseball lexicon. Its just the opposite of saying the pitcher is behind in the count at 1-0, 2-1,or 3-2.

[bbrages]

What always sounds funny to me is when the announcers says, "...evens the count at two apiece" for a 2-2 count. It's only "even" in the sense that the two numbers are equal...

[scorekeeper]

...Granted, as has been stated in the past, a 2 strike count adds the outcome of a K that impacts the stats.

Every time I see stats put out in that format, I remember this paper. http://faculty.engr.utexas.edu/bicke...G_by_Count.pdf

[real green]

YR 2000 2007 2008 2009
0-0 .336 .344 .337 .338
1-0 .343 .341 .339 .340
2-0 .360 .350 .355 .368
3-0 xxxx .396 .370 .395
0-1 .324 .324 .339 .317
1-1 .325 .327 .329 .332
2-1 .340 .339 .339 .339
3-1 .344 .368 .350 .352
0-2 .160 .164 .160 .156
1-2 .178 .170 .179 .171
2-2 .195 .191 .194 .189
Full .234 .230 .227 .233

Granted, as has been stated in the past, a 2 strike count adds the outcome of a K that impacts the stats.

[scorekeeper]

Wrong board.

Sorry

[scorekeeper]

Jackaroo,

Thanx for doing that work, but you didn’t really answer the question. The reason I asked, was because lately the 2 announcers doing the Indians games, have gotten fixated on how many times pitchers have started 2-0. For many years, and I daresay even now in most of the baseball world, one of the main things focused on was 1st pitch strikes.

The reasons for that are pretty simple. If the FPS is a BIP, that’s a good thing. Either the batter was out, which is a very good thing, or the batter get on, which has both good and bad points. A bad point is of course that he’s on, but a good point is, it happened on 1 pitch rather than making the pitcher waste energy on more pitches. If the 1st pitch is some other kind of strike, called, fouled, or swung at and missed, it puts the batter on the defensive, even if its just slightly, and opens up all kinds of options for the pitcher.

Now if the 1st pitch is a ball, a lot of things switch toward the pitcher having to get defensive. Of course the worst is a ball that’s an HBP, but a called ball can be pretty bad as well for the pitcher.

[bbrages]

Doesn't the question really boil down to, which is better for the pitcher, a 2-0 count or a 3-2 count? Obviously the best of "any three ball count" for the pitcher is the 3-2 count.

IMO, a 3-2 count is better for the pitcher than a 2-0 count. I think that's what Jackaroo's stats show anyway.

A 2-0 count has a good possibly of turning into a 3 ball count. A 3-2 count has a possibly of a walk, but also a possibility of a strikeout. At least that's how I see it.

[scorekeeper]

RG, I have to agree with your statement and your logic. To me its simple. When the count is 2-0, the pitcher is neither pitching from a position of strength or weakness, because the possibilities are so wide ranging. But on any 3 ball count, he’s pitching from a position of weakness because the specter of a BB is very much in the picture.

[Jackaroo Dave]

In MLB in 2011, batters were favored in this order: 3-0 > 3-1 > 2-0 > 3-2

This is based on the results of an at-bat at which the count was reached, so many at bats were represented multiple times: e.g. an at bat with counts of 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2 in succession.

You can see a detailed breakdown on Baseball-Reference: Home -> Leagues -> All Leagues, Batting, then pick your year and find Batting + and choose splits.

Be careful to distinguishes results on a count and results following a count. For 3-2, obviously, there is only the result on the count.

[real green]

Any 3 ball got is better for the batter.

The outcome of any pitch is Ball, Strike, BIP,

3 ball count means a free base for the batter with next ball

2 ball count only means he gets another pitch

[scorekeeper]

Which is worse for a pitcher and better for a hitter, a 2-0 count, or any 3 ball count?