Situation-1st/3rd tie game

[omg]

Here's a situation I might have asked about before but I'm still not sure of the correct choice:

HS ball, tie game, bottom of an extra inning game, you are home team, runners on 1st and 3rd base, 1 out, defense has infield in.

Assume average for everything:opposition pitcher, batter, on deck batter, etc.

Should you steal second base? What are the pros and cons?

[CircleChange11]

Here's a situation I might have asked about before but I'm still not sure of the correct choice:

HS ball, tie game, bottom of an extra inning game, you are home team, runners on 1st and 3rd base, 1 out, defense has infield in.

Assume average for everything:opposition pitcher, batter, on deck batter, etc.

Should you steal second base? What are the pros and cons?

If the runner can beat the fielders to the bag without it being close, then I take 2B every time. Maybe even fake bunt to get the fielders moving (1B charges 2B covers 1B, 3B charges SS covers 3B) ... and 2B is likely wide open.

If the risk of a CS is above "very low", I don't, since the IF is relegating themselves to getting the runner at H and won't be in position to turn a GIDP.

The D is likely conceding the base.

[skipper5]

I would steal, then suicide.

[mudvnine]

Agree with "circle", go take the base to stay way from a potential double play.....which begs the question, why isn't the MIF playing back in this 1st & 3rd situation in the first place?

That in itself tells me that they're "conceding the base" and you may as well take it to prevent an additional force out at 2nd later on, should the hitter at the plate happen to K, foul out, or IOWs, makes the 2nd out without putting a fair ball into play.

Runners at 2nd & 3rd with two outs, reduces the number of potential force outs available, and thus increases the potential difficulty for the defense to make the final out of the game giving you the win, compared to the same number of outs and runners at 1st & 3rd, and keep the game tied.

RUN!!

EDIT: Oops, the "cons".....really none.

Even if the runner trips and falls on the way to 2nd, with the defensive alignment, he'd probably be able to just get up and trot there, or if they did scramble and attempt to make the play on him....both MIFers are turning and retreating backwards, making it difficult for the catcher to know where to throw the ball (hard to "throw to the bag" when the fielders are running diagonally backwards towards it), and if they do try to throw the ball to a fielder running away from home plate, they are more or less just asking for your runner on 3rd to score.

Ever see a player at any level (let alone HS), have to run backwards, catch a ball, stop himself, plant his feet, turn, and make a strong and accurate throw 127 feet away? I like my odds on that play anytime.

[JCincy]

Should you steal second base? What are the pros and cons?

Cons...
The kid slips going to second, batter hits a liner to the first baseman. He catches it and tags the bag.

[CircleChange11]

Cons...
The kid slips going to second, batter hits a liner to the first baseman. He catches it and tags the bag.

Wouldn;t that be a hit and run (or run and hit)?

If you have 1st and 3rd and are stealing second to remove a force play or take a base that the D is giving away, your batter should NOT swing.

THAT would be the con ... your runner is stealing second and the batter gets a centered pitch, which he cannot (or should not) swing at.

Another con would be if the runner tries to get too big of a lead unnecessarily (since the D is likely giving him 2B) and gets picked off trying to do too much ... or falls for the 3rd-to-1st move.

[JCincy]

Wouldn;t that be a hit and run (or run and hit)?

Sigh... You've never had a batter allegedly miss a sign?

[CircleChange11]

Sigh... You've never had a batter allegedly miss a sign?

Miss ... no?

Ignore ... Possibly. *grin*

[Jake Patterson]

Here's a situation I might have asked about before but I'm still not sure of the correct choice:

HS ball, tie game, bottom of an extra inning game, you are home team, runners on 1st and 3rd base, 1 out, defense has infield in.

Assume average for everything:opposition pitcher, batter, on deck batter, etc.

Should you steal second base? What are the pros and cons?

HS I would steal 2B, but expect a cutoff behind the mound.

[omg]

Thanks. I conclude: fake bunt on 1st pitch and steal on 1st pitch. Other team not likely to throw since infield is in and winning run is on 3rd. Downside is that batter has to take a pitch, although with the fake bunt, essentially a fake squeeze, pitcher is less likely to throw a strike. Other downside is that if you have the batter you want up at the plate and a weaker hitter on deck then there is a pretty good chance defense will intentionally walk batter after the steal. Still, I think the steal is worth it to stay out of double play.

[Bazookadale]

If I'm the defensive coach I walk the batter to set up a force at any base - the steal doesn't matter

[mudvnine]

Thanks. I conclude: fake bunt on 1st pitch and steal on 1st pitch. Other team not likely to throw since infield is in and winning run is on 3rd. Downside is that batter has to take a pitch, although with the fake bunt, essentially a fake squeeze, pitcher is less likely to throw a strike. Other downside is that if you have the batter you want up at the plate and a weaker hitter on deck then there is a pretty good chance defense will intentionally walk batter after the steal. Still, I think the steal is worth it to stay out of double play.

While I understand your logic, and don't necessarily disagree with it, usually, at the HS level, unless they're at the very bottom of the lineup and they "assume" a following hitter is "weak".....because schools very seldom scout each other to know who are the "weak hitters" on a team and who are not.

Besides, loading the bases with one out, puts a lot of onus on the pitcher to now have to throw strikes or potentially walk in the winning run....thus putting the advantage back to the hitter, as more than likely, the pitcher is going to be throwing FBs....as most HS pitchers don't have the necessary control with their breaking stuff to challenge the hitter like that, "weak" or not.

[CircleChange11]

While I understand your logic, and don't necessarily disagree with it, usually, at the HS level, unless they're at the very bottom of the lineup and they "assume" a following hitter is "weak".....because schools very seldom scout each other to know who are the "weak hitters" on a team and who are not.

Besides, loading the bases with one out, puts a lot of onus on the pitcher to now have to throw strikes or potentially walk in the winning run....thus putting the advantage back to the hitter, as more than likely, the pitcher is going to be throwing FBs....as most HS pitchers don't have the necessary control with their breaking stuff to challenge the hitter like that, "weak" or not.

These are those situations where a coach can allow a single incident to change the way he manages ... even when he shouldn;t.

If he steals 2B and the next batter is IBB'd to load em up and the next batter grounds into a DP ... then maybe the coach never takes 2B again, even though it's most likely the smart move.

I don't have any idea how often an unintentional walk follows an IBB to load the bases, but I bet it's higher than an inning-ending GIDP.

The situation also works the other way too. If the 9-hitter is up and you steal 2B, you may force the manager's hand to IBB the 9, and bring up your 1 with the bases loaded.

Still, in the end, if they're giving you the base, you take it. The pros outweigh the cons even though there may be times where you elect NOT to take 2B, particularly if your best hitter is up and you definitely don;t want him to take the IBB ... but that hitter would need to be much superior to the following hitter. In a bases juiced situation, you'd also need to remind the runners at 2B and 1B not to get aggressive on a fly ball (sac fly) so they don;t get thrown out at 3B or 2B before the runner could score. A heads up defense might try and make that play.

[skipper5]

These are those situations where a coach can allow a single incident to change the way he manages ... even when he shouldn;t.

Much wisdom here.

[mudvnine]

These are those situations where a coach can allow a single incident to change the way he manages ... even when he shouldn;t.

Much wisdom here.

Agree, always coach to put the odds in your favor, even if those good odds end up going against you a time or two.

Just like when playing cards, "you gotta know when to hold 'em, and know when to fold 'em.....ala Kenny Rogers.

Take a base whenever it's given to you......