Pitch to contact: many say it; but few actually sell it to their pitchers

[raptor]

You you read my post I stated a pitcher can't throw 90 down the pipe at that level. There's no deception bringing down the middle.

I meant deception of delivery. Certain guys have motions that are easier to pick up than others. I know some who can pipe it at 89 as their 89 looks faster to a hitter. If you always try for corners at 17 you may suffer from unfavorable chance deviation..where if you miss its either off the plate or down the middle. If you pipe it and miss its on the black. If a young pitcher throws hard pipe it!

[songtitle]

Put down the attitude and get informed. ... I've seen it many times in showcases. You need to get out more often.

I don't brag about my kids on every thread like some, so you may not know that my son has been pitching to D1/ACC/SEC commits/prospects and first rounders all year, including WWBA, showcases and camps.

[raptor]

Well, I don‘t know if “All the time” is an accurate portrayal, but if you look below I think you can see that it sure ain’t rare.

[ATTACH]114998[/ATTACH]

I have 11,008 records and 143 started with 2 strikes and eventually got to 3-2. That may seem rare, but you have to look at it in perspective. Of those 11,008 records, 805 started with an 0-2 count. That means about 18% of all at bats that started 0-2 eventually got to 3-2. Also, 47(6%) of them walked, and to me that’s pretty scary!

Hey SK..do you happen to have the opposing OBP of those 805 at bats..break it down into those at bats where the next pitch was either a strikeout or put in play..versus those in which the next pitch was a ball. If the 0-2 was a foul ball then keep it rolling. Interesting data.

[scorekeeper]

Hey SK..do you happen to have the opposing OBP of those 805 at bats..break it down into those at bats where the next pitch was either a strikeout or put in play..versus those in which the next pitch was a ball. If the 0-2 was a foul ball then keep it rolling. Interesting data.

Gotta have a correction before I go any further. When I was looking at how many started with an 0-2 count, I saw 805, but without my glasses on, I didn’t notice there was a 1 in front of the result. So, instead of 805 records starting at 0-2, it was 1,805. That makes it 8% rather than 18% that eventually got to 3-2. My apologies.

Next:

ABs that started 0-2.

Bb – 47
HBP – 42
HITS – 262
OUTS – 527
K – 860

262+47+42 / ((262+527+860)+47+42) = 351/1738 = .201

I could break it down further, but to tell the truth its not like I could do it in a couple of minutes, so I’ll have to pass. Sorry. But if you’d like to do it yourself, I’ll gladly send you a copy of the data in EXCEL. Just PM me an email address.

[tg643]

I meant deception of delivery. Certain guys have motions that are easier to pick up than others. I know some who can pipe it at 89 as their 89 looks faster to a hitter. If you always try for corners at 17 you may suffer from unfavorable chance deviation..where if you miss its either off the plate or down the middle. If you pipe it and miss its on the black. If a young pitcher throws hard pipe it!

And I said down the pipe. That's what you responded to. If a pitcher winds up and pipes one he's not pitching to contact. He's pitching BP.

[tg643]

I don't brag about my kids on every thread like some, so you may not know that my son has been pitching to D1/ACC/SEC commits/prospects and first rounders all year, including WWBA, showcases and camps.

Then you know I'm right. 90 down the pipe is BP. Kids at this level can handle 90.

[raptor]

I believe in the next pitch being outside the strike zone at 0-2 and 1-2. But after that go after the hitter. This does not mean come down the pipe. That's batting practice in high school unless a pitcher is 87+. In travel it's bp until about 92.

I'm just responding to this Tg..
So with 0-2 you want nibble, nibble, then hit a spot on 2-2. Because if you happen to throw a 91 mph fastball over the plate on 1-2 its a bad idea? The trait of fearlessness and challenging hitters with your plus fastball is desirable correct?

[mudvnine]

Well, I don‘t know if “All the time” is an accurate portrayal, but if you look below I think you can see that it sure ain’t rare.

[ATTACH]114998[/ATTACH]

I have 11,008 records and 143 started with 2 strikes and eventually got to 3-2. That may seem rare, but you have to look at it in perspective. Of those 11,008 records, 805 started with an 0-2 count. That means about 18% of all at bats that started 0-2 eventually got to 3-2. Also, 47(6%) of them walked, and to me that’s pretty scary!

Dang it SK, you have to stop ruining a good story with the facts!!!

Wadda got on TB players looking for a 1-2 offspeed pitch and getting a 90 mph FB down the middle, and hitting it like BP.....instead of standing there with their bat on their shoulder or swing two days late?

[NoonTime]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2012

Baseball Reference has some good stats on what happened ON certain counts and AFTER certain counts. (and lots of other splits too)

[raptor]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...=MLB&year=2012

Baseball Reference has some good stats on what happened ON certain counts and AFTER certain counts. (and lots of other splits too)

Thanks Noon...so am I reading this correctly: on 0-2 players hit .149, but AFTER 0-2 they hit twenty points higher? What does that tell us?

[scorekeeper]

… Wadda got on TB players looking for a 1-2 offspeed pitch and getting a 90 mph FB down the middle, and hitting it like BP.....instead of standing there with their bat on their shoulder or swing two days late?

Well, what I got is the big BS call. Just the other day I say Miggy Carerra take a called 3rd strike from a called up MiL leaguer. He’d been thrown 2 FBs and was looking for the CU, but a 90 4 seamer down the middle locked him up like a statue. Maybe the caliber of TB player is higher than one of the best hitters in baseball, but I seriously doubt it. If they were that good, I can point to at least 15 ML teams who’d sign them and have them skip MiL ball altogether.

[scorekeeper]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...=MLB&year=2012

Baseball Reference has some good stats on what happened ON certain counts and AFTER certain counts. (and lots of other splits too)

They do. But there’s a world of difference between MLB and HSB.

[dominik]

Thanks Noon...so am I reading this correctly: on 0-2 players hit .149, but AFTER 0-2 they hit twenty points higher? What does that tell us?

0-2 is usually a very bad pitch. if you put it in play chances are that the contact is not solid. after 0-2 you still put a lot of balls in play in unfavorable counts (0-2, 1-2) but sometimes you also get to 2-2 and 3-2 which might raise the BA a little.

[raptor]

0-2 is usually a very bad pitch. if you put it in play chances are that the contact is not solid. after 0-2 you still put a lot of balls in play in unfavorable counts (0-2, 1-2) but sometimes you also get to 2-2 and 3-2 which might raise the BA a little.

Right..what does it say about pitchers throwing strikes on 0-2 versus wasting a pitch, if anything?

[mcloven]

Greg Maddux's view on wasting a pitch on an 0-2 count:

http://books.google.com/books?id=IMuovQfGdj8C&pg=PA61&lpg=PA61&dq=wasting+pitch+on+0-2&source=bl&ots=Q0CIyrNkic&sig=Qr831ujyc-zzgYzUHB1O8XOXxe0&hl=en&sa=X&ei=4KJZUN7rMIyq8ASMxoCIAg&ved=0CDAQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q=wasting%20pitch%20on%200-2&f=false

To me, my strategy on 0-2 when I'm calling a game is to call my pitcher's best/hardest to square up pitch (including type and location) and let the batter deal with it. Many batters assume an 0-2 pitch is going to be wasted, so they're already behind the 8 ball if it's a tough pitch in the zone. And, if they don't assume it's going to be wasted, they're still going to have to deal with a pitch that's hard to hit, and they're generally on the defensive anyway (in "protect" mode)...you're likely to get weak contact at best.

My entire pitch calling philosophy is trying to keep the batter's timing off, either due to location or pitch selection or both. When my pitcher is ahead, it's easier to accomplish this. My goal is generally to get a swing and a miss, but, even if the result is contact, if the batter's timing is off, ideally the contact will be weak (in my view, weak contact is pretty close to a swing and a miss). I don't really want my pitcher thinking of pitching to contact or pitching away from contact. If my pitcher has strike-out stuff, I'm perfectly fine with strikeouts.