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  • #61
    Originally posted by omg View Post
    .647 moved up with zero outs or eventually moved up?
    The criteria was 1st and 2nd no out, so that’s what I quoted. Remember how I do things. The lead runner is the key, so I’m saying there were 17 times where a batter came up with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs, and 11 of those times after the AB the runner on 2nd had moved at least to 3rd.

    How many of the 17 were the runners moved up with an out recorded?
    I’ll allow you to count them.

    pbi4.pdf
    The pitcher who’s afraid to throw strikes, will soon be standing in the shower with the hitter who's afraid to swing.

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    • #62
      Originally posted by scorekeeper View Post
      The criteria was 1st and 2nd no out, so that’s what I quoted. Remember how I do things. The lead runner is the key, so I’m saying there were 17 times where a batter came up with runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs, and 11 of those times after the AB the runner on 2nd had moved at least to 3rd.

      I’ll allow you to count them.

      [ATTACH]116235[/ATTACH]
      I tried but didn't see how I could figure out, for example, if a batter grounded to short and made an out like hitting into a double play. Yes, the runner advances to 3rd but, no, it's not a positive result. See what I'm getting at?
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      • #63
        Originally posted by omg View Post
        I tried but didn't see how I could figure out, for example, if a batter grounded to short and made an out like hitting into a double play. Yes, the runner advances to 3rd but, no, it's not a positive result. See what I'm getting at?
        Well, here’s where great minds have difficulty coming together. My MRU metric isn’t intended to show positive vs negative results from every conceivable perspective. When I developed it, it was to see if I could come up with a way to show a hitter’s positive contributions better than an RBI, BA, or OBP. IMHO, its more often beneficial to move a lead runner than not, even if it
        involves a double play.

        Here are the possible outcomes of an AB with no outs and runners on 1st and 2nd.

        3 outs on a triple play would be the worst of all possible outcomes. 3 runs without costing an out would be the best outcome. So everything else is between those two extremes. That leaves us let trying to decide which of the other outcomes is better than the others. FI, 3 on and no outs is pretty good, but is it as good as 2 runs and 1 out?

        I’ll put up a queue of result. Hopefully I’ll get things in the right order and not miss any.
        • No outs 3 runs in.
          No outs 2 runs in, runner on 3rd.
          No outs 1 run in, runners on 2nd and 3rd.
          No outs bases loaded.

          1 out 2 runs in no runners on.
          1 out 1 run in runner on 3rd.
          1 out 1 run in runner on 2rd.
          1 out 1 run in runner on 1st.
          1 out runners on 2nd and 3rd.
          1 out runners on 1st and 3rd.
          1 out runners on 1st and 2nd.

          2 outs 1 run in.
          2 outs runner on 3rd.
          2 outs runner on 2nd.
          2 outs runner on 1st.

          3 outs


        So would a DP leaving only a runner on 3rd be bad? Well, it wouldn’t be as good a lot of outcomes, but there would still be at least 3 that were worse. In that sense its still appositive result, but not nearly as positive as it could be.

        In the end, there are many many questions still left unanswered even at the level of data I have, but many have been answered. I could press a few more buttons and mine a few other answers out of the data that’s there and tell the computer to track a few more data points to increase the precision.

        Unfortunately, the more precise the data becomes, the fewer instances of each there will be. I posited 16 different possibilities for runners on 2nd and 3rd no outs. In our one season there were only 16 times that situation came up, but how many times would any of those individual outcomes take place? Now even if we had the data for just 1 league we’d have something we could use to start answering more questions, but as far as I know, no one other than myself has that depth of data, so its really only spinning tires. Hopefully I’ll be doing this for another few years and I’ll re-visit this discussion and see what the numbers look like, or someone else out there will begin doing it too.
        The pitcher who’s afraid to throw strikes, will soon be standing in the shower with the hitter who's afraid to swing.

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        • #64
          Originally posted by scorekeeper View Post
          Well, here’s where great minds have difficulty coming together. My MRU metric isn’t intended to show positive vs negative results from every conceivable perspective. When I developed it, it was to see if I could come up with a way to show a hitter’s positive contributions better than an RBI, BA, or OBP. IMHO, its more often beneficial to move a lead runner than not, even if it
          involves a double play.

          Here are the possible outcomes of an AB with no outs and runners on 1st and 2nd.

          3 outs on a triple play would be the worst of all possible outcomes. 3 runs without costing an out would be the best outcome. So everything else is between those two extremes. That leaves us let trying to decide which of the other outcomes is better than the others. FI, 3 on and no outs is pretty good, but is it as good as 2 runs and 1 out?

          I’ll put up a queue of result. Hopefully I’ll get things in the right order and not miss any.
          • No outs 3 runs in.
            No outs 2 runs in, runner on 3rd.
            No outs 1 run in, runners on 2nd and 3rd.
            No outs bases loaded.

            1 out 2 runs in no runners on.
            1 out 1 run in runner on 3rd.
            1 out 1 run in runner on 2rd.
            1 out 1 run in runner on 1st.
            1 out runners on 2nd and 3rd.
            1 out runners on 1st and 3rd.
            1 out runners on 1st and 2nd.

            2 outs 1 run in.
            2 outs runner on 3rd.
            2 outs runner on 2nd.
            2 outs runner on 1st.

            3 outs


          So would a DP leaving only a runner on 3rd be bad? Well, it wouldn’t be as good a lot of outcomes, but there would still be at least 3 that were worse. In that sense its still appositive result, but not nearly as positive as it could be.

          In the end, there are many many questions still left unanswered even at the level of data I have, but many have been answered. I could press a few more buttons and mine a few other answers out of the data that’s there and tell the computer to track a few more data points to increase the precision.

          Unfortunately, the more precise the data becomes, the fewer instances of each there will be. I posited 16 different possibilities for runners on 2nd and 3rd no outs. In our one season there were only 16 times that situation came up, but how many times would any of those individual outcomes take place? Now even if we had the data for just 1 league we’d have something we could use to start answering more questions, but as far as I know, no one other than myself has that depth of data, so its really only spinning tires. Hopefully I’ll be doing this for another few years and I’ll re-visit this discussion and see what the numbers look like, or someone else out there will begin doing it too.
          Thanks for your work. The only reason why I asked is that you wrote "that’s a percentage of .647. Its really difficult for me to see that percentage improving very much with a slash/bunt.

          The .647 seems like a great percentage but I think you see how it could be misleading.
          Major Figure/Internet Influencer

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          • #65
            Originally posted by Roothog66 View Post
            We've been through the whole discussion before and it is known that I use the butcher boy play extensively. Some coaches don't like it and they let me hear about it. If they want to throw at my kids, as TG would have them do, I would argue that one play is legal, the other isn't. One is intended to do damage, the other simply has it as a byproduct possibility. rarely do the charging corner infielders come much closer than the pitcher who is far more vulnerable. However, once last year at a W/S event, I had the call on and almost panicked when the third baseman cam to within TEN FEET of home plate. Luckily, my kid drove the ball through the hole that the shortstop left to cover third and it wasn't close to the third baseman. The other coach threw a fit and wanted my kid thrown out of the game. The ump had to calm him down and explain that there was no rule against it. Where they played (michigan, maybe?) the rules routinely prohibited it. In leagues like that, is it common for 3b to charge that close? I guess if that were common in the baseball I see, I would never call it and I would completely understand some of the really strong opinions against it, but I just never see kids charge that far up the line.
            I teach my 3rd baseman, upon seeing the batter square, to take 3 steps, left, right, left and then read. Bunted hard go get it, so he should never be so close that he couldn't field his position on a slash. If your 3rd baseman or 1st baseman crash to hard they will be out of position to field a push bunt, which is more often used then a slash.

            No one has mentioned girls fast pitch softball. I watch some of those games and the 3rd basegirl is 15 feet from the batter, almost all the time to take away the drag bunt. Those girls slash all the time.

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            • #66
              Originally posted by HYP View Post
              I watch some of those games and the 3rd basegirl is 15 feet from the batter, almost all the time to take away the drag bunt. Those girls slash all the time.
              Hey, but the balls are soft, right?
              Major Figure/Internet Influencer

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              • #67
                Originally posted by omg View Post
                Hey, but the balls are soft, right?
                LOL. I don't want to get hit by a wiffle ball from that distance with those hot bats.

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                • #68
                  Originally posted by HYP View Post
                  LOL. I don't want to get hit by a wiffle ball from that distance with those hot bats.
                  Really, I've had a couple of people throwing me bp re-assess the potential dangers of the tennis ball.
                  Major Figure/Internet Influencer

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                  • #69
                    Originally posted by HYP View Post
                    I teach my 3rd baseman, upon seeing the batter square, to take 3 steps, left, right, left and then read. Bunted hard go get it, so he should never be so close that he couldn't field his position on a slash. If your 3rd baseman or 1st baseman crash to hard they will be out of position to field a push bunt, which is more often used then a slash.

                    No one has mentioned girls fast pitch softball. I watch some of those games and the 3rd basegirl is 15 feet from the batter, almost all the time to take away the drag bunt. Those girls slash all the time.
                    HYP, a couple years ago, we adopted Ron Polk's idea of using F4 to crash instead of F3. Works well, as it takes away the "push bunt", gives F4 an easier path to all bunts to the right side, and allows us to run a PO/back pick to 1B, and not have a fielder still trying to get there in time as I used to see more often than I wanted.

                    Just another option.....
                    In memory of "Catchingcoach" - Dave Weaver: February 28, 1955 - June 17, 2011

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