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How tough will your competition be this year?

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  • How tough will your competition be this year?

    Here’s a little exercise for those of you who believe in the importance of top notch competition. Using at your team’s schedule, see what the winning percentage of the teams you’ll playing was last season. The numbers don't include the Easter Tournament or post season play because we don't know who we'll be playing.

    Our opponent’s 2012 W/L-WPct records look like this.

    Non-Conference opponents – 200/110-.606 WPct
    Conference opponents – 66/62-.515 WPct

    Overall – 266/172 - .607 WPct
    Last edited by scorekeeper; 01-18-2013, 02:06 PM.
    The pitcher who’s afraid to throw strikes, will soon be standing in the shower with the hitter who's afraid to swing.

  • #2
    In high school -- otherworldly. We open up playing against the #1 ranked high school recruit in the nation. The #2 guy is in our region, along with many SEC signees and potential draftpicks.
    Rest in Peace Jose Fernandez (1992-2016)

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Francoeurstein View Post
      In high school -- otherworldly. We open up playing against the #1 ranked high school recruit in the nation. The #2 guy is in our region, along with many SEC signees and potential draftpicks.
      So how does the whole schedule look?

      We only play 7 games against 3 teams with losing records last season, and 6 of those games are against 2 teams in our conference. That’s why I was wondering how other teams looked in comparison.
      The pitcher who’s afraid to throw strikes, will soon be standing in the shower with the hitter who's afraid to swing.

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      • #4
        It just dawned on me that most people don’t know how to get the team records of their opponents. Actually, for most schools it’s pretty simple.

        MaxPreps has most scores, so try looking there. Here’s what I do.

        Got to www.maxpreps.com/

        If you don’t remember last year’s schedule, at the top of the page there’s a box titled “Find Your School”. Enter your school’s name there. After you choose the school from the list, choose “Baseball Var”. (I work with only Varsity) When you get to the team page, choose “More” on the left side of the page under “Team Links”. Then choose “2011-2012 Var”.

        With any luck, you’ll see last season’s entire schedule. Once you’re there, it’s a cinch. Just click on any team you played, and that will take you to their page where you can see their “overall” record. From there, its only a matter of going back to the schedule and doing the same thing for all the opponents.

        It usually takes me about 5 minutes to get the information, and the calculations are simple.
        The pitcher who’s afraid to throw strikes, will soon be standing in the shower with the hitter who's afraid to swing.

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        • #5
          I don't understand why knowing the aggregate win-loss record of your competition is important. You play your conference. That's out of your control. You play several more non conference teams that are typically not too far away. My kids played for coaches who believed in a tough schedule before conference play started to get them ready. You know your conference. You know the top players in the non conference games from showcase ball. You hit the field and play them.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Francoeurstein View Post
            In high school -- otherworldly. We open up playing against the #1 ranked high school recruit in the nation. The #2 guy is in our region, along with many SEC signees and potential draftpicks.
            Good luck. Gee, how is it that so many of those good players live in the same neighborhood?
            Major Figure

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            • #7
              Originally posted by omg View Post
              Good luck. Gee, how is it that so many of those good players live in the same neighborhood?
              Haha, I appreciate that. And it's because I live in Gwinnett county, and it's a freakin hotbed for athletes. Robert Nkemdiche, the #1 football player in the nation goes to our rival school 10 minutes away.
              Rest in Peace Jose Fernandez (1992-2016)

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              • #8
                Originally posted by scorekeeper View Post
                So how does the whole schedule look?

                We only play 7 games against 3 teams with losing records last season, and 6 of those games are against 2 teams in our conference. That’s why I was wondering how other teams looked in comparison.
                Well not every team has their info on maxpreps, but all I know is that out of all the non-region teams we play, all but one made the playoffs last year (pretty tough to make the playoffs here in GA), and our region is loaded. The team with the #2 prospect is in our region as well as Jeff Francoeur's old school which won a national championship last year (yes, national). There are two other teams who are perennially solid that should give us fits. As for the other 4 teams in the region, they aren't very good, but they could catch anyone sleeping.
                Rest in Peace Jose Fernandez (1992-2016)

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Francoeurstein View Post
                  Well not every team has their info on maxpreps, but all I know is that out of all the non-region teams we play, all but one made the playoffs last year (pretty tough to make the playoffs here in GA), and our region is loaded. The team with the #2 prospect is in our region as well as Jeff Francoeur's old school which won a national championship last year (yes, national).
                  Yeah, it’s a bit of problem that not all the info you’d need is in one place. I don’t know how it happened, but in our area all the schedule information is automatically sent in. So a team may not do player stats, but their W/L records are a done deal. I was told the decision was made to do that in order to get a more accurate ranking. Most ranking systems use strength of schedule in some way, and I guess a lot of teams were “forgetting” to send in info on weaker teams, even if they won the game.

                  There are two other teams who are perennially solid that should give us fits. As for the other 4 teams in the region, they aren't very good, but they could catch anyone sleeping.
                  It sure seems as though the best programs make sure they schedule as many perennially strong teams as possible. Nothing can be done about the league/conference teams they play, but those other games can be dealt with a lot differently. Unfortunately, even in our case where there’s a heck of a lot of teams in the local area, we still have to travel a bit in order to get that strong competition.

                  That gives me an idea. I think I’ll see how many miles the team has to travel for our scheduled games. Wasn’t too bad once I got in the swing of things.

                  WHEW! Using MapQuest, I came up with 499.7 miles! I knew we did a lot of driving, but I had no idea it was that much. Good thing its for a good cause!
                  The pitcher who’s afraid to throw strikes, will soon be standing in the shower with the hitter who's afraid to swing.

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                  • #10
                    Don't count on max prep stats. Some Coaches don't like their opponents knowing the strengths of their team. Some don't post stats, while others post misleading stats. A couple of teams that I know do this,have several league and CIF crowns.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Baseball gLove View Post
                      Don't count on max prep stats. Some Coaches don't like their opponents knowing the strengths of their team. Some don't post stats, while others post misleading stats. A couple of teams that I know do this,have several league and CIF crowns.
                      I don’t disagree, but while wins and losses are statistics, they’re a little hard to fake when they’re being put in by a 3rd party like ours are.

                      What statistic does MaxPreps post that could betray anything of significance to an opponent. Which pitcher, hitter, or runner has the best stats?

                      If its because he doesn’t have the time, I understand why a coach doesn’t post the stats. But if its because he thinks its gonna give an opponent some advantage I think its silly. With the weak data points MaxPreps and most other organizations like it keep, about the best anyone can find out is which pitcher or hitter the coach feels is the best.

                      They aren’t gonna find out pitch sequences, what pitches a pitcher throws or how he throws them, whether a hitter is aggressive or not, or knows the strike zone, or much of anything else important. I think its more likely that coaches who don’t do it who believe it gives them some advantage, are living in some kind of dream world they’ve heard about on a ML broadcast.

                      In 2007, our 1st year of varsity ball, I asked the HC if I could post the stats on MaxPreps. He said absolutely not. I followed his wishes and didn’t do it. The next season the parents got together and asked him to have the stats posted because they thought it might benefit the players as far as the next level, and the coach relented.

                      So, after 16 years of being a very very successful HSV coach, who had won several league and section titles himself, and having never posted the numbers publically until the end of a season, up the numbers went for all to see. I asked him about it this past summer and he just laughed and said it was a worry he never should have had, and was pretty silly.

                      There’s a big difference between fear without basis and reality. Like I said, what in the world could an opponent learn that he probably hasn’t already heard about by word of mouth?
                      The pitcher who’s afraid to throw strikes, will soon be standing in the shower with the hitter who's afraid to swing.

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                      • #12
                        http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...-nation/page/6

                        The #1 and #2 guys in this slideshow are both within 10 minutes of me.
                        Rest in Peace Jose Fernandez (1992-2016)

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by scorekeeper View Post

                          What statistic does MaxPreps post that could betray anything of significance to an opponent. Which pitcher, hitter, or runner has the best stats?

                          If its because he doesn’t have the time, I understand why a coach doesn’t post the stats. But if its because he thinks its gonna give an opponent some advantage I think its silly.
                          It's not "silly." Details matter. Anything you know about your opponent can help.

                          Example: If you have a slow-looking player who has nevertheless stolen a bunch of bases, do you want to make it easy for your opponent to know that?
                          If your clean-up hitter is hitting for a decent avg., but is striking out a lot, do you want to make it easy......?

                          If there were no such thing as Maxpreps, and the opposing coach came over before the game and asked if he could have a copy of the team stat sheet that you were handing out, would you give it to him? (Assume that you like and respect each other).
                          Last edited by skipper5; 01-21-2013, 06:23 PM.
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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by skipper5 View Post
                            It's not "silly." Details matter. Anything you know about your opponent can help.
                            Very true, but the operative word in that sentence is “CAN”. How many HS coaches are going to take the time to pour over an upcoming opponent’s stats to try to glean out whatever they can? But I’ll grant you that those that do, “MAY” fond something useful.

                            Example: If you have a slow-looking player who has nevertheless stolen a bunch of bases, do you want to make it easy for your opponent to know that?
                            If your clean-up hitter is hitting for a decent avg., but is striking out a lot, do you want to make it easy......?
                            “Slow looking”? What does a “slow looking” fast player look like, and what are the chances that if he has been stealing lots of bases, no one knows other than someone who looks at the SB stats in MaxPreps?

                            How many clean up hitters don’t strike out a lot, no matter what their average is? And even if you know he K’d every time he didn’t get a hit, what good would it do you?

                            If there were no such thing as Maxpreps, and the opposing coach came over before the game and asked if he could have a copy of the team stat sheet that you were handing out, would you give it to him? (Assume that you like and respect each other).
                            I’d not only give it to him if he asked, I’d offer it to him if he didn’t! I want him to spend as much time as he could not paying attention to what was going on with his team right before a game.

                            Given that there are some generally accepted criteria for putting together a lineup, wouldn’t that tell you just about as much as trying to pull info from a MaxPreps list of stats?

                            To tell the truth, sometimes I’m pretty flabbergasted by some of the things said in forums like this about HS stats. There are some pretty well respected folks who swear that HS stats are absolutely useless, then there are some folks who try to keep them as secret as the Manhattan Project.

                            What’s funny is, both groups are right and wrong. As you said, all information does have value, but what that value contributes to a team winning without having the kind of in depth metrics available for the ML, is questionable.

                            We have a local team who’s coach not only charts his pitcher in games, but in practices as well. If he does a decent job of charting, he’d be a fool to give an opponent those charts. The same would go if he charted his hitters or base runners. But those aren’t the kinds of stats anyone finds available at the HS level.
                            The pitcher who’s afraid to throw strikes, will soon be standing in the shower with the hitter who's afraid to swing.

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                            • #15
                              Skipper5: Details matter. Anything you know about your opponent can help.

                              Scorekeeper: Very true, but the operative word in that sentence is “CAN”. How many HS coaches are going to take the time to pore over an upcoming opponent’s stats...

                              You have a dim view of the IQ and work ethic of baseball coaches.
                              It takes very little time for a practiced eye to "pore over" an opponent's stats with an eye towards finding something useful.
                              Some days you find nothing. Other days, a couple of things.
                              You print out their stats, circle anything interesting, and it goes on your clipboard.
                              When their big athletic-looking 6-batter comes to the plate-- 5 for 20, no extra-basehits, 10 bases-on-balls--a first-pitch breaking ball would be a gift to this player. We're attacking him with fastballs.

                              It's ironic that a stat-expert such as yourself doesn't see the tactical value in having access to your opponent's stats...to the degree that you believe it would actually help your team if you provided the opposing coach with your team's stats prior to the game!

                              SK: I’d not only give it to him if he asked, I’d offer it to him if he didn’t! I want him to spend as much time as he could not paying attention to what was going on with his team right before a game.

                              SK, you're a piece of work.

                              BTW, in my opinion, white is white, and black is black. What do you think?
                              Last edited by skipper5; 01-22-2013, 09:32 AM.
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