When the Yankees will reach $1 Billion

[Hammerin Hank]

My prediction on when the Yankees will reach a $1 billion payroll:

2015 - 1,085,813,703
2014 - 920,181,105
2013 - 779,814,496
2012 - 660,882,624
2011 - 560,070,020
2010 - 474,635,610
2009 - 402,233,568
2008 - 340,875,905
2007 - 288,877,886
2006 - 244,811,768 (actual: 194,663,079)
2005 - 207,467,600 (actual: 208,306,817)
2004 - 175,820,000 (actual: 184,193,950)
2003 - 149,000,000 (actual: 152,749,814)
2002 - 125,928,583
2001 - 109,791,893
2000 - 92,583,260
1999 - 91,990,955
1998 - 73,963,698
1997 - 73,389,577
1996 - 61,511,870
1995 - 58,165,252

Note: Added actual salaries for seasons since predictions were made.

[The Commissioner]

They'll reach $1 billion when the rest of MLB goes bankrupt or inflation is so rampant in the U.S. that economic is completely destabilized.

I'm no ecomonics professor, but I'm sure we have some here at Baseball Fever. Perhaps, they could explain why this scenario is not very likely, or why I am dead wrong?

[Hammerin Hank]

My figures are only if the Yankees payroll continued to increase at the rate it has been this last decade, which is very unlikely.

[J W]

Even the Yankees have an operating cost .

[Chadwick]

Originally posted by CubbieFan7
My figures are only if the Yankees payroll continued to increase at the rate it has been this last decade, which is very unlikely.

Given that the Yankees 1993 Opening Day payroll was $40,405,000 and their 2003 Opening Day payroll was $149,710,995, the rate their payroll increased "this last decade" was a little under 271%.

I don't know what data you're using, or what kind of math you've applied to it, but that would project a 2013 payroll of $554,718,031 (rounded to the nearest dollar.)

The data above is provided courtesy of the SABR Business of Baseball Committee, chaired by Doug Pappas.

Your projection, not only maintains the rate of increase we've seen over the past decade, but increases it! What was your methodology? I presume you were just tinkering with numbers and stumbled on this. Else, what motivation do you have for projecting a billion dollar payroll?

The fact is that all of Major League Baseball (and all that encompasses) took in approximately $3.6 billion last in 2002. To project that, 12 years later, one club will account for a billion dollar payroll (not just revenues) is simply outrageous!

The value of the entire franchise is less today than the payroll you've projected for it a decade from now.

You nor I will live to see the day that any major league team sports a billion dollar payroll.

[Mattingly]

Originally posted by CubbieFan7
My figures are only if the Yankees payroll continued to increase at the rate it has been this last decade, which is very unlikely.

After the new CBA, which was aimed squarely at George, added to the Yanks trading expensive players in the offseason, I'd say that it wouldn't really increase that much in the next few years.

I seriously doubt it would increase to $200m in 2005, and jumping from under $800m in 2013 to over $1b in 2015 seems like something which could never happen.

Even given the YES money George has developed, I couldn't imagine this happening, then keeping ticket prices and advertising rates within sanity.

[Hammerin Hank]

Originally posted by Chancellor
Your projection, not only maintains the rate of increase we've seen over the past decade, but increases it! What was your methodology? I presume you were just tinkering with numbers and stumbled on this. Else, what motivation do you have for projecting a billion dollar payroll?

Bingo! But I also wanted to get the real numbers and this was the easiest way.

[Hammerin Hank]

Originally posted by Chancellor
You nor I will live to see the day that any major league team sports a billion dollar payroll.

That's the best news I've heard all day.

[Mattingly]

Originally posted by CubbieFan7
That's the best news I've heard all day.

If the Yanks wanted to spend to no end, they'd have put Bonds at $25m on the payroll last winter. ARod at the same price would've also have been on the payroll.

I'm not sure if you're half joking or serious with this thread, but I can't believe that George would serious raise payroll to the levels and percentages you've given here in the next dozen years.

[Zito75]

Very entertaining thread. However, this will never happen. There will be a point of diminishing returns. To translate this, even you guys will quit paying a certain amount of money to watch some shmuck buy a championship. It's like when you're in college and you drink 6 or 7 beers. It's cool... but it gets harder and harder to drink the 8th, 9th and 10th beers.

Not only that, the game of baseball would be so unrecognizable at this point. Joe Public would get sick of paying huge ticket prices to pay the salaries, which would cause a decline in attendance as well as TV ratings. There is a point of equilibrium, and I imagine we'll be testing that point in the near future, or else we will see the demise and collapse of baseball, which is already starting to happen in the NHL.

Personally I feel that A-Rod and Georgie Porgie are on the track to ruin the game.

[Hammerin Hank]

My prediction for this year's payroll was at 175,820,000. What are the Yankees really at right now?

[Hammerin Hank]

Originally posted by Mattingly
If the Yanks wanted to spend to no end, they'd have put Bonds at $25m on the payroll last winter. ARod at the same price would've also have been on the payroll.

When should we expect to see Bonds on the team?

[Hammerin Hank]

Originally posted by Zito75

Personally I feel that A-Rod and Georgie Porgie are on the track to ruin the game.

Now they've teamed up.

[Mattingly]

Originally posted by Hammerin Hank
When should we expect to see Bonds on the team?

Never! He had his chance to be on that 1993 team, just like Paulie O'Neill. However, he didn't bite, and George wouldn't bite when he'd wanted $100m/4 yrs when he was an FA.

As to Alex, we got him at a big discount, so George only paid retail, not wholesale.

[Mattingly]

Originally posted by Hammerin Hank
Now they've teamed up.

Just remember that individual player salaries, not some spreadsheet forecasting, is what fuels all this. Just remember the name of the man who, IMO, is the last $100m player:

Albert Pujols.

So long as we don't see any future $100m players, I don't see how anyone can cost that much, and all on the same team, which would likely be long after George either retires or (well, you know).

Perhaps we'll get Carlos Beltran f/CF next winter, or trade for him this summer, but I can't see him, and Vidro, and tons of others. Unless you're counting have every single one of the starting 9 having a $20m/yr salary, then keep adding another $20m/yr player every single year, I can't fathom a payroll so obscenely high (like it's not there already).