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When the Yankees will reach $1 Billion

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  • #46
    Originally posted by Captain Cold Nose
    Someone on ESPN Radio this morning said the Yankees have about reached their limit of what they are willing to spend on players. While that may seem very funny, maybe they are going to start taking a more responsible approach to spending all that YES money.
    When you're about 50% above what the next highest team's payroll appears to be, there *HAS* to be a point of diminishing returns. Yanks or no Yanks, if it were $150-$180m, I say they could've gotten Beltran. Right now, several guys making $10-15m on the same team seems crazy compared to what other teams are paying, compared to us.

    Most teams, if they had Jeter, would've tried for a chaper deal to keep him, and would've tried paying less to Posada. Getting Giambi would've been considered a luxury, rather than a must-have. After that, fathoming the thought of then getting A-Rod, striving for RJ, those would've been thoughts which are usually followed by one's alarm clock going off early when the rooster begins to crow.

    Before the Yankee payroll can even begin to go southward, George III will have to turn his interests away from acquiring the top FAs next offseason.

    While I'll readily admit I wouldn't mind one bit a trade for Sheets if his contract extension offers were rejected by the player, I'm surprised that this season's big acquisition (and resulting press conference) was a trade, rather than another FA. George's prior MO would dictate that it would be Beltran brought in, and the upping of the payroll by $17m each of the next 7 years. After all, he could be seen as Bernie's eventual replacement.

    Next winter could be seen as an even bigger example of where the Yankee spending is headed. If skimming from the cream of the top-tiered crop of FAs (while ignoring his own crop on the farm), then you're piling on endlessly. If George goes after very productive pitchers, position players on the "B" level, but who are going to give them all of their worth and at a lower cost, I wouldn't mind that.

    Two seasons ago, if each of Unit, Beltran and Delgado were available (pretending Giambi weren't here), I'd wonder if George would just want to take all 3, but may "settle" for only 2, and if so, then which 2? Next winter, I'll only hope that George has had his fill for an ever-bulging budget. Unless he's got Bill Gates as his financial backer--and an unlimited budget--I do think that George will spend a lot more pragmatically.

    If the Yanks can get a CF the caliber of Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter or Juan Pierre, then perhaps they'd have filled their need for a player w/o overstuffing on their payroll, which is perhaps one thing leading to the ever-bulging Yankee payroll: overdoing in one spot, but ignoring another.
    Please read Baseball Fever Policy and Forum FAQ before posting. 2007-11 CBA
    Rest very peacefully, John “Buck” O'Neil (1911-2006) & Philip Francis “Scooter” Rizzuto (1917-2007)
    THE BROOKLYN DODGERS - 1890 thru 1957
    Montreal Expos 1969 - 2004

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    • #47
      Originally posted by KenFougere
      - {Let me see.} What time is it now? . . .
      It's not soup time, Ken. No soup (or supe) for you!
      Please read Baseball Fever Policy and Forum FAQ before posting. 2007-11 CBA
      Rest very peacefully, John “Buck” O'Neil (1911-2006) & Philip Francis “Scooter” Rizzuto (1917-2007)
      THE BROOKLYN DODGERS - 1890 thru 1957
      Montreal Expos 1969 - 2004

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      • #48
        With their farm system a smoking ruin, the only way the Yankee$ can keep players on the field for the next few years is by buying them. Jeter's bitter complaint that "it's not the same team" after the ALCS loss last year is going to get louder and truer as this bunch gets older and older.
        The only way the Yankee$ are going to be able to build another 1996-2001 dynasty is to get George III suspended again, so the team can rebuild its core.
        Yeah, the AL East is bought and wrapped up for this year...after that, all bets are off.
        4 5 (7) 8 20 22 33 42 (44)

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        • #49
          Originally posted by Mattingly

          Next winter could be seen as an even bigger example of where the Yankee spending is headed. If skimming from the cream of the top-tiered crop of FAs (while ignoring his own crop on the farm), then you're piling on endlessly. If George goes after very productive pitchers, position players on the "B" level, but who are going to give them all of their worth and at a lower cost, I wouldn't mind that.
          You're forgetting something.

          After the 2005 season, these two contracts come off the books: Bernie Williams ($12.5 mill per), Kevin Brown ($17 mill per). That's $30 million that Steinbrenner gets, without raising payroll a dime, to land a star CF'er (which shouldn't cost that much, since nobody deserving of Vlad Guerrero money is coming up next year) and a starting pitcher (Tim Hudson, I'm guessing).
          "Simply put, the passion, interest and tradition surrounding baseball in New York is unmatched."

          Sean McAdam, ESPN.com

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          • #50
            Originally posted by ElHalo
            You're forgetting something.

            After the 2005 season, these two contracts come off the books: Bernie Williams ($12.5 mill per), Kevin Brown ($17 mill per). That's $30 million that Steinbrenner gets, without raising payroll a dime, to land a star CF'er (which shouldn't cost that much, since nobody deserving of Vlad Guerrero money is coming up next year) and a starting pitcher (Tim Hudson, I'm guessing).
            I figure that Bernie may come back as a DH, and since Brown's contract is untradeable, it all depends upon how well he does. So long as Bernie can hit and run, I don't see this being his final season. Hence the "?" in that thread under the NYY forum about whether this would be his final season.

            Pencil in Bernabe for $5m next season, and Brown likely won't hang up his gloves. If Boomer was given a 2-year deal by Boston, and Ancient El Duque Man, a 2-yr deal by the ChiSox, then those social security checks and the pension plan won't exactly be collected anytime soon.

            I'm not sure the Braves would part with Tim Hudson anytime soon. They'd be crazy to, unless TWC (their current owners, IIRC) are really pressing for cash.

            With Milwaukee's $223m sale, it all depends upon what they're doing with Sheets. If, like Oakland, they don't think they can re-sign him, as well as Minnesota and Santana, I can see George making a big run for at least one of them.

            If Giambi's not very productive, they'd definitely need a slugging 1B. I wouldn't say in the $17m that he, Thome and Delgado have made in the past, but I somehow see them paying $10m for someone who'd made $4m in the past and had a career year (which happens to coincide w/his walk year).

            This will be Matsui's 3rd and final year of his contract, and presuming he'll be easily re-signed or given an extension this winter, all depends. He could likely get $9m or more.

            Posada won't last forever, so within the next two years, I can see the Yanks looking for a replacement. Whether it's a star or someone very competent depends upon how much the Yanks want. If a star pitcher on the level of Pudge or Varitek (but not necessarily them), that'll be costly.

            Decisions, decisions. All of them can be costly.
            Please read Baseball Fever Policy and Forum FAQ before posting. 2007-11 CBA
            Rest very peacefully, John “Buck” O'Neil (1911-2006) & Philip Francis “Scooter” Rizzuto (1917-2007)
            THE BROOKLYN DODGERS - 1890 thru 1957
            Montreal Expos 1969 - 2004

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            • #51
              Originally posted by Mattingly
              I figure that Bernie may come back as a DH, and since Brown's contract is untradeable, it all depends upon how well he does. So long as Bernie can hit and run, I don't see this being his final season. Hence the "?" in that thread under the NYY forum about whether this would be his final season.

              Pencil in Bernabe for $5m next season, and Brown likely won't hang up his gloves. If Boomer was given a 2-year deal by Boston, and Ancient El Duque Man, a 2-yr deal by the ChiSox, then those social security checks and the pension plan won't exactly be collected anytime soon.

              I'm not sure the Braves would part with Tim Hudson anytime soon. They'd be crazy to, unless TWC (their current owners, IIRC) are really pressing for cash.
              About Tim Hudson: He's a Free Agent after 2005, which is why Oakland traded him in the first place. I can't imagine that Atlanta would be able to keep up with Steinbrenner in a bidding war for his services.

              As to keeping Bernie... where? He can't play CF in 2006. We're already paying Giambi $20 mill a year to DH (unless he plays himself out of the major leagues this year, in which case we'll be paying him $20 mill a year to sit on his sofa). Cashman's already said that playing Bernie at 1B is not an option. We have Matsui and Sheffield at the corner OF positions... and while Matsui moving to CF might work in a pinch, he's really not good enough defensively to be a long term solution there. There's just not a roster spot available for Bernie, unless he'd be willing to take over Ruben Sierra's role as the first guy off the bench (which I hope he will be). But that's not $5 mill a year.
              "Simply put, the passion, interest and tradition surrounding baseball in New York is unmatched."

              Sean McAdam, ESPN.com

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              • #52
                Originally posted by ElHalo
                About Tim Hudson: He's a Free Agent after 2005, which is why Oakland traded him in the first place. I can't imagine that Atlanta would be able to keep up with Steinbrenner in a bidding war for his services.

                As to keeping Bernie... where? He can't play CF in 2006. We're already paying Giambi $20 mill a year to DH (unless he plays himself out of the major leagues this year, in which case we'll be paying him $20 mill a year to sit on his sofa). Cashman's already said that playing Bernie at 1B is not an option. We have Matsui and Sheffield at the corner OF positions... and while Matsui moving to CF might work in a pinch, he's really not good enough defensively to be a long term solution there. There's just not a roster spot available for Bernie, unless he'd be willing to take over Ruben Sierra's role as the first guy off the bench (which I hope he will be). But that's not $5 mill a year.
                Isn't Sheffield an option for CF? Shane Spencer or Bubba Crosby perhaps?

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                • #53
                  For 2006, I was off by $50.2 million from the prediction I made in 2003. Maybe I'll be closer for this year.
                  Last edited by Hammerin Hank; 02-08-2007, 03:36 PM.
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                  • #54
                    Originally posted by Mattingly
                    I seriously doubt it would increase to $200m in 2005
                    Said in 2003, Mattingly. It was a good prediction, wasn't it?
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                    • #55
                      Originally posted by Hammerin Hank
                      Said in 2003, Mattingly. It was a good prediction, wasn't it?
                      Originally posted by Hammerin Hank
                      My prediction on when the Yankees will reach a $1 billion payroll:

                      ***

                      2008 - 340,875,905
                      2007 - 288,877,886
                      So just how soon will the $288m payroll take into effect?

                      Seems cute, but $1b will never happen. I don't see the Yanks getting a crazy number of superstars every single year.

                      Oh yeah, with the lux tax, the amount they'd spend for each hi-priced player wouldn't pay for itself infinitely.
                      Please read Baseball Fever Policy and Forum FAQ before posting. 2007-11 CBA
                      Rest very peacefully, John “Buck” O'Neil (1911-2006) & Philip Francis “Scooter” Rizzuto (1917-2007)
                      THE BROOKLYN DODGERS - 1890 thru 1957
                      Montreal Expos 1969 - 2004

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                      • #56
                        Doesn't this belong in BI? I mean if over/under, buy or sell, and bandwaggoning belong there...then this does too.
                        "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

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                        • #57
                          Originally posted by ChrisLDuncan
                          Doesn't this belong in BI? I mean if over/under, buy or sell, and bandwaggoning belong there...then this does too.
                          Agreed and moved to BI.
                          Please read Baseball Fever Policy and Forum FAQ before posting. 2007-11 CBA
                          Rest very peacefully, John “Buck” O'Neil (1911-2006) & Philip Francis “Scooter” Rizzuto (1917-2007)
                          THE BROOKLYN DODGERS - 1890 thru 1957
                          Montreal Expos 1969 - 2004

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                          • #58
                            Originally posted by ChrisLDuncan
                            Doesn't this belong in BI? I mean if over/under, buy or sell, and bandwaggoning belong there...then this does too.
                            That may be, but in 2003 we didn't have a BI forum. Sorry for the misplacement.
                            2016 World Series Champions

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                            • #59
                              Originally posted by Mattingly
                              So just how soon will the $288m payroll take into effect?

                              Seems cute, but $1b will never happen. I don't see the Yanks getting a crazy number of superstars every single year.

                              Oh yeah, with the lux tax, the amount they'd spend for each hi-priced player wouldn't pay for itself infinitely.
                              The thread was initially intended as some dark humor, but I'm amazed that for the first three years I actually underestimated the payroll.
                              2016 World Series Champions

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                              • #60
                                Hehe, this is a great thread, HH. I'm actually interested to see how close you were a few years from now.
                                Put it in the books.

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