Will we ever see another 300 game winner?

[GiambiJuice]

Besides for some guys who are old and have an outside chance at 300, (Glavine, Randy, Mussina), do you think we will see another 300 game winner in our lifetimes

Basically, do you see any of today's great young pitchers (Willis, Oswalt, Santana..) having any chance at all? I think the nature of the game now makes it almost impossible and 250 will probably become the new 300.

What do you guys think?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

All the hoopla about five man rotations, specialist relievers, blah, blah, blah is just lame. Of course we will see future 300 game winners. Maddux, Clemens, Glavine, and Johnson all pitched in the ere of five man pitching staffs. There are several pitchers who have 300 game potential:

Hudson
Mulder
Sabathia
Willis
Santana


Now, there is no guarantee any of these pitchers will make it of course. But they are having the types of early careers that can lead to 300 wins.

[Edgartohof]

People always say, "oh that records unbreakable", no it may be unlikely, but there is always a chance that someone else will come along and accomplish it as well. As far as seeing more 300 game winners is concerned, sure we will see more. But it is hard to pick and choose who will do it. There is so much involved in winning 300 games that with young pitchers, you can't really know what will happen.

First off you need a pitcher who is top of the line, one of the better pitchers out there, you aren't going to win 300 games, averaging 12 wins a season (Although technically you could), but you also need durability. You need to be able to last those 20 some odd years to accomplish it, and that is the harder thing to tell. You can see who has the talent to reach it (the Willis' and J.Santana's), but can they play for 20 years, with the ups and downs, getting past injuries, deal with the wear and tear?

We will see more 300 game winners, but I don't want to go on a limb to say who will, although the couple players you mentioned do have legitimate shots.

[Barnstormer]

I think Pedro could be the next guy (after Randy, Mussina or Glavine) to do it - 197 wins at age 33, needs to average 15 wins for 7 more seasons. Pettite also has an outside chance.

[Tigerfan1974]

Besides for some guys who are old and have an outside chance at 300, (Glavine, Randy, Mussina), do you think we will see another 300 game winner in our lifetimes

Basically, do you see any of today's great young pitchers (Willis, Oswalt, Santana..) having any chance at all? I think the nature of the game now makes it almost impossible and 250 will probably become the new 300.

What do you guys think?

I think there will be some in the future beyond those you noted.
I think they will become fewer and farther between.

The same goes for the 3000 hit club.

[GiambiJuice]

The same goes for the 3000 hit club.

Why do you say that?

[KCGHOST]

300 wins has become a very tough nut. A guy is going to need some longevity and the good fortune to play on decent offensive teams.

The 3,000 hit club is much easier. With the health and conditioning of modern players this has become a much easier, though not easy, task. Cal Ripken had 3184 hits over a 20 year career. Given the amount of at bats he had a .260 hitter would have gotten 3000 hits.

[Edgartohof]

The same goes for the 3000 hit club.

There are actually several legitimate cases for players reaching 3,000 hits.

If they decide to stay:
Biggio - 1 1/2 years
Bonds - 2 years

Depending on health:
Sheffield - 164 hits/year; 4 years
Griffey Jr. - 140 hits/year; 5 years

They are all still young and great hitters:
Jeter - 177 hits/year; 6 years
Man-Ram - 154 hits/year; 7 years
A-Rod - 184 hits/year; 6 years

A look toward the future:
Juan Pierre - 179 hits/year; 11 years
Albert Pujols - 183 hits/year; 11 years

I'm sure there are others out there with shots, but these are a few of the notables. Of the younger crowd, Pujols has the best chance, Pierre, does to, but he seems a bit erratic (good, bad, good, bad). A-rod is turning 30 this year, and will pass 2000 hits (as will jeter and man-ram), so in the next 10 years, he should be able to come up with a measly 1000+ hits. Griffey if he can stay healthy, or DH's still has a shot at 3,000, and if Sheffield keeps it up, he will too. If Bonds stays, he could reach it in 2 seasons (258 hits needed - 129/season), and Biggio should be sticking around to collect the final 205 hits he needs.

Anyways, back to the 300 game winners...

[RuthMayBond]

I think there will be some in the future beyond those you noted.
I think they will become fewer and farther between.

The same goes for the 3000 hit club.

You realize we only had eight 3000 hit guys up through the beginning of 1970, and EIGHTEEN since then

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Winning 300 games has ALWAYS been difficult. Through most of baseball history there have been only a few through each era. Then came the 1960s. This generation produced an unusally high number of 300 game winners. These pitchers debuted between 1962-1967:

Gaylord Perry (1962)
Phil Niekro (1964)
Steve Carlton (1965)
Don Sutton (1966)
Nolan Ryan (1966)
Tom Seaver (1967)

Not only that but it also produced:

Jim Kaat (1959)
Tommy John (1963)
Ferguson Jenkins (1965)
Bert Blyleven (1970)

all who won over 280 games. What this did was that it put the impression in many baseball fans that every generation should have 6-10 300 game winners and this historically has not be so. One reason this happened in the 1960s is that this was a time where 280-300 IP seasons and 38-42 GS were common.

But from 1941 (Lefy Grove) until 1962 (Warren Sphan) there were no 300 game winners. Also I tend to discount the 19th century 300 game winners a bit. With guys racking up 40-50 win seasons, 300 wins isn't quite the same as winning 300 game in the modern era.

[trosmok]

Twice as many complete games last season

Anyways, back to the 300 game winners...

Hitters, go get your own thread already.

More than any other sport, baseball is cyclical in nature, and the specialized pitching is starting to wane a bit, thank gooseness. For instance, last year there were more than double the number of complete games thrown in the majors, as there were in the '04 campaign. I'm banking that this wasn't a fluke, it is a pattern that will continue through the rest of the decade. There are a lot of good strong arms out there, even Pedro (remember the knock he couldn't go past 6 2/3 innings any more?) Martinez twirled a couple of nine inning gems last season. I see no reason why several young pitchers couldn't last long enough on good teams to reach that milestone that ends in a zero. I personally don't put much emphasis on W-L, but since nearly everyone else uses it as the best measure I do look at them. Glavine and Johnson are likely to hang around to get that magic number, Pedro and Pettitte have the most the quickest among the guys near 200. I really thought Russ Ortiz would be closing in on the lead for most wins at the youngest age among active pitchers, but that last season with the D'Backs was a nightmare (5-15? or so). Colon at 139 in 9, and Hudson with 106 in 7, seem to be the guys that could reach that 300 plateau if the arms last, the teams keep winning, the specialists go back to the minors where they belong, and especially if they restore the mound to it's proper height.:atthepc

[Boston Boxer]

I think Pedro could be the next guy (after Randy, Mussina or Glavine) to do it - 197 wins at age 33, needs to average 15 wins for 7 more seasons. Pettite also has an outside chance.

No way Pedro pitches 7 more seasons...he will be lucky to finish this contract out.

[TonyK]

Any change to reduce the offense will help the top pitchers in MLB. Add some luck with which team a pitcher gets to play for. AL pitchers with the DH don't have to bat reducing the chance for injury or for HBP's too. Throw in a 100 mph fastball, and 300 wins is possible. We may someday see more than 162 games per season and that would affect individual records.

[Astro]

Besides for some guys who are old and have an outside chance at 300, (Glavine, Randy, Mussina), do you think we will see another 300 game winner in our lifetimes

Basically, do you see any of today's great young pitchers (Willis, Oswalt, Santana..) having any chance at all? I think the nature of the game now makes it almost impossible and 250 will probably become the new 300.

What do you guys think?

Most of BF believes we will, as seen in my topic's poll from this summer

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=30194

[GiambiJuice]

With all due respect, a grand total of 11 people voted...I wouldn't call that most of Baseball Fever.