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Let's Talk 3,000 Hits.

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  • Let's Talk 3,000 Hits.

    I am starting this as a break out from the 300 win thread.
    I don't want to dilute or detract from that.

    I think there will be some 3000 hit guys, but I think the biggest obstacle is longevity. 3000 hits is 200 hits a year for 15 years. Most careers do not last that long nor are most hitters that proficient.

    What do y'all think??
    1968 and 1984, the greatest ever.

  • #2
    I think of it as 176 hits per year for 17 years. I think that's a more realistic number.
    Last edited by GiambiJuice; 02-09-2006, 01:16 PM.
    My top 10 players:

    1. Babe Ruth
    2. Barry Bonds
    3. Ty Cobb
    4. Ted Williams
    5. Willie Mays
    6. Alex Rodriguez
    7. Hank Aaron
    8. Honus Wagner
    9. Lou Gehrig
    10. Mickey Mantle

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    • #3
      Of current players, only Biggio and Bonds are threatening to get 3000 hits in the near future, but for both, it almost certainly won't come before 2007, when Biggio will be 41 and Bonds will be 42.

      Sheffield is approximately 650 hits away, but is 37. Assuming he doesn't decline too much, we're looking at at least 4 seasons before Sheffield get it. But a decline at some point in the next four years for Sheffield is just about inevitable.

      Griffey is just under 700 hits away, but he's 36 and with a history of injuries, so I don't think he'll quite there.

      Ivan Rodriguez is just over 800 hits away, but he's 34 and a catcher, so it's very doubtful for him.

      Derek Jeter is about 1050 away, and he is 31 and does collect a lot of hits and doesn't have major injury concerns. So I'd say he has a very good shot at passing 3000.

      Alex Rodriguez is just under 1100 away and he's only 30, so he too has a very good shot.

      After this point it gets much more difficult to project, given that the other players are still early in their carers. I'd say Ichiro would have had an excellent shot to pass 3000 had his career in America started a few years earlier. Given that he's 32, more than 1850 hits away, and his game (speed) is not the kind of the game that ages well, I don't think it's going to happen.

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      • #4
        3,000 hits no problem - we will continue to see these men - 300 wins is a completely different story

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        • #5
          In the last 35 years 22 non-pitchers have played 20 or more seasons. 10 of them have reached the 3,000 hit plateau. Six of them were not career .300 hitters. All you need is longevity and at bats.
          Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball

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          • #6
            Player...........age......hits needed to reach 3,000
            Biggio...........40........205
            Bonds...........41........258
            -----------------------------
            Sheffield.......37........655
            Griffey Jr.......36........696
            ----------------------------
            Jeter............32........1064
            Man-Ram......34........1078
            A-Rod..........30........1099
            ----------------------------
            J. Pierre.......28........1960
            Pujols...........26........2018

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            • #7
              Vlad just turned 31 and he's over halfway there. He averages almost 200 hits per 162, but health is a concern, he may not see many more 150+ game seasons, but if he does- with his skills and his free swinging ways, he's good for 180+ per season.
              THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

              In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

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              • #8
                The record for most hits in one season was just broken by Ichiro. As long as changes aren't made to help pitchers then players will keep topping 200 hits per season. With the DH in the AL, some older players can last 3 or 4 more seasons to reach 3,000.
                "He's tougher than a railroad sandwich."
                "You'se Got The Eye Of An Eagle."

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                • #9
                  I really can't stand that 3000 hits is seen as such a milestone. It rewards not walking, and it makes guys like Lou Brock seem better than they really were. It looks like even Edgar Renteria has a decent shot at this point, and he is in no way a great player.

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                  • #10
                    Those milestones that end in two (or three) zeroes

                    Originally posted by Tigerfan1974
                    I am starting this as a break out from the 300 win thread.
                    I don't want to dilute or detract from that.

                    Thanks; I was just funnin' witcha on the other one, but this gave me a chance to do a little research.

                    As I alluded to in the title, I don't put much credence in a measure of a player strictly by his stats, particularly those deceptive instances like Dasperp mentioned. Even more unsound are the emphases placed on W-L, or sheer numbers of hits, without looking at the big picture.

                    With regard to the 3000 hit club, only one player acheived that in a 15 year career that I know of: George Sisler. Being a lifetime .340 hitter sure helps, so longevity is indeed a key today, seeing as there are so few .320 or better hitters around. Twenty years seems to be the length required anymore to have a decent shot at the rather meaninigless milestone, although having a .300+ BA is extremely helpful. Raffy, Yount, Gwynn, Carew, Brock all did it in 19-20 years; it only took Boggs 18, as it did perhaps the best all-around player of the bunch that I've seen reach the 3000 hits mark, hit it exactly in his last MLB at bat, the late, great Roberto Clemente.
                    Last edited by trosmok; 02-10-2006, 08:56 AM.
                    Baseball is a ballet without music. Drama without words ~Ernie Harwell

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                    • #11
                      giambijuice's "176 hits per year for 17 years" puts 3,000 in perspective pretty well.

                      citing lack of at-bats, and retirement after the 2007 season, i think that bonds will fall short of 3,000.
                      sheffield, though, oughtta make it.
                      "you don't have to burn books to destroy a culture. just get people to stop reading them." -ray bradbury

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                      • #12
                        wouldnt surprise me to see Michael Young get it

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by digglahhh
                          Vlad just turned 31 and he's over halfway there. He averages almost 200 hits per 162, but health is a concern, he may not see many more 150+ game seasons, but if he does- with his skills and his free swinging ways, he's good for 180+ per season.
                          Yesterday Vlad just turned 30, not 31.

                          http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/guerrvl01.shtml
                          Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by digglahhh
                            Vlad just turned 31 and he's over halfway there. He averages almost 200 hits per 162, but health is a concern, he may not see many more 150+ game seasons, but if he does- with his skills and his free swinging ways, he's good for 180+ per season.
                            Vlad isn't necessarily the kind of player who seems to be in for a good career past age 30 though. Free swinging power hitters don't tend to age too well.

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                            • #15
                              Good catch, HWR.

                              Vlad is more than a power hitter, he is an all around hitter. I think health would be his most important factor, not mere decline. His free swinging style is precisely what makes him a 3000 hit candidate as he doesn't take too many walks.
                              THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

                              In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

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