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  • #16
    Originally posted by Mongoose View Post
    The Player's Union sold younger players down the river to allow veterans to keep getting big contracts unimpeded by any talk of a salary cap.

    The owners turned around and stopped offering big contracts to older players because they could get younger players on coolie wages.

    The Players Union was stupid as hell to allow the three years of minimum salary and then three more years of peonage.

    Otani and everybody else should be able to offer their services at market rates, just like anybody else in any other professional arena.
    it wasn't a Problem for the Union because Young Players had no power in the Union and the veterans sacrificed them to increase their own earnings (no salary cap, max contracts, guaranteed contracts....). however now it starts to become a Problem because many GMs now stop hiring mediocre veterans and replace them with cheap rookies. top veterans of course still get a Job but the Gm now prefers a 0.9 WAR wage slave over a washed up Veteran that produces 1.2 WAR but costs 7M. that saves a lot of Money that can be invested otherwise with Little loss of production.

    however Long term the GMs might hurt their owners with that because owners were living quite well with overpaying veterans and saving Money on productive Young Players (the Overall Players share steadily went down the last 15 years), basically Union and owners had a collusion against the Young Players so that both could make Money.

    but if the GMs overdo that and cut more into the veterans earnings they might force the Union into a strike which could endanger the exploitation of Young Players. for the individual GM it is best practice to save the Money but for the collective of owners it would make sense for the Teams to not squeeze the veterans too hard so they continue to help exploiting the Young guys.
    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by dominik View Post

      it wasn't a Problem for the Union because Young Players had no power in the Union and the veterans sacrificed them to increase their own earnings (no salary cap, max contracts, guaranteed contracts....). however now it starts to become a Problem because many GMs now stop hiring mediocre veterans and replace them with cheap rookies. top veterans of course still get a Job but the Gm now prefers a 0.9 WAR wage slave over a washed up Veteran that produces 1.2 WAR but costs 7M. that saves a lot of Money that can be invested otherwise with Little loss of production.

      however Long term the GMs might hurt their owners with that because owners were living quite well with overpaying veterans and saving Money on productive Young Players (the Overall Players share steadily went down the last 15 years), basically Union and owners had a collusion against the Young Players so that both could make Money.

      but if the GMs overdo that and cut more into the veterans earnings they might force the Union into a strike which could endanger the exploitation of Young Players. for the individual GM it is best practice to save the Money but for the collective of owners it would make sense for the Teams to not squeeze the veterans too hard so they continue to help exploiting the Young guys.
      Makes sense, but strange to think of the MLBPA colluding against their own members and future members. The GMs are just doing the owners' bidding in cutting payroll. Seems like the MLBPA agreed to something without projecting the logical outcomes of it.

      In this world, sometimes you don't have leverage and have to accept sub-ideal terms. In this case all Otani has to do is let a little time pass. There's no guarantee he won't be used and abused by whichever team he winds up with. Who knows if he'll make it to a big free agent contract? Take your money while you're able bodied. If he doesn't he's a fool.


      "The Fightin' Met With Two Heads" - Mike Tyson/Ray Knight!

      Comment


      • #18
        That's not limited to MLB. The NYPBA consistently uses starting salaries as the bargaining chip in its contract talks with City Hall.

        Patrolmen's Benevolent Association | New York Post

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Mongoose View Post

          Makes sense, but strange to think of the MLBPA colluding against their own members and future members. The GMs are just doing the owners' bidding in cutting payroll. Seems like the MLBPA agreed to something without projecting the logical outcomes of it.

          In this world, sometimes you don't have leverage and have to accept sub-ideal terms. In this case all Otani has to do is let a little time pass. There's no guarantee he won't be used and abused by whichever team he winds up with. Who knows if he'll make it to a big free agent contract? Take your money while you're able bodied. If he doesn't he's a fool.
          well they were thinking short term just like fishermen fishing too much fish so that their see gets empty. the 29 year old mlbpa member probably thinks that this is the problem of the next generation, he wants to get his paycheck.

          from a money perspective otani is stupid to come to the US. he actually now makes about 3 times as much in japan as he would in his first mlb year (1.5M). lets assume he gets that 5M maximum signing bonus he will have like 6M after his first 2 mlb years. by staying in japan those two years he would at least make 3M but probably like 4M since he likely would get a little raise (but not much). so even if he has a career ending injury he still isn't losing that much money. about 2M less guaranteed IMO doesn't make it worth punting the chance for a 200M contract- he isn't a poor domenican kid but a pro athlete making 1.5 M a year plus a lot of advertisement revenue.
          I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by dominik View Post

            it wasn't a Problem for the Union because Young Players had no power in the Union and the veterans sacrificed them to increase their own earnings (no salary cap, max contracts, guaranteed contracts....). however now it starts to become a Problem because many GMs now stop hiring mediocre veterans and replace them with cheap rookies. top veterans of course still get a Job but the Gm now prefers a 0.9 WAR wage slave over a washed up Veteran that produces 1.2 WAR but costs 7M. that saves a lot of Money that can be invested otherwise with Little loss of production.

            however Long term the GMs might hurt their owners with that because owners were living quite well with overpaying veterans and saving Money on productive Young Players (the Overall Players share steadily went down the last 15 years), basically Union and owners had a collusion against the Young Players so that both could make Money.

            but if the GMs overdo that and cut more into the veterans earnings they might force the Union into a strike which could endanger the exploitation of Young Players. for the individual GM it is best practice to save the Money but for the collective of owners it would make sense for the Teams to not squeeze the veterans too hard so they continue to help exploiting the Young guys.
            We'll see how this gets handled.

            http://nypost.com/2017/11/07/why-caa...-otani-needed/

            Regardless, it seems someone other than Otani is going to make a lot of bank on his talent.

            In a way, if he lets himself get shortchanged, I will have more contempt for Otani than those shortchanging him.


            "The Fightin' Met With Two Heads" - Mike Tyson/Ray Knight!

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Mongoose View Post

              We'll see how this gets handled.

              http://nypost.com/2017/11/07/why-caa...-otani-needed/

              Regardless, it seems someone other than Otani is going to make a lot of bank on his talent.

              In a way, if he lets himself get shortchanged, I will have more contempt for Otani than those shortchanging him.

              well it could also mean that the challenge of playing the best is more important for him than Money. I'm pretty sure he is not dumb and knows what would be the best for him financially.
              I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by dominik View Post

                from a money perspective otani is stupid to come to the US. he actually now makes about 3 times as much in japan as he would in his first mlb year (1.5M). lets assume he gets that 5M maximum signing bonus he will have like 6M after his first 2 mlb years. by staying in japan those two years he would at least make 3M but probably like 4M since he likely would get a little raise (but not much). so even if he has a career ending injury he still isn't losing that much money. about 2M less guaranteed IMO doesn't make it worth punting the chance for a 200M contract- he isn't a poor domenican kid but a pro athlete making 1.5 M a year plus a lot of advertisement revenue.
                A million or two is a very small price to pay for getting to MLB as soon as he can. Other players, like Ichiro and Matsui, came at or past their prime, and so missed many good years. Otani has a chance to come when he's about the age a typical American-born player, if exceptional, starts at the MLB level. He will have a chance to adapt/develop in the MLB environment while he's still young, and add what should be some of his best seasons to his ultimate resume.

                As far as money goes, the main thing is that after two years, as I understand it, he can sign a big contract. Saying he's punting on the chance for a $200 million contract may be technically true, but it's a little misleading. When he turns 25, he can sign a contract that covers his remaining one year minimum salary plus three arb years plus as many FA years as he and a team can agree on. This is basically what Trout did, and got $144 million,for three arb years and three FA years--and he should have gotten more.

                When people claim he's throwing away a lot of money--which, from what I've read, he doesn't care about, anyway, and I say, more power to him--what they mean is that under the old system he could have signed a big contract. But the old system is gone, so that's a false comparison. The comparison now is between a pure FA contract, and one that includes one year at the minimum, and three years in arbitration. If he performs well his first two years, the overall contract will almost certainly average > $20 million a year. In fact, it's conceivable he will do better than if he waited till he was 25 to come over, because in the latter scenario he would still be a somewhat risky proposition (just see some posts upthread by others), whereas if he performs well for two years in the MLB, there will be no holding back the offers.
                Last edited by Stolensingle; 11-09-2017, 06:27 PM.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post

                  A million or two is a very small price to pay for getting to MLB as soon as he can. Other players, like Ichiro and Matsui, came at or past their prime, and so missed many good years. Otani has a chance to come when he's about the age a typical American-born player, if exceptional, starts at the MLB level. He will have a chance to adapt/develop in the MLB environment while he's still young, and add what should be some of his best seasons to his ultimate resume.

                  As far as money goes, the main thing is that after two years, as I understand it, he can sign a big contract. Saying he's punting on the chance for a $200 million contract may be technically true, but it's a little misleading. When he turns 25, he can sign a contract that covers his remaining one year minimum salary plus three arb years plus as many FA years as he and a team can agree on. This is basically what Trout did, and got $144 million,for three arb years and three FA years--and he should have gotten more.

                  When people claim he's throwing away a lot of money--which, from what I've read, he doesn't care about, anyway, and I say, more power to him--what they mean is that under the old system he could have signed a big contract. But the old system is gone, so that's a false comparison. The comparison now is between a pure FA contract, and one that includes one year at the minimum, and three years in arbitration. If he performs well his first two years, the overall contract will almost certainly average > $20 million a year. In fact, it's conceivable he will do better than if he waited till he was 25 to come over, because in the latter scenario he would still be a somewhat risky proposition (just see some posts upthread by others), whereas if he performs well for two years in the MLB, there will be no holding back the offers.
                  no he can't, he is under Team control for 6 years like all international signees and drafted amateurs (and maybe 7 if a Club was evil and started him at AAA). that means he is almost 30 when he is a FA which really hurts his value.

                  it is about becoming a FA at 25 vs becoming a FA at 30 when he is entering his decline Phase. now a Team could offer him an Extension but why would they if they have him for Peanuts until he is 30 anyway.

                  now there might be a Team cheating the System and offering him an Extension under the table before but but that is not how the System is supposed to work.

                  BTW I'm against a Player giving away free Money to the billionaire owners. the owners will make a lot of Money with him and should pay for him. Now the owners are not to blame for this, they want and should make Profit and the System is like it is, the Union was actually allowing this Agreement to be made (because they don't give a damn about amateurs and minor league Players) but I'd rather have him wait for two years than being underpaid in MLB for 6 years.

                  I get that amateurs have to face the same but otani isn't an Amateur, he is a pro Player making more Money in Japan now than about half the Players who played in MLB last year.

                  so why should he pay Money to Play in mlb?
                  Last edited by dominik; 11-10-2017, 05:18 AM.
                  I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by dominik View Post
                    a Team could offer him an Extension but why would they if they have him for Peanuts until he is 30 anyway.
                    Why did the Angels offer Trout an extension when they could have had him for peanuts until he was 26?

                    Because a) it really wasn't all peanuts; the Angels were facing one more year of Trout at the minimum, then three years of arb, when he would have made much more, though not as much as a FA; b) by making the deal, the Angels got three years of Trout in his prime when he would have been a FA and could have gone to another team. The deal was great for the Angels, because they're paying Trout for those FA years substantially less than he could have made on the open market. But Trout is getting long-term security, plus assuming he continues to remain productive, he can become a FA at age twenty-nine, and get a larger and more expensive contract.

                    If Otani signs now, in two years, when he's twenty-five, he will be in the same position Trout was at age twenty-two: one year left at the minimum, then three years of arb. His team can pay him the minimum that last year, then have him at arb rates for three more years. That's undeniably a great deal. They will have had him for six years at way below open market rates. But then they will lose him to FA, unless they outbid everyone else. At thirty, he should still have several good years left.

                    By offering him an extension similar to the one Trout had, a team can lock him up long-term. It makes sense for the team, because they still get him relatively cheap for the next four years, and probably also relatively cheap for his FA, because they won't have to compete with the offers of other teams. They trade a little more money for the next four years for less money over however far into his thirties they want to pay him. It makes sense for Otani, because like Trout, he trades long-term security for some money. He's assured of some FA pay, regardless of how he performs as he ages.

                    I'm not claiming he will come out as well from this financially as he would have if he stayed in Japan for two more years, then became a FA. But I don't necessarily think that he'll come out that badly, either. Also keep in mind that if he stays in Japan two more years, then signs as a FA, the amount he gets paid will have to take into account that no one knows for sure how good he will be here. There has to be some kind of discount, in time or money, just as you wouldn't pay even the most promising minor leaguer the kind of money offered a player who is a star in his first few years in MLB. In contrast, if Otani plays in MLB for two years, and performs well, his value going forward will be greater.

                    Edit: I just saw this article written about a year ago by Dave Cameron at FG. He says a team could offer Otani an extension as soon as he had pitched just one MLB game:

                    for how long must Otani and the MLB team that signed him stick with the standard pre-arb contract? At what point could the league no longer argue that a long-term extension was a pre-arranged deal designed to circumvent the rules? Because it is no longer unusual for players to sign long-term extensions very early in their careers.

                    Let’s say, for instance, that Otani’s major league debut went as well as you could possibly imagine; he throws some kind of complete-game shutout, strikes out 15 guys, and launches a home run or two as a batter just for good measure…

                    Would owners really go for the league telling them just how long Otani has to play in the big leagues before a long-term extension would no longer be considered a circumvention of the bonus pools, when that restriction wouldn’t apply to any other player? If the Astros can sign Jon Singleton to an extension before he’s ever played in an MLB game, how could the league forbid whoever signed Otani from giving him a new long-term deal after he’s shown what he can do against MLB talent?

                    The structure of the deal would have to follow other pre-arb extensions, with Otani continuing to be vastly underpaid for the first few years of his MLB service, with all the real money tacked on at the end of the deal in free agent years bought out. But I don’t know that it would be that hard to structure an offer in a way that gave Otani a large financial guarantee while also following in the footsteps of other pre-arb extensions.

                    For instance, let’s say a team estimates that Otani will make something like $50 million in his three arbitration years — assuming he’s an exceptional talent who creates value on both sides of the ball — so they spread that money out over the first six years of the contract, giving him salaries that go something like $1M, $4M, $8M, $10M, $12M, $15M. Then, the question becomes how much do you value his free agent years at? Given his talent level and the league’s economic situation, I don’t think it’s crazy to put a $50 million valuation on those years; the top free agents now are getting $35M per year, and that’s for older and worse players who only hit or pitch, plus there’s another six years of inflation to account for.

                    Of course, the team would have to be able to argue that they got enough of a savings to justify the commitment, so maybe you actually pay out those four years at $45 million apiece. That adds another $180 million in cost to the deal, bringing the total for 10 years to $230 million. Toss in the $8 million or so he gets in a signing bonus, and now, Otani’s been guaranteed something not too terribly different than what the expectation of he would get if he weren’t subject to the bonus pools.
                    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlbs...otani-problem/

                    Cameron doesn't say this, but what makes it all possible is there's a gap between what the best players are paid and what, according to WAR, they ought to be paid. By WAR, Trout is worth $60-70 million a year, but even if he were a FA now, no team would give him that much. Likewise, it's very unlikely that if Otani waited two more years, he could get a FA contract worth $50 million a year. But you can definitely argue that he might be worth it, and use that to create a contract where he gets roughly $25 million a year when the team control years are taken into account

                    BTW I'm against a Player giving away free Money to the billionaire owners. the owners will make a lot of Money with him and should pay for him. Now the owners are not to blame for this, they want and should make Profit and the System is like it is, the Union was actually allowing this Agreement to be made (because they don't give a damn about amateurs and minor league Players) but I'd rather have him wait for two years than being underpaid in MLB for 6 years.

                    I get that amateurs have to face the same but otani isn't an Amateur, he is a pro Player making more Money in Japan now than about half the Players who played in MLB last year.

                    so why should he pay Money to Play in mlb?
                    I agree with all this, except I want to see him over here as soon as possible.
                    Last edited by Stolensingle; 11-10-2017, 04:33 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      But otani is at the teams mercy for an extension. Sure the team can offer him extension but they don't have to, they just as well could keep him for 6 years.

                      btw I know that arb salaries are not totally peanuts (especially in the last year) but they are still below market value estimation is about 40/60/80% of market value for the three years but some think it is lower http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/...n-percentages/


                      also trout is a hitter and hitters are less risky for future value so it makes more sense for teams to extend him.

                      now it is unlikely that otani will get an extension but the player usually has to pay for that future security too (see goldschmidt or rizzo).
                      Last edited by dominik; 11-11-2017, 06:45 AM.
                      I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by dominik View Post
                        But otani is at the teams mercy for an extension. Sure the team can offer him extension but they don't have to, they just as well could keep him for 6 years.
                        This is where Cameron’s point makes a lot of sense, at least to me. The competition for Otani will be intense, but as far as money goes, the differences among what teams can offer are not that great. So teams will be looking to offer something else to attract him. The possibility of an extension could be that edge. They can’t give him an extension now—legally—but they can tell him that if he plays well from the start they will give him one. They don’t even have to be that specific, they can just say they have a policy of giving any rookie who performs to some standard an extension. They can’t be bound by what they say, of course, but they might find it worthwhile. Even if a team would prefer just to pay him for six years at below market rates, then take their chances in FA, they might not have that simple a choice. To get him ahead of some other team, they might need to suggest an extension, and they might think this well worth it.

                        But what I find most disappointing in all this is many people seem to regard Otani as a fool, giving up a nine figure contract just to come over two years sooner. He’s doing what we’re supposed to want great athletes to do—putting his career over money. I think that’s really admirable. He’s like a boxer who passes on a huge payday to fight a media darling who isn’t that much of a challenge, in favor of a very tough opponent who doesn’t draw that well. He knows that when his career is over, people will judge him not by how much money he made or didn’t make, but by how well he performed at the highest level of competition.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          How will Otani do in MLB?

                          While Clay Davenport’s deadly accurate statistical translations don’t appear to be available for 2017 NPB play, Davenport’s 2016 translations are available to the public.

                          For Ohtani, they’re quite good. Consider his 2016 (age-21) numbers translated to MLB performance as a pitcher: 137.1 innings, 107 hits, 46 earned runs, 45 walks, and 140 strikeouts (9.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/K). And as hitter: 324 at-bats, 14 home runs, 34 walks, 89 strikeouts and a .306/.367/.512 slash line.
                          https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wher...e-most-impact/

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            I think it will Play a big role what hitting role the Teams are promising to him. now he has no guarantee that they will actually honor that but I don't think Teams are interested in having an unmotivated and unhappy otani so they would Need to give him at least one season to prove himself at the plate before they say no you only pitch now.
                            I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by dominik View Post
                              I think it will Play a big role what hitting role the Teams are promising to him. now he has no guarantee that they will actually honor that but I don't think Teams are interested in having an unmotivated and unhappy otani so they would Need to give him at least one season to prove himself at the plate before they say no you only pitch now.
                              Yeah, I've been wondering how that will work. To get a fair assessment of how well he can hit, you need a fairly large sample size. If he went to a NL team, he might get 100 PA as a pitcher, which really isn't enough, but the team would probably be reluctant to play him in the field. If he goes to an AL team, he could get a lot of PA as a DH, but that will mean taking PA away from the team's current DH. In fact, if an AL team signs Otani, that may affect how seriously they pursue other players who could DH.

                              I think spring training will be crucial. A team can at least see enough of him there to decide whether they want to give him serious PA during the regular season.

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post

                                5.3 Kenji Johjima
                                That name always takes me back to when they said he'd be a great addition to the M's.
                                “There can be no higher law in journalism than to tell the truth and to shame the devil.” Walter Lippmann

                                "Fill in any figure you want for that boy [Mantle]. Whatever the figure, it's a deal." - Branch Rickey

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