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2017 ALDS: Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees

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  • #46
    Originally posted by PRW View Post
    The sabermetric inclined folks ought to know to go beyond the obvious in assessing this. The Yankees had a run differential of +198 and a Pythagorean record of 100-62. IMO you can't knee jerk say that this is an example of the randomness of postseason baseball OR that Cleveland was that much "better" than the Yankees if at all. This was a derriere kicking, not a freak occurrence, and I give the Yankees a definite shot against Houston.
    Right - the difference in run differential was even less than record. Which is why I said Cleveleand only had a 55-60% chance of winning - the HFA accounted for about 3% of that. I even called them a "slight statistical underdog." So I am sure you are not referring to me in the "sabermetric inclined folk" section of your post. Randomness doesn't necessarily mean the unlikely happens. Much of the randomenss in baseball is BECAUSE their isn't a massive talent spread among the teams to begin with. The worst teams win 40% of the time and the best teams lose 40% of the time. It is the relative parody in the inherent structure of the sport that causes most of the "randomness". And it takes 162 games even to reach THAT amount of relatively little separation. Even if they were not about the same in true talent - the Yankees would have a great chance of winning.

    Not sure why you are saying it was a "derriere kicking", though. A 3-run differential over 5 games is not much. It was too close teams with one team winning in the full length of the series

    And of course the Yankees have a shot to beat the Astros -as they would even if they were 10 games worse in talent and not just record.
    Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 10-12-2017, 06:47 AM.
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    • #47
      Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post

      Right - the difference in run differential was even less than record. Which is why I said Cleveleand only had a 55-60% chance of winning - the HFA accounted for about 3% of that. I even called them a "slight statistical underdog." So I am sure you are not referring to me in the "sabermetric inclined folk" section of your post. Randomness doesn't necessarily mean the unlikely happens. Much of the randomenss in baseball is BECAUSE their isn't a massive talent spread among the teams to begin with. The worst teams win 40% of the time and the best teams lose 40% of the time. It is the relative parody in the inherent structure of the sport that causes most of the "randomness". And it takes 162 games even to reach THAT amount of relatively little separation. Even if they were not about the same in true talent - the Yankees would have a great chance of winning.

      Not sure why you are saying it was a "derriere kicking", though. A 3-run differential over 5 games is not much. It was too close teams with one team winning in the full length of the series

      And of course the Yankees have a shot to beat the Astros -as they would even if they were 10 games worse in talent and not just record.

      Bothrops, if Girardi would've had his head out of his rectum with the HBP deal it might not have gone 5.

      I said it was a derriere kicking because there was just a crispness and sense of purpose to the Yankees that I didn't see in the Indians. I don't think the Indians lost it, I think the Yankees won it.

      I didn't see the Yankees 162 games so I don't have any input on this, but I think the question is why did the Yankees underachieve during the regular season? I saw on some Yankee forums folks blaming streaks of bullpen inconsistency by Chapman and the other reliever whose name escapes me.

      Comment


      • #48
        Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
        It is the relative parody in the inherent structure of the sport that causes most of the "randomness.
        There is definitely a lot of parody in baseball.

        Originally posted by PRW View Post

        if Girardi would've had his head out of his rectum with the HBP deal it might not have gone 5.
        If the usually potent Cleveland lineup had managed one freaking run in Game 4 the series might have ended there.

        I said it was a derriere kicking because there was just a crispness and sense of purpose to the Yankees that I didn't see in the Indians.
        Didn’t see that “crispness and sense of purpose” in Judge.

        I don't think the Indians lost it, I think the Yankees won it.
        The facts say that both happened.

        Kluber underperformed, badly. Most of Cleveland’s top hitters underperformed, badly. It happens in a short series.
        Last edited by Stolensingle; 10-12-2017, 08:01 AM.

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        • #49
          Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post


          Didn’t see that “crispness and sense of purpose” in Judge.

          I'm not a Yankee fan so I've not thought Judge was the second coming of the Bambino.

          Until he does it a couple more years and stops striking out so much, to me he's the second coming of Super Joe Charbeneau.

          Overall, though, I simply don't think there was this gaping chasm between New York and Cleveland as far as talent.

          Comment


          • #50
            I don't think most people who follow the game saw the Yankees as big underdogs in this series. Cleveland was better based on RS performance, but FG had been pointing out well before the season ended that NY was especially well designed to do well in short series. This is particularly because of its bullpen, which gets used more in the PS than was the case in the past. Everyone understood that if the Yankees had the lead late in the game they were almost certain to win, just as the Royals were a few years ago.

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            • #51
              Originally posted by redban View Post

              C'mon. The Yankees beat Kluber twice, and Bauer once. Cleveland gave the Yankees their best shot, and they got beat. The Yankees are the better team.
              If you read my post, I did not say one way or the other whether they were the better team. All I said was that they were the better team over the last 3 games. That speaks for 3 games, not the entire season.
              Also, the scoreboard shows they only beat Kluber once. Sabathia did outpitch Kluber both times. But the starting pitchers both got no decision in one game. Of course it was the Indians hitting and bullpen that won that game, not Kluber.
              Last edited by dwj21792; 10-12-2017, 09:24 AM.
              27 World Championships
              22 retired numbers
              Isn't it great to be a Yankee fan?

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              • #52
                Originally posted by PRW View Post


                Bothrops, if Girardi would've had his head out of his rectum with the HBP deal it might not have gone 5.

                I said it was a derriere kicking because there was just a crispness and sense of purpose to the Yankees that I didn't see in the Indians. I don't think the Indians lost it, I think the Yankees won it.

                I didn't see the Yankees 162 games so I don't have any input on this, but I think the question is why did the Yankees underachieve during the regular season? I saw on some Yankee forums folks blaming streaks of bullpen inconsistency by Chapman and the other reliever whose name escapes me.
                If you listen to the "experts" back in April, they overachieved this year, not underachieved. I'm still somewhat on cloud nine from the regular season because I really wasn't sure what to expect.
                I've been saying for a while now that I think this may be Girardi's best managerial job of his career.
                27 World Championships
                22 retired numbers
                Isn't it great to be a Yankee fan?

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                • #53
                  Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post

                  There is definitely a lot of parody in baseball.



                  .
                  Oh great - now you are THAT guy.
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                  • #54
                    Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post

                    Oh great - now you are THAT guy.
                    So is that better than being THAT Girl?


                    thatgirl01.jpg
                    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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                    • #55
                      Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post

                      So is that better than being THAT Girl?


                      thatgirl01.jpg
                      Marginally
                      1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                      1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

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                      The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
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                      • #56
                        I was at game 5 of the Indians/Yankees ALDS in 1997 and was hoping for the same result last night.

                        That said, I was also at game 5 of the Indians/Red Sox ALDS in 1999.

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          This postseason just got a lot less interesting.
                          Baseball Junk Drawer

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                          • #58
                            Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post

                            Oh great - now you are THAT guy.
                            I really don't know what you mean by that. I'll just say that I see typos, misspellings, wrong use of words, etc., on the internet all the time. The only time I point them out is when they are even more appropriate, in a humorous sort of way, than the original.

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Originally posted by dwj21792 View Post
                              If you listen to the "experts" back in April, they overachieved this year, not underachieved. I'm still somewhat on cloud nine from the regular season because I really wasn't sure what to expect.
                              I've been saying for a while now that I think this may be Girardi's best managerial job of his career.
                              And some pundits were calling for his head after the failure to review HBP thing. (I pointed it out, but I don't think he should be flogged for it.)

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post

                                I really don't know what you mean by that. I'll just say that I see typos, misspellings, wrong use of words, etc., on the internet all the time. The only time I point them out is when they are even more appropriate, in a humorous sort of way, than the original.
                                I was just joking. It was funny.
                                1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                                1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                                1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                                The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
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