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The newest rage: Juan Soto

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  • The newest rage: Juan Soto

    We know that rookies can come into the majors and put up extraordinary numbers for a while, until the pitchers figure them out. Yasiel Puig, in his first month or so (112 PA), had a slash of .443/.473/.745, and a wRC+ of 247. Gary Sanchez, in an amazing August (94 PA), had a slash of .425/.489/.938, and a wRC+ of 275. Puig has since settled down to a more or less average hitter. Sanchez may be more than that, but he’s struggled this season, and certainly isn’t the monster he was during his first month.

    So when you look at what Juan Soto has done in a little over a month (143 PA)--.325/.434/.600, wRC+ of 176—you may think it doesn’t mean much. But there is one big difference between Soto and most other red hot rookies: he’s a teen-ager. If he were to maintain anything close to this pace for the rest of the season, it would go down in history as the best season ever by a 19 year old. What was child prodigy Mike Trout doing at that age? .220/.281/.390, wRC+ 87 in 135 PA. Machado? .262/.294/.445, wRC+ 97 in 202 PA. Harper? In a nearly full season of 597 PA, he managed .270/.340/.477, wRC+ 121.

    How about some teen-age marvels of the past?

    Mel Ott: .322/.397/.524, wRC+ 140 (499 PA)
    Tony Conigliaro: .290/.354/.530, wRC 138 (444 PA)
    Ty Cobb: .316/.355/.394, wRC+ 130 (394 PA)
    Jimmie Foxx: .323/.393/.515, wRC+ 129 (146 PA)
    Mickey Mantle: .267/.349/.443, wRC+ 116 (386 PA)
    Cesar Cedeno: .310/.340/.451, wRC+ 111 (377 PA)
    Ken Griffey, Jr: .264/.329/.420, wRC+ 106 (506 PA)

    Soto figures to regress, but how much? To add to the intrigue, he has an outside chance of qualifying for rate stat titles. He currently has just 143 PA, because he was called up in May (famously homering in a game that was played before he was called up), while the Nats have 81 games left to play. If Soto played every one of those games, and averaged a plausible 4.43 PA/game, he could just make it. Even if he doesn’t, he seems on track for one of the best, if not the best, 19 year old seasons ever.

  • #2
    Fangraphs scouting report has him at 55 hit and 55 power which is 270 with 20 homers. Those projections are half a year old (before 2018) and maybe they now would be bumped to 280 and 25 homers but still those are probably more realistic than expecting him to hit 330.
    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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    • #3
      FG has the following projections for Soto. To put this in perspective, I've added Trout's projections:
      Code:
       
      OPS WAR
      Soto 2019 .959 5.1
      Trout 2019 1.023 8.6
      Soto 2020 1.042 6.7
      Trout 2020 1.020 8.1
      Soto 2021 1.081 7.5
      Trout 2021 1.009 7.7
      So they’re actually projecting that Soto will be the best hitter in baseball by next year, his age 21 season. By the end of 2021, his age 22 season, he’s projected to have about 23 WAR. That would be fifth all-time at that age, behind Trout, Cobb, Ott, and Williams. The projections also have him hitting 150 HR by then, which would be far and away the most by any player through age 22.
      Last edited by Stolensingle; 04-07-2019, 08:14 PM.

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      • #4
        Where did you find those projections?
        I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by dominik View Post
          Where did you find those projections?
          On their ZiPS page. They now project up to 2021.

          https://www.fangraphs.com/projection...=bat&type=zips

          Comment


          • #6
            I think they are overprojecting him. The profile is sexy but I don't see that kind of growth in him. He is a bit of a groundball hitter and could add some power with a slight swing change but who knows what that would do to his contact rate and babip.


            steamer is much lower on him.
            I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

            Comment


            • #7
              I mentioned this in the 2019 season thread, but it's worth repeating here. Soto hit his 32nd HR of the season, tying him for fourth with Tony Conligiaro for most HR in the age 20 season. He just passed Williams at 31, and Trout at 30. The record is 42 by Mel Ott. It's also the 54th of his young career. He has a shot at the record for most HR through age 20, 61 by Ott. Second all-time is 56 by Conigliaro. Soto's 146 career wRC+ is the third highest to Wiiliams and Trout through that age. He's tied with Mantle for seventh with 8.1 fWAR (minimum 600 PA), and by the end of the season could move up to fourth, behind Trout, Cobb and Ott.

              His current 147 wRC+ this season is fourth in the NL, trailing only Bellinger, Yelich, and Soto's teammate, Rendon.
              Last edited by Stolensingle; 09-03-2019, 09:06 PM.

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              • #8
                Leading MLB with a 215 wRC+: .358/.447/.765, third in BA and OBP, first in SLG. He was already projected to pass Trout as the game's best hitter this year or next. He missed a bunch of games in the beginning of the season with COVID, if not for that, he'd be in triple crown contention. He's in the top three in HR and RBI per game.
                Last edited by Stolensingle; 09-01-2020, 02:32 AM.

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                • #9
                  110 walks, 110 runs, and 110 RBI per 162 games:

                  Babe Ruth
                  Lou Gehrig
                  Ted Williams
                  Juan Soto
                  My top 10 players:

                  1. Babe Ruth
                  2. Barry Bonds
                  3. Ty Cobb
                  4. Ted Williams
                  5. Willie Mays
                  6. Alex Rodriguez
                  7. Hank Aaron
                  8. Honus Wagner
                  9. Lou Gehrig
                  10. Mickey Mantle

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Interestingly soto does that not by the modern approach of trying to hit the ball high to the pull side.

                    his launch angle this year is just 6 degrees (lg average around 11-12) and his pull percentage is a very low 32% (lg average is around 40). The theory says this approach will lead to high babip but low power but soto has enough raw pop and contact quality to hit lots of bombs anyway.

                    Still leaves room to adjust for him, he probably make a little little tweak and instead of hitting 300 with 35 homers he could hit 280 with 50 bombs if he decides to hit the ball higher and a bit more to pull side. But right now he doesn't need that adjustment.
                    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Youngest player in history to win a NL batting title. Also won the triple slash crown, led the majors in OBP, SLG and wRC+. Definitely a triple crown candidate in the future.
                      Last edited by Stolensingle; 10-03-2020, 04:13 PM.

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                      • #12
                        It seems Soto has a chance to be an all time great in left field? His numbers at age 19-21 are pretty crazy.
                        Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                          It seems Soto has a chance to be an all time great in left field? His numbers at age 19-21 are pretty crazy.
                          Just as good a chance as Kal Daniels had in his first 3 seasons.

                          Honestly though, too soon for me to be thinking about that. He's only got one truly full season under his belt.
                          Last edited by dgarza; 11-21-2020, 02:24 PM.

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                          • #14

                            FG has projected him to be a better hitter than Trout as soon as next year. He was actually better this year, though of course it was a relatively small sample size.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post
                              FG has projected him to be a better hitter than Trout as soon as next year. He was actually better this year, though of course it was a relatively small sample size.
                              Who says that? Steamer and depth charts projections have soto at a 156 wrc+ and trout 161.

                              https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ju...ts?position=OF

                              https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mi...ts?position=OF
                              I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

                              Comment

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