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  • #46
    Originally posted by dominik View Post

    That is a math equation too. Off Field issues increase the bust Potential and if they have the same price you prefer the better makeup guy. However when other teams do that too the discount on "damaged goods" might be so good that you can risk it for the upside. Reportedly the rays for example target make up issue guys when the discount is good enough.

    sabermetrics guys are not heartless robots, they of course prefer good people but they have to make a math equation whether the cost or benefit of getting a questionable guy is higher. Luhnow certainly would have preferred a closer with no issues over osuna but he felt the price was too good to pass up because a closer of this quality and age would have required a top20 overall prospect (probably alvarez or tucker) and more while osuna was much cheaper.
    That's true. I know the Rays had Josh Lueke for a while, although he didn't really pan out.
    Baseball Junk Drawer

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    • #47
      Originally posted by ian2813 View Post

      That's true. I know the Rays had Josh Lueke for a while, although he didn't really pan out.
      Also had matt bush for some time and josh hamilton. There is a risk of course
      I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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      • #48
        Originally posted by ian2813 View Post

        That's true. I know the Rays had Josh Lueke for a while, although he didn't really pan out.
        Going back to Moneyball, there is the story that supposedly, for racist reasons, the Mets did not draft Reggie Jackson because he was dating a white woman at the time*. And IIRC the Moneyball movie described a “ludicrous” “I’ve got a feeling this guy isn’t a good pick” scout reasoning for an unattached player as being “a commitment-phobe.”

        Obviously DV and substance abuse are far more serious than relationship issues, but that line of thinking being cited with frivolous (especially racially or gender charged) reasoning being used as reasons why “gut” decision making is dangerous to future success is probably more prevalent in the “new age” scouting community.

        *This came to light long after particulars were long gone as Jackson was told by his college coach that his relationship was the reason he was picked 2nd. Met officials have said that Steve Chilcott was highly touted (career ended in the minors) and it was neck and neck between the two.
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        Mets360 Mets Past, Present and Future
        Talking Mets Baseball. A baseball blog with a Mets bias

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        • #49
          Looks like the 2018 Red Sox are caught in the same ****storm.

          Along with 1951, how does it seem the Dodgers wind up being the victims in the majority of these sign-stealing controversies!
          Last edited by milladrive; 01-07-2020, 11:27 AM.
          NY Sports Day Independent Gotham Sports Coverage
          Mets360 Mets Past, Present and Future
          Talking Mets Baseball. A baseball blog with a Mets bias

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          • #50
            Originally posted by dominik View Post

            Also had matt bush for some time and josh hamilton. There is a risk of course
            I think you mean the Rangers had those two players, not the Rays.

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            • #51
              Originally posted by SteveJRogers View Post
              Looks like the 2018 Red Sox are caught in the same ****storm.

              Along with 1951, how does it seem the Dodgers wind up being the victims in the majority of these sign-stealing controversies!
              Is there going to be a "Super Sox fall from grace" thread?
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              • #52
                Word is that punishments will be announced soon, and won't include any players, but will be directed against coaches and management. The fact that Alex Cora was with both teams during the sign stealing certainly suggests he's likely to get disciplined.

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                • #53
                  It's weird how 2017-19 compares to 1917-19.

                  The Red Sox won the World Series in both 1918 and 2018, and led the century in World Series championships at that point both times.

                  The White Sox won the World Series in 1917 and lost in 1919. The Astros won the World Series in 2017 and lost in 2019.

                  After 1919, the Black Sox scandal came to light, which cast doubt on the legitimacy of a World Series result. After 2019, the sign-stealing scandal came to light, which cast doubt on the legitimacy of a World Series result.

                  Coincidence? Yeah, probably. But just for fun...

                  It looks like the Red Sox won't win it again until 2104, and the Astros not again until 2105. And Rob Manfred may become more of a strongman commissioner just to clean up this mess.
                  Baseball Junk Drawer

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                  • #54
                    Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post

                    I think you mean the Rangers had those two players, not the Rays.
                    The Rays organization did have both those players at some point. However, Hamilton was drafted by them with the first overall pick, so I don't think he'd count as an example of a player whose price dropped due to off-field issues.
                    Baseball Junk Drawer

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                    • #55
                      Originally posted by ian2813 View Post
                      It's weird how 2017-19 compares to 1917-19.

                      The Red Sox won the World Series in both 1918 and 2018, and led the century in World Series championships at that point both times.

                      The White Sox won the World Series in 1917 and lost in 1919. The Astros won the World Series in 2017 and lost in 2019.

                      After 1919, the Black Sox scandal came to light, which cast doubt on the legitimacy of a World Series result. After 2019, the sign-stealing scandal came to light, which cast doubt on the legitimacy of a World Series result.

                      Coincidence? Yeah, probably. But just for fun...

                      It looks like the Red Sox won't win it again until 2104, and the Astros not again until 2105. And Rob Manfred may become more of a strongman commissioner just to clean up this mess.
                      Too funny! But if the early 21st century is mimicking the early 20th century, where's the Cubs second WS championship?

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                      • #56
                        This probably makes a lifetime ban for cora more likely, especially if it can be proven that he brought that method over from his time with the Astros.
                        I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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                        • #57
                          Originally posted by 3rdGenCub View Post

                          Too funny! But if the early 21st century is mimicking the early 20th century, where's the Cubs second WS championship?
                          Good question. But really, I'd rather have more than two titles per century, and not so widely spaced out.
                          Baseball Junk Drawer

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                          • #58
                            I now wonder if Betts's year for the ages in 2018 was helped in any way by sign stealing. We do know that he hasn't approached this level of performance before or since, though such outliers do occur in players's careers.

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                            • #59
                              Originally posted by dominik View Post
                              This probably makes a lifetime ban for cora more likely, especially if it can be proven that he brought that method over from his time with the Astros.
                              Is this really an option? That seems pretty excessive.
                              "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

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                              • #60
                                Not sure but they lifetime banned that braves gm for tinkering with signing bonuses and there were already rumours mlb wants to make an example out of this to discourage other teams doing that and if cora was a key part of two teams doing that he would be a perfect scapegoat.

                                this could maybe also rescue the Astros somewhat and limit their punishment in terms of draft picks lost and front office personnel suspensions.
                                I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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