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2020-2021 Offseason Thread

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  • 2020-2021 Offseason Thread

    Hopefully, this offseason won't end in July.
    Put it in the books.

  • #2
    The biggest development, long term, other than maybe rule changes becoming permanent, is the sale of the Mets to Steven A. Cohen.

    The Mets have been a hidden titan for the past 34 years. Perhaps you've noticed: there's a pretty large percentage of Mets fans here. They probably have the largest fan base in the sport. They should be the richest franchise, but the previous owner was a grifter who bled the team dry. He literally funneled 90% of local TV revenue into a separate company. The $2B price SAC offered for the regional sports network SNY, and its remaining 10 year contract suggests true profits of around $280M a year. This was revenue the Mets were generating, but the Mets never saw.

    That TV contract stands, so hardly any local TV revenue for the next decade, but in the meantime SAC has a $14B personal fortune to pick up the slack. Most intriguingly, he largely created that fortune from building analytics teams. Within around 5 years, for the first time in a lifetime, I'd expect the Mets to field a Yankees/Dodgers type powerhouse.

    It's been a while.


    "The Fightin' Met With Two Heads" - Mike Tyson/Ray Knight!

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Mongoose View Post
      Perhaps you've noticed: there's a pretty large percentage of Mets fans here. They probably have the largest fan base in the sport.
      You can't seriously believe this. The Mets don't even have the largest fanbase in their own city. I'm sure you hate the Yankees, as do I, but they have more fans around the country and around the world than the Mets do. It's just a fact.
      Baseball Junk Drawer

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      • #4
        Originally posted by ian2813 View Post

        You can't seriously believe this. The Mets don't even have the largest fanbase in their own city. I'm sure you hate the Yankees, as do I, but they have more fans around the country and around the world than the Mets do. It's just a fact.
        The New York Yankees win the hearts of 49 percent of New York City baseball fans, while 33 percent of fans cheer for the New York Mets, according to the Quinnipiac University New York City Baseball Poll released today. The Red Sox are in third place, with 3 percent.

        https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-city/re...ReleaseID=2614
        The Mets have the best, smartest fans in baseball.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by ian2813 View Post

          You can't seriously believe this. The Mets don't even have the largest fanbase in their own city. I'm sure you hate the Yankees, as do I, but they have more fans around the country and around the world than the Mets do. It's just a fact.
          The Mets have by far the most generational fans. The Giants and Dodgers fan bases were much larger combined than the Yankees. We're talking about actual fans with authentic allegiances, not random people answering a poll. In my personal experience I've known more Mets fans, which, considering the Yankees' greatness and the Mets' dismalness the past 34 years, is remarkable. Look at any baseball forum. Mets fans tend to outnumber Yankees fans. Considering the history and quality of each organization, that shouldn't be the case, but it is.

          The question is, how much long term damage did Fred Wilpon do to the Mets. I can't say, but anyone who thinks the Yankees have a bigger fan base than the Mets isn't from here. A lot of Mets fans have become alienated and angry, but they haven't become Yankees fans.


          "The Fightin' Met With Two Heads" - Mike Tyson/Ray Knight!

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Mongoose View Post

            The Mets have by far the most generational fans. The Giants and Dodgers fan bases were much larger combined than the Yankees. We're talking about actual fans with authentic allegiances, not random people answering a poll. In my personal experience I've known more Mets fans, which, considering the Yankees' greatness and the Mets' dismalness the past 34 years, is remarkable. Look at any baseball forum. Mets fans tend to outnumber Yankees fans. Considering the history and quality of each organization, that shouldn't be the case, but it is.
            That's just a subjective judgment based on anecdotal evidence. It's also playing around with semantics. "Well, sure, more people root for the Yankees than the Mets, but the Mets have more real fans!" At that point, you're just moving the goalposts to something that's more difficult to quantify.

            The question is, how much long term damage did Fred Wilpon do to the Mets. I can't say, but anyone who thinks the Yankees have a bigger fan base than the Mets isn't from here. A lot of Mets fans have become alienated and angry, but they haven't become Yankees fans.
            We should probably avoid getting on a tangent about which team is more popular in New York, since the real thing I was taking issue with is your statement that the Mets probably have the biggest fanbase in baseball. According to this data, the Yankees have by far the most followers on Facebook of any MLB team (as of this August). They have 3 million more followers than the second-place Red Sox. Where do the Mets rank? 13th. Granted, this is just one measurement, but if the Mets truly had baseball's biggest fanbase, it would probably be reflected in this type of data.

            Seriously, Mongoose. It's OK if you root for a team whose following is mostly regional. The legitimacy of your desire to see them win doesn't depend on how big their fanbase is.
            Baseball Junk Drawer

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            • #7
              Originally posted by ian2813 View Post
              Seriously, Mongoose. It's OK if you root for a team whose following is mostly regional. The legitimacy of your desire to see them win doesn't depend on how big their fanbase is.
              Well, if you feel that way, why argue with me about this? Why not humor the poor Mets fan, and let him harbor his delusions? But since you're challenging my point, I might as well go one more round...

              If you've read my posts in the past, you'll note I'm not a blind homer. I've hammered the Mets organization more than anyone on this site over the past 10+ years. But what's true is true. The Mets simply have a bigger endemic fan base than the Yankees. The combined fans of two immensely popular franchises - in by far the biggest market in the sport - were funneled into the Mets. Hardly any Dodgers/Giants fans became Yankees fans after 1957.

              In 1964, when the Yankees won their last "Dynasty" era pennant, and the Mets were a historically bad team, the Mets outdrew the Yankees. Anytime both teams are comparably good at the same time, the Mets draw better. I suspect the generational fan base is still there. I meet more hard core Mets fans than Yankees fans. Which, I guess, was my point.

              But how do you define "fan". How many Heat "fans" became Warriors "fans" a few years later? But if you want to judge by casual front-runners, the Mets remain in the biggest market, with just about the largest number of cable subscribers, and the highest potential revenue. The franchise is now in a position to live up to its potential. When that happens, I'm sure the Facebook fans and front-runners will follow.


              "The Fightin' Met With Two Heads" - Mike Tyson/Ray Knight!

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Mongoose View Post

                Well, if you feel that way, why argue with me about this? Why not humor the poor Mets fan, and let him harbor his delusions? But since you're challenging my point, I might as well go one more round...
                Outrageous claims bother me. If you simply stated an opinion that the Mets deserved more success, I wouldn't care. When you try to justify it by saying they have the biggest fanbase in baseball, a proposition not supported by any evidence, I feel compelled to say something.

                If you've read my posts in the past, you'll note I'm not a blind homer. I've hammered the Mets organization more than anyone on this site over the past 10+ years. But what's true is true. The Mets simply have a bigger endemic fan base than the Yankees. The combined fans of two immensely popular franchises - in by far the biggest market in the sport - were funneled into the Mets. Hardly any Dodgers/Giants fans became Yankees fans after 1957.
                I don't really care to argue which team is more popular in New York, since I'm not a New Yorker or a fan of either team. The point I'm contending is whether the Mets have the largest fanbase in baseball. You seem to think the world outside of New York doesn't count, since you want to make it about Yankees vs. Mets. Visit the rest of the U.S. and you'll find a lot more Yankee fans than Met fans. That was my point when I brought up the Yankees. And lest you forget, there are 28 other teams, some of which have pretty sizable fanbases themselves.

                In 1964, when the Yankees won their last "Dynasty" era pennant, and the Mets were a historically bad team, the Mets outdrew the Yankees. Anytime both teams are comparably good at the same time, the Mets draw better. I suspect the generational fan base is still there. I meet more hard core Mets fans than Yankees fans. Which, I guess, was my point.
                1964 was also the year Shea Stadium opened. A new ballpark tends to cause a spike in attendance. The Yankees outdrew the Mets in 1962 and 1963. Again, I'm not particularly interested in the issue of which team is more popular in New York, but arguments with huge holes in them bug me so much that it's hard to resist correcting them.

                But how do you define "fan". How many Heat "fans" became Warriors "fans" a few years later? But if you want to judge by casual front-runners, the Mets remain in the biggest market, with just about the largest number of cable subscribers, and the highest potential revenue. The franchise is now in a position to live up to its potential. When that happens, I'm sure the Facebook fans and front-runners will follow.
                I would define a "fan" as someone who possesses a degree of loyalty to a team. Whether they're hardcore fans or just casual fans is irrelevant. They can switch their loyalties later if they wish, but if they currently identify with one particular franchise and pull for them to win, then that's a fan in my book. Is a frontrunning fan as special as one whose fandom goes back generations? No, but he's a fan nonetheless. I'm sure the Mets will gain more fans if the new ownership builds them into a powerhouse, and it's not inconceivable that they could become a contender for baseball's most popular team if the Yankees are significantly mismanaged for a decade or two. But until that happens, it's best to make assessments based on the way things are, not the way they could potentially be.
                Baseball Junk Drawer

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                • #9
                  Ian, I agree with you. There is no shame in being a fan of a team with fewer fans....I'm a White Sox fan and fully acknowledge the Cubs have more fans in Chicago and around the country.

                  I suspect the Yankees have more fans in New York and the NY state region, but if memorabilia is any way to judge fandom, I literally see 10 times more Yankees gear around the Chicago area and when I'm out the Chicago region than I do Mets gear. It might be 20 times more, but I will be conservative. I do NOT see much Mets gear around. It isn't even in top 10. By far the most I see around (excluding the Chicago teams) is Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants and possibly the Tigers (but I suspect that is due to the cool D). I rarely see any Mets gear. Heck, when I do my HOF trip at induction time (3 times in 6 years), I see three or four times more Yankees gear than Mets (in years when neither has an inductee).
                  "Cut off my wrists, and 'Park Chan-Ho, 20 wins!'"
                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPqaa9w-_Zs


                  Play the Who am I? game in trivia and you can make this signature line yours for 3 days (baseball signatures only!)

                  Go here for a link to all player links! http://www.baseball-fever.com/forum/...player-threads

                  Go here for all your 1920's/1930's OF info

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                  • #10
                    I'm always more curious about the long-term impacts of off-season decisions. The front office hires are generally of more lasting significance than the free agent signings.

                    Who replaces Eppler running the Angels and will that hire signal a genuine rebuild (at long last)? Or will whomever it be get marching orders for more of the same from Arte Moreno? Throwing more good money after bad?

                    Does Eppler get the nod in Miami and how much better/worse will whomever their new boss be in the "collaborative" process that Jeter heads in that front office? While Mike Hill appears to have been unimpressive during his long Marlins career, how much of that were the dictates of ownership (first under Loria, then under Jeter) and how much was that Hill simply not up to the task? Where will Hill wind up?

                    With A.J. Hinch getting hired in Detroit, does Jeff Luhnow stand a chance at a second shot running a team this season? (Next season maybe?)

                    Who does Cohen and Sandy Alderson pick to be "the man" for the Mets going forward? Former Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta was an Alderson understudy in New York some years ago before the NFL lured him over.

                    Are the Red Sox going to welcome Alex Cora back with open arms?

                    Do the Astros enter a rebuilding mode given their free agent defections this winter and next?

                    These questions and more need answering!
                    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

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                    • #11
                      Incidentally, don't expect the usual crowding of trades and free agent signings during the first week of December now that the Winter Meetings have been cancelled as an in-person event. Zoom meetings aren't going to produce the same personalized contact so negotiations will almost certainly be more spread out with somewhat less urgency than under normal circumstances.
                      "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                      "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                      "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                      "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Toledo Inquisition View Post
                        Ian, I agree with you. There is no shame in being a fan of a team with fewer fans....I'm a White Sox fan and fully acknowledge the Cubs have more fans in Chicago and around the country.

                        I suspect the Yankees have more fans in New York and the NY state region, but if memorabilia is any way to judge fandom, I literally see 10 times more Yankees gear around the Chicago area and when I'm out the Chicago region than I do Mets gear. It might be 20 times more, but I will be conservative. I do NOT see much Mets gear around. It isn't even in top 10. By far the most I see around (excluding the Chicago teams) is Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants and possibly the Tigers (but I suspect that is due to the cool D). I rarely see any Mets gear. Heck, when I do my HOF trip at induction time (3 times in 6 years), I see three or four times more Yankees gear than Mets (in years when neither has an inductee).
                        None of this surprises me at all. I actually live in an area with a somewhat higher concentration of Met fans than average (Virginia, largely due to the Tides' former affiliation), but even I don't see an overwhelming amount of Mets gear around here. Yankees and Red Sox stuff is pretty common, though.
                        Baseball Junk Drawer

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Toledo Inquisition View Post
                          Ian, I agree with you. There is no shame in being a fan of a team with fewer fans....I'm a White Sox fan and fully acknowledge the Cubs have more fans in Chicago and around the country.

                          I suspect the Yankees have more fans in New York and the NY state region, but if memorabilia is any way to judge fandom, I literally see 10 times more Yankees gear around the Chicago area and when I'm out the Chicago region than I do Mets gear. It might be 20 times more, but I will be conservative. I do NOT see much Mets gear around. It isn't even in top 10. By far the most I see around (excluding the Chicago teams) is Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants and possibly the Tigers (but I suspect that is due to the cool D). I rarely see any Mets gear. Heck, when I do my HOF trip at induction time (3 times in 6 years), I see three or four times more Yankees gear than Mets (in years when neither has an inductee).
                          I wouldn't argue any of that. I go to foreign countries and see people with Yankees gear. It wasn't what I was talking about. If I haven't already, I will clarify. There are more people in the New York area with a family connection to the Mets, and they're dispersed all over the country. The past 34 years repelled many people from the franchise. But I suspect, with an ownership committed to winning, many will rediscover their fandom.

                          Everyone abandoned the Mets for a while after the Midnight Massacre in 1977. By 1986, there were large contingents of Mets fans in every visiting stadium. There are lots of people with Mets roots. It's just that they've been so mismanaged and downtrodden the past 34 years, nobody remembers what a committed fan base they had. I predict good times again for the franchise. People will rediscover their affinity for the team. I think it will begin with this off-season. I might be wrong, but let's revisit in a few years. Hopefully, by then, the sleeping giant will have reawakened.


                          "The Fightin' Met With Two Heads" - Mike Tyson/Ray Knight!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Mongoose View Post

                            I wouldn't argue any of that. I go to foreign countries and see people with Yankees gear. It wasn't what I was talking about. If I haven't already, I will clarify. There are more people in the New York area with a family connection to the Mets, and they're dispersed all over the country. The past 34 years repelled many people from the franchise. But I suspect, with an ownership committed to winning, many will rediscover their fandom.

                            Everyone abandoned the Mets for a while after the Midnight Massacre in 1977. By 1986, there were large contingents of Mets fans in every visiting stadium. There are lots of people with Mets roots. It's just that they've been so mismanaged and downtrodden the past 34 years, nobody remembers what a committed fan base they had. I predict good times again for the franchise. People will rediscover their affinity for the team. I think it will begin with this off-season. I might be wrong, but let's revisit in a few years. Hopefully, by then, the sleeping giant will have reawakened.
                            Do you think all these displaced fans loyal enough to return? Generally I finds fans lost to another team don't come back...unless they are playing for the championship.
                            "Cut off my wrists, and 'Park Chan-Ho, 20 wins!'"
                            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPqaa9w-_Zs


                            Play the Who am I? game in trivia and you can make this signature line yours for 3 days (baseball signatures only!)

                            Go here for a link to all player links! http://www.baseball-fever.com/forum/...player-threads

                            Go here for all your 1920's/1930's OF info

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Blue387 View Post

                              The New York Yankees win the hearts of 49 percent of New York City baseball fans, while 33 percent of fans cheer for the New York Mets, according to the Quinnipiac University New York City Baseball Poll released today. The Red Sox are in third place, with 3 percent.

                              https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-city/re...ReleaseID=2614
                              In Central New York State where I live, judging by the hats, jerseys and t-shirts I see around town, it's probably 10/1 Yankees over Mets. Red Sox is next to nothing, we don't even get NESN on the Spectrum Cable, although we're equidistant to Boston and NYC.
                              Last edited by ol' aches and pains; 11-02-2020, 05:47 AM.
                              They call me Mr. Baseball. Not because of my love for the game; because of all the stitches in my head.

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