Trevor Bauer signs with LA Dodgers

[dgarza]

A three-year, $102 million deal. $40 million in 2021, $45 million in 2022, opt-out after each of the first two seasons.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...rs-sources-say

[dominik]

The 40,45,17 is interesting. Bauer did say before he preferred a shorter contract.

The 17 with the opt out is an interesting cushion for him that he will probably only use if he really underperforms or is hurt.

I don't see him opting out from the 45m in year two but most likely he will opt out after year two so it is really more of a two year deal with a player option for the dodgers.

[Chadwick]

Initially, I was shocked by the opt-outs in conjunction with the front-loading of the money, but after doing some calculations, this appears to be a win-win for the Dodgers whether Bauer stays or goes.

MLB Trade Rumors projected that the Dodgers re-sign Justin Turner for two years at $12 mil per. That would mean just under $6 million in Competitive Balance Tax paid in 2021. That's peanuts for a franchise between 2-8 times that amount every year under this ownership until they got back until the threshold in 2018 and 2019.

And while 2022 presents the free agency of Corey Seager and a $5 million raise to Bauer (if he stays), it's also another year for LA to make a move with David Price (and his $32m/yr albatross). I don't see Bauer's signing slowing the Dodger machine down financially one iota. Their risk is relatively minimal here and the potential payoff (additional World Series appearances) is massive.

Few teams in MLB are going to make financial decisions that aren't thoroughly planned and prudently calculated. The Los Angeles Dodgers are certainly not among those who would.

Good for the Dodgers. Still the team to beat in 2021!

[Bothrops Atrox]

Initially, I was shocked by the opt-outs in conjunction with the front-loading of the money, but after doing some calculations, this appears to be a win-win for the Dodgers whether Bauer stays or goes.

MLB Trade Rumors projected that the Dodgers re-sign Justin Turner for two years at $12 mil per. That would mean just under $6 million in Competitive Balance Tax paid in 2021. That's peanuts for a franchise between 2-8 times that amount every year under this ownership until they got back until the threshold in 2018 and 2019.

And while 2022 presents the free agency of Corey Seager and a $5 million raise to Bauer (if he stays), it's also another year for LA to make a move with David Price (and his $32m/yr albatross). I don't see Bauer's signing slowing the Dodger machine down financially one iota. Their risk is relatively minimal here and the potential payoff (additional World Series appearances) is massive.

Few teams in MLB are going to make financial decisions that aren't thoroughly planned and prudently calculated. The Los Angeles Dodgers are certainly not among those who would.

Good for the Dodgers. Still the team to beat in 2021!

Interestingly -Bauer doesn't project much better than the in-house options they already had. Bauer is a 3 win pitcher with other 2.5-win guys available at $40 million less. Not that it will mess the organization up since it is such a short contact, the optouts and the disregard of the luxury tax. All the things you mentioned.

[Chadwick]

I would not have paid Bauer anything close to that - I don't project him to repeat his 2018 season in the future - but evidently the Dodgers' internal projections are rosier than mine. They must believe that his 2018 and 2020 level represents something akin to what he'll do in 2021 than the league-average pitcher he was before 2018. He's receptive to data-driven tweaks and the Dodgers are certainly going to help him with that. They obviously believe they can help him sustain his recent level of success, or something close to it.

But the salary is primarily the result of talent scarcity. The Dodgers aren't willing to trade top prospects (often) and Bauer was, as they saw it, the best bet on the free agent market.

They no doubt also have inside information about David Price's intentions for 2021 (as he could potentially sit out due to COVID again) and/or know their intentions regarding his contract. Add to the mix the moves by San Diego and (to a lesser extent) Atlanta and St. Louis.

Make no mistake about it: Los Angeles wants to win consecutive championships and they don't mind paying tens of millions in competitive balance tax to give them their best chance at doing so.

[Bothrops Atrox]

I would not have paid Bauer anything close to that - I don't project him to repeat his 2018 season in the future - but evidently the Dodgers' internal projections are rosier than mine. They must believe that his 2018 and 2020 level represents something akin to what he'll do in 2021 than the league-average pitcher he was before 2018. He's receptive to data-driven tweaks and the Dodgers are certainly going to help him with that. They obviously believe they can help him sustain his recent level of success, or something close to it.

But the salary is primarily the result of talent scarcity. The Dodgers aren't willing to trade top prospects (often) and Bauer was, as they saw it, the best bet on the free agent market.

They no doubt also have inside information about David Price's intentions for 2021 (as he could potentially sit out due to COVID again) and/or know their intentions regarding his contract. Add to the mix the moves by San Diego and (to a lesser extent) Atlanta and St. Louis.

Make no mistake about it: Los Angeles wants to win consecutive championships and they don't mind paying tens of millions in competitive balance tax to give them their best chance at doing so.

Agree with everything.

When you really think about it - a very smart team that is already the best in baseball is willing to pay 40 million to increase their odds of winning a title maybe 15% to 17%.

But if you got it and don't care...good for them.

[dominik]

Bauer placed on administrative leave due to assault allegations. Apparently he had a consentual sexual encounter with a woman and injured her pretty badly. Won't go into details here but the athletic article reads Pretty badly. Bauer claims that the woman asked for "rough sex" and to be choked but she says Bauer went way beyond anything they agreed and hurt her badly.

[Los Bravos]

Between this junk and the serious questions about how effective he really is without artificial enhancement, there are a number of teams breathing a sigh of relief that they didn't get left holding the proverbial bag on this guy.

[GiambiJuice]

It sounds like the woman literally asked for it, but if true this is sick, depraved behavior from Bauer nonetheless. I could never bring myself to abuse a woman no matter how badly she wanted me to.

Still, the fact that she chose to engage with Bauer a second time and the obvious financial motive makes me a bit skeptical, it feels a bit like an orchestrated scheme to get rich. I guess we'll see what happens, but in this MeToo era Bauer already has the deck stacked against him no matter what the facts are. (I'm not saying he's innocent, I really have no idea, but even if he is innocent the mere accusation will destroy his reputation forever.)

[bluesky5]

Bauer always struck me as an orgy of one kind of guy.

[dominik]

It sounds like the woman literally asked for it, but if true this is sick, depraved behavior from Bauer nonetheless. I could never bring myself to abuse a woman no matter how badly she wanted me to.

Still, the fact that she chose to engage with Bauer a second time and the obvious financial motive makes me a bit skeptical, it feels a bit like an orchestrated scheme to get rich. I guess we'll see what happens, but in this MeToo era Bauer already has the deck stacked against him no matter what the facts are. (I'm not saying he's innocent, I really have no idea, but even if he is innocent the mere accusation will destroy his reputation forever.)

There are quite a few people who are into bdsm practices (especially after those shades of Grey movies) but even if you do that you are not supposed to seriously hurt the other person

[toomanyhatz]

I think that it is quite possible that Trevor Bauer will never put on a major league uniform again.

[toomanyhatz]

Trying very hard to keep this in the baseball realm...

Anyway, more details have come out, and the 'she asked for it'/'just let him play' crowd is in full-force, particularly now.

Basically, (if there are any lawyers here, they can confirm or clarify this), ALL that stuff is irrelevant. I believe the only legal question is, was consent given, or was it not? If she was unconscious, legally, morally, and any other way you want to look at it, the answer is no. And if the answer is no, that is cause for jail time, not just suspension.

And to put it back in baseball terms, the Player's Union is likely to fight for him, UNLESS player representatives tell them they prefer the union not be represented as in any way defending him. That is what I am hoping for.

This is a freaking mess for the Dodgers, and god knows how they're going to cope with their shrinking rotation. I suspect Cole Hamels will have some role here...

[Blue387]

League source confirms MLB and MLBPA have agreed to extend Trevor Bauer’s admin leave to July 27th.

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1415430548206587906

[Mongoose]

Seems like Bauer's more masochist than sadist. He excels at self-sabotage. Can't speak to specifics of the case, as I'm no authority on fetishism, but even between consenting adults, it was ill-advised for someone in his position.

It's also worth noting, nobody would have done anything about loading the ball with adhesives, if he hadn't been doing all he could to draw attention to it - and the fool was the biggest beneficiary.