Padres, Tatis Jr agree to 14 year, $340 million extension

[GiambiJuice]

Assuming he stays healthy and motivated I think this is an absolute steal for the Padres.

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[Chadwick]

Completely agree, Juice! Good call.

Tatis put up 7 WAR and 5 WAA in his first 143 MLB games. He just turned 22 and is one of the game's most dynamic, fun-to-watch players. He's on the cover of this year's MLB The Show.

Good for the Friars.

[pedrosrotatorcuff]

Surely a guy who has played at an elite level for less than one full MLB season's worth of games will still be worth $24mil+ a year 14 years down the road... surely.

Teams really do keep one-upping themselves with these nuts contracts. I guess if the Dads didn't shell out this much for him someone else would have.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Surely a guy who has played at an elite level for less than one full MLB season's worth of games will still be worth $24mil+ a year 14 years down the road... surely.

Teams really do keep one-upping themselves with these nuts contracts. I guess if the Dads didn't shell out this much for him someone else would have.

What Tatis Jr, has done at age 20-21 is incredibly rare. When a 20-21 year old hits like this they tend to end up being Hall of Fame types. In 143 games Tatis has put up 7.0 WAR while hitting .301/.374/.582, 154 OPS+. Tatis is basically where A-Rod was at age 21. With normal progression Tatis will be a superstar for years to come. The Padres bought out all of Tatis' prime. Is there a risk? Sure. But even if Tatis only puts up huge number until age 30-31 the contract would still be worth it. If Tatis averages like 6-7 WAR per season for the next ten years, which is plausible, the contract will be a bargain for the Padres.

[pedrosrotatorcuff]

What Tatis Jr, has done at age 20-21 is incredibly rare. When a 20-21 year old hits like this they tend to end up being Hall of Fame types. In 143 games Tatis has put up 7.0 WAR while hitting .301/.374/.582, 154 OPS+. Tatis is basically where A-Rod was at age 21. With normal progression Tatis will be a superstar for years to come. The Padres bought out all of Tatis' prime. Is there a risk? Sure. But even if Tatis only puts up huge number until age 30-31 the contract would still be worth it. If Tatis averages like 6-7 WAR per season for the next ten years, which is plausible, the contract will be a bargain for the Padres.

I'm not rooting for (or expecting) Fernando to crash and burn in a few years and turning this into a Jason Bay or Josh Hamilton situation. I'm just not quite as optimistic as you are that he will keep up this pace for that long.

[GiambiJuice]

I'm just not quite as optimistic as you are that he will keep up this pace for that long.

He doesn't need to keep up this pace for 14 years. If Tatis can stay healthy and keep up this pace for 8 years or so (through age 29) the contract will already have been well worth it. Anything beyond that is gravy.

I'll grant you that staying healthy for 8 straight years is a big 'if', but providing in excess of $340 million of value over 14 seasons seems like a very reasonable bet. Plus, the Padres will certainly have some insurance in place so it won't be a total loss in the event of a catastrophic injury.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I'm not rooting for (or expecting) Fernando to crash and burn in a few years and turning this into a Jason Bay or Josh Hamilton situation. I'm just not quite as optimistic as you are that he will keep up this pace for that long.

Tatis is very young and all sorts are things could go wrong. I will agree to that. I look at it from a historical point of view. When a young player hits this well they tend to be Hall of Famers. Also, scouts love this guy as well. He's got the tools to be a potential Hall of Famer. I just wonder why didn't the Padres wait a year or two to see how he plays over a more extended period of time? I'd be more comfortable giving such a huge contract if he hit like this for like three seasons or so.

[Mongoose]

I would have been wary, and waited a bit, mainly because of the stress fracture of the spine he had. David Wright's spinal stenosis was most likely related to his apparently similar injury. It took a bit of time for it to develop. Then again Dr. Jeff Wilpon had Wright playing with the injury about a month, which likely furthered the damage.

Out of the few players I can think of that had a similar injury, Wright, Lucas Duda and Bobby Crosby declined after the injury. I realize Fernando Jr. had a great third of a season last year, but I would have taken a slightly more conservative approach. He wasn't even arbitration eligible next season.

[The Korean]

Surely a guy who has played at an elite level for less than one full MLB season's worth of games will still be worth $24mil+ a year 14 years down the road... surely.

Teams really do keep one-upping themselves with these nuts contracts. I guess if the Dads didn't shell out this much for him someone else would have.

This is my problem with posts like this.

You complain he's making money too early. But when he signs mega deal later and when he's still collecting paychecks when he has nothing left, you will complain about that too.

When do you want athletes to actually make serious money?

[GiambiJuice]

This is my problem with posts like this.

You complain he's making money too early. But when he signs mega deal later and when he's still collecting paychecks when he has nothing left, you will complain about that too.

When do you want athletes to actually make serious money?

They will never be satisfied.

[pedrosrotatorcuff]

This is my problem with posts like this.

You complain he's making money too early. But when he signs mega deal later and when he's still collecting paychecks when he has nothing left, you will complain about that too.

When do you want athletes to actually make serious money?

I don't think less than a full season's worth of games is enough to shell out that much for. Bryce Harper and Mike Trout had at least proved they weren't just one-season wonders when they got their $300mil+ deals. Again, I'm not saying or hoping Tatis will hit a wall in 2021, but if he does the Padres are going to look really dumb, really fast.

[dominik]

The deal obviously is risky but the end age of age 36 is quite good. Sure players already decline in their early 30s in most cases but the truly bad contracts are the ones which go through age 40 or so like pujols, Arod or miggy.

A career ending injury could happen but if everything goes normal this deal includes a lot of good years, a few ok ones and a few not so great ones.

That's a good deal at least with today's knowledge.

[walter sobchak]

Does he get along with Machado?

I imagine Manny won't be too pleased having his contract trumped. Seems that sort of personality.

[GiambiJuice]

Does he get along with Machado?

I imagine Manny won't be too pleased having his contract trumped. Seems that sort of personality.

Machado's contract has a higher AAV than Tatis's.

[UnderPressure]

These 10-plus-year contracts need to stop. And this is coming from a fan of a team that just locked up a top 5 player in Betts. I like how the NBA does it with 5 years max.