Who Is Judge Going to Dupe and for How Much $$?

[scottmitchell74]

Aaron Judge did have a truly magnificent season and he's a great batter, clearly. But he's a a giant, he's past 30, and he has an injury history. If anyone gives him more than 5-years they're crazy.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Aaron Judge did have a truly magnificent season and he's a great batter, clearly. But he's a a giant, he's past 30, and he has an injury history. If anyone gives him more than 5-years they're crazy.

To sign a player like Judge a team will have to go beyond five years. That is simply the nature of baseball contracts these days. Teams accept that they will have to overpay for those declining seasons so the team can get the prime season up front.

[pedrosrotatorcuff]

The Yankees, like they have for several TTO-incarnate guys over the past five years or so. They'll give him something like $400mil/7–who knows really, it'll essentially be a blank check–and for the last 3 years of that contract he'll be making $57+ mil a year for 25/170/65 HR/K/BB, .700 OPS seasons. (If he can even stay on the field.)

[scottmitchell74]

The Yankees, like they have for several TTO-incarnate guys over the past five years or so. They'll give him something like $400mil/7–who knows really, it'll essentially be a blank check–and for the last 3 years of that contract he'll be making $57+ mil a year for 25/170/65 HR/K/BB, .700 OPS seasons. (If he can even stay on the field.)

Yikes! Sounds about right. Good grief.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Miguel Cabrera's last six seasons have been a real drag.

2017-22: 2,425 PA, .262/.330/.385, 96 OPS+, -2.1 WAR

For this "hitting", Cabrera was paid $180 million.

[scottmitchell74]

Miguel Cabrera's last six seasons have been a real drag.

2017-22: 2,425 PA, .262/.330/.385, 96 OPS+, -2.1 WAR

For this "hitting", Cabrera was paid $180 million.

So was the front-end worth the back-end?

2014 did happen, so...

[Honus Wagner Rules]

So was the front-end worth the back-end?

2014 did happen, so...

To the Tigers I have no doubt the front end was worth having to swallow the back end. In Cabrera's first nine seasons with the Tigers he hit:

2008-16: .325/.405/.573. 162 OPS+, 51.2 WAR

That's all time great hitting. The Tigers had a modern Johnny Mize for almost a decade. He averaged 5.7 WAR per season despite the terrible defense and baserunning. But I suspect the Tigers didn't figure Cabrera would hit the wall quite so young. At age 33 Cabrera hit .316/.393/.563, 155 OPS+, 5.1 WAR. Then the very next season his steep decline began with a 93 OPS+ and -0.9 WAR.

[pedrosrotatorcuff]

Passan reports the Yankees' latest offer is 8/~$300m. (The full ESPN article is paywalled.)

[GiambiJuice]

To the Tigers I have no doubt the front end was worth having to swallow the back end. In Cabrera's first nine seasons with the Tigers he hit:

2008-16: .325/.405/.573. 162 OPS+, 51.2 WAR

That's all time great hitting. The Tigers had a modern Johnny Mize for almost a decade. He averaged 5.7 WAR per season despite the terrible defense and baserunning. But I suspect the Tigers didn't figure Cabrera would hit the wall quite so young. At age 33 Cabrera hit .316/.393/.563, 155 OPS+, 5.1 WAR. Then the very next season his steep decline began with a 93 OPS+ and -0.9 WAR.

This is not really an accurate portrayal of what happened, though. Tigers signed him to a massive extension prior to the 2014 season, which was two years before he was due to become a free agent. His production at the front end of the contract (prior to the unwise extension) is not really relevant and doesn't do anything to balance out his terrible performance once the extra years kicked in (starting in 2016). It was a terrible idea at the time and is somehow even more terrible in hindsight, kind of like Ryan Howard's crazy extension, except worse.

[willshad]

Yanks signed him for $360 million for nine years. Could this potentially be the worst contract ever? At least Howard/Miggy level.

[pedrosrotatorcuff]

Yanks signed him for $360 million for nine years. Could this potentially be the worst contract ever? At least Howard/Miggy level.

Unless he pulls a Chris Davis then it won't be completely terrible.

[SteveJRogers]

Yanks signed him for $360 million for nine years. Could this potentially be the worst contract ever? At least Howard/Miggy level.

I really want to believe it’s so bloated in both years and budget destroying numbers based on Little Steinbrenner panicking after Jon Heyman’s gun jumping tweet about a deal with the Giants being in place.

That would be hilarious, and on point for someone with the name Steinbrenner!

[willshad]

Unless he pulls a Chris Davis then it won't be completely terrible.

Really? Even assuming he stays healthy, I think a best case scenario would be a few more years at his 2018-2021 level, then hitting the wall. Expecting anything close to 2022 again is absurd.

[dwj21792]

I'm a Yankee fan and I love Judge, But the only person I would have ever considered giving a 9 year contract to might have been Babe Ruth. And that's a stretch.

[GiambiJuice]

I'm a Yankee fan and I love Judge, But the only person I would have ever considered giving a 9 year contract to might have been Babe Ruth. And that's a stretch.

Jeter got a 10 year contract and it worked out pretty well for the most part.