Electronic Prediction 2008

[Zagi-CRO]

I made some kind of electronic prediction win vs. loss for 2008 based on 2007. players stats. A methodology is in fact very simple counting with three groups of players- starters, batters and relievers.
Each of them have some kind of rating /grade, evaluation/ from 0 - 5 /the worst to the best/

Starters - the best 1-6 starters of each team
Batters - the best 1-10
Relievers- the best 1-6

And my computer made out this prediction:

ALC	Detroit Tigers	        90	72
ALC	Cleveland Indians	88	74
ALC	Chicago White Sox	80	82
ALC	Kansas City Royals	78	84
ALC	Minnesota Twins	        70	92

ALE	Boston Red Sox	        93	69
ALE	New York Yankees	88	74
ALE	Toronto Blue Jays	86	76
ALE	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	77	85
ALE	Baltimore Orioles	71	91

ALW	Los Angeles Angels	92	70
ALW	Seattle Mariners	87	75
ALW	Oakland Athletics	68	94
ALW	Texas Rangers	        67	95

NLC	Milwaukee Brewers	86	76
NLC	Chicago Cubs	        86	76
NLC	Houston Astros	        82	80
NLC	Cincinnati Reds	        76	86
NLC	Pittsburgh Pirates	74	88
NLC	St. Louis Cardinals	71	91

NLE	New York Mets	        95	67
NLE	Philadelphia Phillies	87	75
NLE	Atlanta Braves	        80	82
NLE	Washington Nationals	72	90
NLE	Florida Marlins	        69	93

NLW	Arizona Diamondbacks	89	73
NLW	Los Angeles Dodgers	87	75
NLW	San Diego Padres	83	79
NLW	Colorado Rockies	82	80
NLW	San Francisco Giants	76	86

Seems the computer knows his job well!?

[BoofBonser26]

We'll never heard the end of Joe Morgan after this.

[Zagi-CRO]

We'll never heard the end of Joe Morgan after this.

" I'm no Joe Morgan, but I'm pretty good for ....” :cap:

[otis89]

Did your computer say who wins the tiebreaker between the Cubs and the Brewers?

[NYMets523]

Too many ties. I think the Twins will do better than the Royals, definitely better than the White Sox.

[Old Sweater]

Did you figure in any team defense, Zagi?

[SamtheBravesFan]

I seriously doubt that the Braves are going to lose 4 more games than last season too.

[NYMets523]

Considering the Braves have lost Renteria and Jones (despite his awful season is still better than Kotsay), it's not a stretch.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Considering the Braves have lost Renteria and Jones (despite his awful season is still better than Kotsay), it's not a stretch.

Their main problem was the back end of the rotation. The only way that I'll believe the prediction is plauisble is if it implodes again. They're not going to have the Fourth and Fifth Starter Shuffle like they did last season.

[NYMets523]

Neither of those rotation spots looks better than last year.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Neither of those rotation spots looks better than last year.

Says you, and I mean that in the nicest way possible. Glavine will probably approximate what James did last season, and that will be fine. Bump James down to 4th in the rotation and even if he is as bad as he was last year, it's still an improvement on that spot. Then there are many more candidates to fill the fifth spot, now that the main culpirts of the back of the rotation stinking so bad are gone (Redman, Davies, Cormier) or not likely to crack the rotation at all (Carlyle). I don't count Reyes, because I think he has room for improvement.

[NYMets523]

Glavine will probably approximate what James did last season, and that will be fine.

That's a generous prediction considering Glavine was worse. He's also 42 and unlikely to do much better.

[SamtheBravesFan]

That's a generous prediction considering Glavine was worse. He's also 42 and unlikely to do much better.

Then you don't realize how bad Chuck James was last season. Their 2007 seasons were actually similar if you look at them: James just gave up a lot more fly balls, and thus, a few more homers. I'm not looking for Glavine to do better than what he did, just be average. James has room to improve, and if he does and if the fifth starters are average, that's just cake. That is why I say that the rotation will improve overall.

[skyking162]

It would be nice to know how you ranked each team's lineup, starters, and relievers. Once you have those rankings, how did you compute an expected record?

[NYMets523]

Then you don't realize how bad Chuck James was last season. Their 2007 seasons were actually similar if you look at them: James just gave up a lot more fly balls, and thus, a few more homers. I'm not looking for Glavine to do better than what he did, just be average. James has room to improve, and if he does and if the fifth starters are average, that's just cake. That is why I say that the rotation will improve overall.

I was looking at their stats when I posed that. Other than IP and HR allowed, Glavine was worse.