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  • #31
    Originally posted by DoubleX
    So I guess track-record means absolutely nothing? There's a difference between speculation and educated guesses. Crosby for MVP is a poorly educated guess at best. Like I said, at this point, there is little reason to pick Crosby even over his own teammates like Dan Johnson and Nick Swisher, because based on potential and track record, they're probably just as likely to bust out and have an MVP type season as Crosby is this year.
    And to say it is a poorly educated guess is just dumb, just because the Yankees didnt go out and try to buy him, like everyone else who has an ounce of talent, doesn't mean he isnt very good... I'd put him in the top 15 to win the MVP award this season... no I would not pick him to win it, but to say it is a poorly educated guess shows a lack of knowledge on your part... you need to look at more than just numbers... look at the entire scope of things

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    • #32
      Let's take a look at the previous 20 MVPs in both leagues and see how many times a player that was not an already established star suddenly won the MVP (I've highlighted some players that might fit the bill, and then usually explain why they're different than Crosby):

      2005: Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols
      2004: Vladimir Guerrero, Barry Bonds
      2003: Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds
      2002: Miguel Tejada, Barry Bonds
      2001: Ichiro Suzuki, Barry Bonds
      2000: Jason Giambi, Jeff Kent
      1999: Ivan Rodriguez, Chipper Jones
      1998: Juan Gonzalez, Sammy Sosa
      1997: Ken Griffey Jr, Larry Walker
      1996: Juan Gonzalez, Ken Caminiti
      1995: Mo Vaughn, Barry Larkin
      1994: Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell
      1993: Frank Thomas, Barry Bonds
      1992: Dennis Eckersley, Barry Bonds
      1991: Cal Ripken Jr, Terry Pendleton
      1990: Rickey Henderson, Barry Bonds
      1989: Robin Yount, Kevin Mitchell
      1988: Jose Canseco, Kirk Gibson
      1987: George Bell, Andre Dawson
      1986: Roger Clemens, Mike Schmidt

      Now to the highlighted players:

      - Miguel Tejada (AL 2002): On the surface, this might sound a lot like Bobby Crosby. 26 year old SS for the Oakland Athletics with no All-Star appearances to that point. But that's about where the differences end. By this time, Tejada had 3 years of big league experience and had hit .275, 30, 115 the year before and .251, 21, 84 the year before that. Tejada's progression is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. A player, particularly a young player, usually makes stepping stones to being an MVP. It's not a sudden process, it's something you can start to see in earlier years. Tejada made the leap in 2001 to being on the cusp, thus making a 2002 MVP projection for him far more reasonable than a 2006 MVP for Bobby Crosby - Bobby Crosby has yet to make that leap to being on the cusp the way Tejada did in 2001, that's why, IMO he's still at least a year away. Tejada also finished in the top 20 in the MVP balloting in the two years previous to his MVP year; Crosby has yet to dent the balloting.

      - Ichiro Suzuki (AL 2001): He took baseball by storm, but he was the greatest player in Japanese baseball, already hardened by a decade of high level baseball (Japanese baseball is probably like AAAA quality), so he was ready and proved to us that Japanese hitters are for real.

      - Ken Caminiti (NL 1996): Caminiti was a surprise in 1996, but there are still many differences between him and Crosby. For starters, Caminiti was a very strong veteran by 1996, already 33, over 8 years of big league action, and he had made an All-Star team as well. He also had a good precursor year the season before in 1995 when he hit .302, 26, 94, that coming after five seasons of consistently solid production. Crosby does not have that track record, and again, does not have that stepping-stone year of emergence like Tejada and Caminiti did. It's not that easy to just become an MVP, a player needs to develop first, and the signs are there in the ML production in the year(s) previous to winning the award - Crosby has yet to have those years (though someone like David Wright just had that last year). Caminiti also had something else going for him in 1996 - steroids.

      - Terry Pendleton (NL 1991): This one is a true headscratcher. This award really should have gone to Barry Bonds, but I think the writers were leary of giving Bonds a second consecutive award, especially given his attitude, and I think the baseball world was enamored with the Braves miracle worst-first turnaround (the Twins did the same thing that year too). Nevertheless, Pendleton was an established veteran with seven seasons of consistenly solid (albeit unspectacular production) and he did finish in the top 20 MVP voting once before. Nevertheless, this award does give some hope to Crosby doing it as Crosby does have a ton more potential than Pendleton did entering his MVP season. Still, it's not a great example because this is really Barry Bonds' award and Pendleton's win was a mistake. So I guess the point is you can always hope for a mistake - they do happen; but given the much higher levels of offense in today's game compared to 1991, Crosby will have to do a heck of a lot to win that award. If Derek Jeter couldn't win the award in 1998 or 1999 with the numbers he put up as a SS and with being the leader of a WS Championship Team, it doesn't look good for Crosby as a SS unless he can put up A-Rod type numbers, and I really, really don't see that happenng.

      - Barry Bonds (NL 1990): I highlighted this season because Bonds was only 25 and this was his breakout season. Prior to 1990, he had never approached the type of numbers he put in 1990 (and thereafter). No All-Star appearances to this point, no MVP placing, no GGs, nothing. However, unlike Crosby, Bonds already had four years of big league experience by this point, and while his numbers in those year paled in comparison to his 1990 numbers, his numbers were still pretty good for a player ages 21-24 and certainly better than what Crosby has done in his two seasons. Bonds was already on a higher level than Crosby and had much more experience. Plus unlike Crosby, Bonds was a true 5-tool player. So I don't imagine Crosby is in for a Bonds like jump this year, especially considering that he's not as good or proven as Bonds was previous to his first MVP year anyway.

      - Kevin Mitchell (NL 1989): This award, out of the 40 listed, is about the only one that should give real hope to Crosby. Mitchell was 27 in 1989, and while he flashed some power in his three-season long career, it was nothing compared to what he'd do in 1989. Mitchell also hit 47 homeruns in 1989, 11 more than the next guy, it was the second highest total of the decade and he captured the imagination at that time by flirting with 50 (which was still a very elusive number at that point). I don't see Crosby suddenly busting out to lead the league in homeruns and do so with a number that is fairly astronomical in relation to the standards of the game at the time (especially given how desensitized we've now become about high homerun totals due to the juiced era). I'd say Crosby at this point looks just about as good as Mitchell did entering 1989. A young player with some experience and great upside. So like Mitchell, Crosby will have to make a huge leap to being an MVP. It's not easy, and that's why Mitchell is about the only player in the last 20 years to have done it and that's why the odds are not in Crosby's favor. The odds say that a player needs more experience and that precursor year which they jump from being a young player with good potential, to an All-Star with MVP potential. You don't need that middle step, but this exercise has shown that it's almost always there, and Crosby has yet to take that middle step (but again, someone like David Wright has).

      - Kirk Gibson (NL 1988): I highlighted this one because Gibson really lucked out this year. This probably wasn't even his best season as he was arguably better in any of the previous four seasons, but this was his most high profile (playing all out for a winner in LA). It was a good season, but hardly one you would think of when you think of MVP - .295, 25, 76, with 31 SB. Pretty representative of Gibson from the '84-'88 period. I say he was lucky because in a normal year, it's very unlikely he'd win the award, even in the '80s. Darryl Strawberry really should have won the award ths year (he likely lost votes due to his teammate, Kevin McReynolds also having a tremendous season). Given the level of talent in today's game, I'd say its very unlikely that Crosby will be able to luck out with a season that's good, but hardly spectacular, like Gibson in '88.

      So in sum, if history shows us anything, it's that Crosby better ask Kevin Mitchell for some advice.
      Last edited by DoubleX; 04-02-2006, 11:52 PM.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by Astro
        And to say it is a poorly educated guess is just dumb, just because the Yankees didnt go out and try to buy him, like everyone else who has an ounce of talent, doesn't mean he isnt very good... I'd put him in the top 15 to win the MVP award this season... no I would not pick him to win it, but to say it is a poorly educated guess shows a lack of knowledge on your part... you need to look at more than just numbers... look at the entire scope of things
        Excuse me?!!!!!! Did you really just say all of that, including accusing me of homerism?!! That really says more about you than me my friend.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by DoubleX
          Excuse me?!!!!!! Did you really just say all of that, including accusing me of homerism?!! That really says more about you than me my friend.
          Well in all fairness you did list Posada as a MVP candidate
          Get out the Vote!!!

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          • #35
            Originally posted by ESPNFan
            Well in all fairness you did list Posada as a MVP candidate
            Yeah I admit that was one of the selections I questioned most and was hoping to slide by (Rod Barajas is another that comes to mind). In my defense though, the list was only meant to be representative of players who at this point stand just as likely a chance as Crosby, based on history and potential for 2006, to win the MVP award. Posada is in decline and his 3rd place MVP finish in 2003 is longer ago than it seems. Still, he does have plenty of pop left in his bat, he will post an excellent OBP for a catcher, he will see more action at DH because the Yankees are carrying three catchers so that should help Posada hit better over the season (he has a tendency to wear down in the 2nd half, like almost all catchers do), and he is a catcher where offense is usually at premium and can be rewarded in the MVP balloting. Still, I have no illusions that he'll win the award.

            As for Crosby, I think it's certainly very realistic that he'll place in the top 15, and perhaps even top 10 in the MVP voting. That would be very indicative of the stepping-stone type of year I'm talking about (like Tejada in 2001). He would just have to make such a monumental leap at this point to win the MVP, and given what he's done, that kind of huge leap is just very, very rare in baseball history. So realistically, I think Crosby can definitely establish himself this year and put him in position to make that MVP jump next year, but from all I know about him (which is apparently not a lot in the estimation of some members here) I don't think he'll ever become an MVP caliber player. All-Star certainly.

            A SS has to have a pretty darn special season to win the MVP in today's environment, and I don't see what sets Crosby apart so much from Peralta or Young and a few other guys around the league. In today's environment, for a SS to win the MVP they have to put up A-Rod and Tejada like numbers - I don't think Crosby can hit .300+ with 35+ homeruns and 130+ RBI; and that's what it will likely take to win the MVP in today's conditions (plus he doesn't steal bases, so no bonus points there ).
            Last edited by DoubleX; 04-03-2006, 12:07 AM.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by scootermojo
              sydney crosby is pretty good but i think alexander olvechkin will win the rookie of the year and will be mvp when they put a better team around him in the future...oh, sorry, wrong sport!
              Crosby is a self-centered player.
              Ovechkin will definetely win the Calder

              EDIT: Why are we talking about hockey again?
              Care to join in Scott?
              Cristobal

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              • #37
                Originally posted by Astro
                I dont get what you're going on about...

                You asked in the original post what they saw in him, people have told you yet you continue to bash him...

                It doesnt really seem to me that you want to know why people picked him, but want to say how dumb of a pick it is... thats fine, but dont ask what they see in him then when people tell you why they picked him you just ignore what they say...

                And to address Peralta, Howard and Cabrera... Peralta and Howard are in their sophomore seasons, these seasons normally are much lower than their rookie seasons due to pitchers adjusting to their weakness, and if they can not adjust they fair badly...

                Cabrera is on Florida who will not even have a winning record this season, thus taking him out of MVP consideration unless he posts extremly good numbers.. and with little protection he wont have much of a chance
                For the second time, I'm not doubting that crosby has potential. But as others have pointed out, he really hasn't proven YET that he's capable of a season worthy of MVP consideration. There are many other young players and pitchers who have put up numbers before to make us think that they are capable of mvp/cyyoung caliber seasons this year.

                Crosby hasn't done that yet, but that doesn't mean he won't.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by wilkerson_rulz
                  Crosby is a self-centered player.
                  Ovechkin will definetely win the Calder

                  EDIT: Why are we talking about hockey again?
                  Care to join in Scott?
                  Crosby's a rookie, he's getting all that press with Mario. What do you expect? He's the second best rookie this year.
                  Now that Bobby Crosby. Fine player. Ways to go before mentioning his name among the elite yet.
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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Captain Cold Nose
                    Crosby's a rookie, he's getting all that press with Mario. What do you expect? He's the second best rookie this year.
                    Now that Bobby Crosby. Fine player. Ways to go before mentioning his name among the elite yet.
                    Hockey should go back on strike... who cares about hockey, I know 95% of the country doesnt
                    Last edited by Captain Cold Nose; 04-04-2006, 07:53 AM.

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                    • #40
                      Crosby's MVP campaign is not off to a great start. He went 0-2 with a K, made an error in the field, and left the game with a wrist injury.

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by DoubleX
                        Crosby's MVP campaign is not off to a great start. He went 0-2 with a K, made an error in the field, and left the game with a wrist injury.
                        You're right... lets give the MVPs to Albert Pujols and Chris Shelton... theyre on pace for 324 homeruns in a single season!

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Astro
                          You're right... lets give the MVPs to Albert Pujols and Chris Shelton... theyre on pace for 324 homeruns in a single season!
                          Interesting how you make a post yesterday riddled with pot-shots at me and insinuations that I am an under-educated homer, and then only respond to this post of mine instead of my previous posts in which I at length lay out why history is not on Crosby's side... Way to be selective fella... If you're going to disrespectfully insinuate the crap that you did, you better be able to back that up and not just pick and choose your battles.
                          Last edited by DoubleX; 04-03-2006, 09:52 PM.

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by DoubleX
                            left the game with a wrist injury.
                            ...after being spiked by Cano.
                            WAR? Prove it!

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Zito75
                              ...after being spiked by Cano.
                              It's part of the game, especially being a SS covering the bag. Hopefully he'll be back in the lineup tomorrow.

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Astro
                                Hockey should go back on strike... who cares about hockey, I know 95% of the country doesnt
                                No, you really don't know that. Nice try, though.
                                Dave Bill Tom George Mark Bob Ernie Soupy Dick Alex Sparky
                                Joe Gary MCA Emanuel Sonny Dave Earl Stan
                                Jonathan Neil Roger Anthony Ray Thomas Art Don
                                Gates Philip John Warrior Rik Casey Tony Horace
                                Robin Bill Ernie JEDI

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