Andruw Jones or Jason Bay

[Pghfan987]

If you couldn't tell by my username, icon, or past posts, I am a huge Pirates fan. As such I have always promoted some of my favorite Buccos players, oftentimes beyond what they deserve. I would like to get to know BF's stance on Jason Bay. He is of course not a "nobody", but I still don't think that people realize just how good his 2005 season was. My question is, who would you rather have on your team, the 2005 Andruw Jones, or the 2005 Jason Bay? Jones won the Player of the Year (I believe that is The Sporting News' Award), while Bay didn't finish in the Top 5 (perhaps not even top ten, I don't recall exactly) in the All-Star voting for outfielders.

Jones clearly has an advantage in the field, but Bay is certainly an above average OFer. His arm is his biggest weakness, but, since leftfield at PNC Park is perhaps has even more ground to cover than the centerfielder has, he has played very well in the field. Jones, of course, is one of the best CFers of all time defensively.

Bay has a significant advantage on the basepaths (probably the opposite of what most people would believe.) Bay stole 21 bases and got caught ONCE. Jones stole 5 bases and was caught 3 times. Bay does not have blazing speed, but he runs the basepaths exceptionally well for what speed he has.

Jones hit 51 homers in 2005, Bay 32. But Bay hit 44 doubles, and hence his slugging is only slightly behind Jones (.575 to .559).

Bay hit .306, Jones hit .263.

Bay's OPS+ was 148, Jones's was 133.


We are not taking into account whether we believe Jones' or Bay's season was a fluke or not. I am just wondering, who would you rather have on your team, if they consistenly performed like this? I would definitely take Bay in real life, but since Jones had such a tremendous season, their 2005 versions are very close. Jones' defensive advantage probably makes up for Bay's offensive advantage (at least I think it does- not to mention the fact that Bay had no protection last year), but I think that Bay's baserunning might be the tiebreaker.

I keep hearing this stat that Bay was the first Pirate to hit 30 homers, 40 doubles, 20 SBs, 100 RBIs, and hit .300. I think that is right, but I will have to look it up. It is not the best offensive season in Pirates' history, but the well-roundedness is impressive.


Clearly I have been quite biased in my argument. What do you think?

Mark

PS- Vote for Bay for this All-Star game! I am going, and I want to see him start!

[Pghfan987]

By the way, if you happen to have time, briefly explain your reasoning. Do you feel that Bay had the better offensive season? Do you think that Jones' defensive advantage is too much? Who would you draft onto your team if you were starting a new franchise?

Thanks.

Mark

[Taco De Muerte]

Bay. Easily a superior hitter. Jones defensively has " downgraded " a lot. He's no longer great defensively, infact he's below average.

[jpenrod]

Bay. Easily a superior hitter. Jones defensively has " downgraded " a lot. He's no longer great defensively, infact he's below average.

Easily a superior hitter? Yes his batting average and and OBP are higher I give you that; however Bay accounted for 179 runs and Jones accounted for 172 runs (either scoring them or driving them in) and after all isn't that kind of the point of hitting to produce runs for your team? I can live with people saying that Bay is a better hitter, but in my opinoin saying he is Easily a superior hitter is carrying it a little far.


As for being a below average fielder, I would like to see you back that up. his FPCT last year was .995 tied for second in the majors among CF. his RF was 2.48 good for 10th in the Majors. ZR was .873 for 16th in the majors and he was 2 among Major League CF with 11 Assists. His fielding Win Shares of 5.8 was good for 7th in the Majors among OF. which of these stats classify him as below average?

[Dasperp]

however Bay accounted for 179 runs and Jones accounted for 172 runs (either scoring them or driving them in)

RBI and runs scored are too team-reliant and overvalue the homerun (counts as both an RBI and run scored). Bay was easily the better offensive player, though the positional adjustment for CF may put Jones on top for overall value.

[jpenrod]

RBI and runs scored are too team-reliant and overvalue the homerun (counts as both an RBI and run scored). Bay was easily the better offensive player, though the positional adjustment for CF may put Jones on top for overall value.

I suppose this is a manner of opinion about the over value of Runs and RBI. In my opinion this is the primary purpose of a hitter, to produce runs, and so I consider these stats valuable. I do understand the argument about being team stats, but the fact remains that the next closest player to Jones on the Braves team was Marcus Giles who was 20 behind him. As for runs and RBI's counting HR twice, check my math 95 runs plus 128 rbi-51 hr = 172. 110 runs + 101 RBI -32 HR = 179. If I did not account for that Jones would have been ahead of Bay.

[Mattingly]

RBI and runs scored are too team-reliant and overvalue the homerun (counts as both an RBI and run scored). Bay was easily the better offensive player, though the positional adjustment for CF may put Jones on top for overall value.

In that case, which stats that aren't team-dependent put Jason Bay head and shoulders above Andruw Jones? Please explain.

[KCGHOST]

Bay had the better offensive season. His OPS was .961 to Jones .921. This can almost all be accounted for in Jones making 35 more outs in 25 fewer at bats. Bay had an OPS+ of 148 to Jones 123. Bay had an EqA of .326 to Jones .282. Bay had a WARP3 of 10.6 to Jones 8.1. At the plate Bay was superior to Jones in 2005.

I have heard some of the pundits saying that Jones has declined defensively, but they seem to be hard pressed to prove it.

[Taco De Muerte]

Easily a superior hitter? Yes his batting average and and OBP are higher I give you that; however Bay accounted for 179 runs and Jones accounted for 172 runs (either scoring them or driving them in) and after all isn't that kind of the point of hitting to produce runs for your team? I can live with people saying that Bay is a better hitter, but in my opinoin saying he is Easily a superior hitter is carrying it a little far

The stats clearly show that bay was a superior hitter lastyear. Heck, jones was third on his own team in winshares.

[As for being a below average fielder, I would like to see you back that up. his FPCT last year was .995 tied for second in the majors among CF. his RF was 2.48 good for 10th in the Majors. ZR was .873 for 16th in the majors and he was 2 among Major League CF with 11 Assists. His fielding Win Shares of 5.8 was good for 7th in the Majors among OF. which of these stats classify him as below average?

Fielding% is vastly overrated, especially for outfielders. It puts players with better range at a disadvantage since errors are so subjective.

Fielding Bible rates Aaron Rowand as the best CF. Zone rating puts Jeremy Reed at no one last year with Rowand a close second. ZR puts Wells at 4, Edmonds at 10, and Jones way down at 16. FRAA rates jones at -3 lastyear. He used to be the best defensive CF ever, not anymore.

[Go Bravos!!!#1]

51 Home Runs, 128 RBI, and the games current greatest CF are good enough for me to take Andruw over Bay.

[Mattingly]

Since the 2005 numbers were being listed here, I'm guessing that those are the only ones being considered. Therefore, here's the regular stats of both:

Jason Bay, LF, PIT:

 Year Ag Tm  Lg  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   TB   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP 
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
 2005 26 PIT NL 162  599  110  183  44  6  32  101  21  1  95 142  .306  .402  .559  335   0   7   9   6  12

Andruw Jones, CF, ATL:

 Year Ag Tm  Lg  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   TB   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP 
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
 2005 28 ATL NL 160  586   95  154  24  3  51  128   5  3  64 112  .263  .347  .575  337   0   7  13  15  19

As to the comparison, on games played and ABs, they're a wash. On hits, Bay has an advantage (183 to 154). On doubles, Bay has a strong advantage (44 to 24). Triples, I don't count much, but Bay has 6 to Jones' 3. For HRs, Jones has a strong advantage (51 to 32), and a decent advantage for RBI (128 to 101).

If you consider speed a factor in offense, then Bay's 21:3 SB:CS ratio is very good, compared to Jones' 5:3 ratio. Bay had almost 50% more walks (95 to 64), but 30 more whiffs (142 to 112). For AVG, Bay's .306 is a good deal better than Jones' .263. For OBP, Bay's .402 is also better than Jones' .347. However, Jones .575 SLG is slightly better than Bay's .559. They have almost identical TBs.

I'd agree that Bay's offense is superior to Jones. However, I wouldn't exactly call Bay "easily far outpacing" or whatever than Jones, since we're not talking about Pujols or Derrek Lee here.

As to defense, I have no idea how a left fielder's defense is compared to a center fielder's. Doesn't Andruw have to cover more ground? Has anyone seen Jason Bay's fielding to say that he's among the elite in LF? Is he better than Bonds in Barry's prime?

EDIT: Change "Jones .402" to "Bay's .402" in 3rd to last paragraph.

[grizzly451]

Seems like you could always answer the offense question with who you would want batting in a must win situation. I know thats not the greatest way, but a player's average with RISP is a very important thing to think about. I'm sure I could find that information somewhere, but I'm on dial-up (thats my excuse).

I would agree that Bay would be superior on the basepaths, both in stealing ability and speed. Andruw used to have good speed, but that is definitely old news.

In the field I would have to give Andruw the edge, he still plays the field very well, coverage and his arm. Bay was definitely a solid fielder though.

[Astro]

Bay leads Jones in almost all primary categories except for homeruns and RBIs, and being on the Pirates certainly doesnt help his chance to get RBIs, yet he still had over 100

Played more games, had many more runs, many more hits, more extra base hits, many more walks, an obsurd 95.5% success rate at stealing a base... higher average, higher OBP, just slightly lower SLG, higher OPS, only 2 less total bases, grounded in to far less double plays

Created 30 more runs than Jones (143.2 to 113.2), over 2 more runs per 9 innings (8.9 to 6.6), much higher total average (1.065 to .927) and a higher secondary average (.446 to .425)

A higher VORP (72.6 to 52.8), higher EQBA (.300 to .258). higher EQOBP (.397 to .341), higher EQA (.323 to .297)

Jason Bay destroys Andruw Jones in many offensive categories, and in the ones he does trail him it is not by very much, except for homeruns which people put entirely too much stock into...

You also must remember 2005 was only Jason Bay's 2nd full season in the majors, Andruw Jones has been around for, what, 8 or 9 years?

There is no doubt in my mind if you had put Jason Bay on a contender, he would have received as many, if not more, MVP votes than Andruw Jones in 2005... and rightfully so

[jpenrod]

Played more games

Seriously dude he played in 2 more games, what is the point?

had many more runs

Yeah all of 15, and as you already said he played in more games.

Created 30 more runs than Jones (143.2 to 113.2)

I do not understand these numbers can you explain where they came from?

[Taco De Muerte]

Lastyear jones was third in total ws on his own team, LOL.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/winshares/index.php?sort=total&sort2=WSAB&limit1=ATL&limit2=&leagueLimit=

Also, he was 4th in just batting WS - LOL, and people thought this guy was worthy of lastyear's MVP.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/winshares/index.php?sort=bat&sort2=WSAB&limit1=ATL&limit2=&leagueLimit=