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Over and Under Wins Phillies Big 4

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  • #16
    mlb.com had the 1993 staff as the best rotation

    Originally posted by SamtheBravesFan View Post
    Clearly, they're star-struck by the front four names. I even think that Jayson Stark made a mistake in comparing the 2011 rotation to the 1993 Braves in the article. He should have compared them to the 1997 or 1998 rotation instead; they were better.
    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
    3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

    Comment


    • #17
      The 2011 Giants have at least a 25% chance of being better than the Phillies. Age is on their side, as their top 4 have ages of 26, 27, 28, and 21. Lincecum had a DOWN year last year. Bumgarner can only get better. Sanchez is an area of question for me, though.
      Originally posted by Cougar
      "Read at your own risk. Baseball Fever shall not be responsible if you become clinically insane trying to make sense of this post. People under 18 must read in the presence of a parent, guardian, licensed professional, or Dr. Phil."

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
        Everyone over at ESPN Baseball is going ga-ga over the Phillies four starters with headlines like:

        "Lee: Phillies' loaded rotation 'can be historic"

        "Best rotation in 40 years?"

        Obviously, the front four are all really good pitchers. But one of the greatest, historic staffs in decades? Seriously? Will they even be better than the 2011 Giants staff? In 2010 the Giants pitching led the National League in IP, fewest hits allowed, ERA, ERA+, strikeouts, K/9, and H/9. They were second in runs allowed (just two more than the Padres). Yet, no one is calling the Giants staff a "historic" staff. And the Giants bullpen is better than the Phillies bullpen. Somehow adding Lee to the Phillies will take from being a good pitching staff to "historic"?
        You're missing the point , it's just not the addition of Lee. It will be having Oswalt for a full season, not just 12 games, but the biggest part is not having to run Kyle Kendrick out there as their number 3 starter, or Jamie Moyer who had 19 starts before getting hurt.

        Replace Kendricks 4.73 era and 1.37 whip with Oswalts 2.76 era and 1.025 whip......then replace Moyers 4.84 era and 3.15 k/BB with Lee's 3.39 and 7.40 k/BB ( 2009 NL Stats )

        and slot Cole Hamels in the # 4 rotation slot and there will be a different set of overall staff numbers.

        All 4 of these guys go deep into games, not the typical 5 innings Kendrick and Moyer did. This will eliminate a lot of middle relief problems the Phils had last season.

        Madson is an excellent 8th inning guy, 2.55 era/1.038 whip, and Lidge, once He returned from his early season DL injuries, settled into a decent year, 2.96/1.22

        They may not be ' Historic" but if they pitch to their norm, will be top 2 in the league with the Giants.

        With Kendrick and Moyer in the rotation last year they were not far off from the Giants.
        ERA of 3.60 for SF and 3.67 for Phils, whip of 1.299 for SF and 1.38 Phils, k/9 6.77 SF to 6.58 Phils....BB SF - 578 Phils 416.

        Both staffs will be top of the line if both stay healthy.

        Comment


        • #19
          ^

          and in those 12 starts, Oswalt had a 1.82 ERA, I bet he doesnt come close to that over a full season

          and the Giants only had Bumgarner for 18 starts and he replaced a guy with a 5.88 ERA (Wellemeyer)

          plus the Phillies gave up significantly more Hits (1402 to 1279) and HR (168 to 134) than the Giants and had significantly less K (1183 to 1331)

          the ages of the Giants main 5 last year was 20, 25, 26, 27 and 32 (average 26)

          the 5 the Phillies should roll out will be 27, 30, 32, 33 and 34, 4 of the 5 over 30 and the youngest one at 27 (average age 31)

          experience is good, but youth and youthful arms can't be taken for granted

          the Phillies pitchers will be more suceptible to injury and longer recoveries

          I am hoping they have no injuries

          ---------------

          not sure if the 3.60 only applies to starters as the Giants had a 3.36 ERA (3.20 for the entire second half) ?? and 3.36 is significantly better than 3.68
          Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 12-15-2010, 06:46 PM.
          1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
          2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
          3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
            mlb.com had the 1993 staff as the best rotation
            MLB.com isn't exactly the pinnacle of historical research of baseball statistics. Just because the rotation has two 20-game winners doesn't mean that it's the best. Glavine led the team with 22 wins, but he was their worst starter outside of Pete Smith.

            Again, I prefer 1997 or 1998.
            46 wins to match last year's total

            Comment


            • #21
              I Like Avery over Neagle despite any stats they put up (personal preference)

              Avery threw hard Neagle was a junk baller
              1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
              2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
              3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
                I Like Avery over Neagle despite any stats they put up (personal preference)

                Avery threw hard Neagle was a junk baller
                Maddux and Glavine were also junkballers. Their fastballs topped out around 88. Maddux might have thrown a bit harder.
                Originally posted by Cougar
                "Read at your own risk. Baseball Fever shall not be responsible if you become clinically insane trying to make sense of this post. People under 18 must read in the presence of a parent, guardian, licensed professional, or Dr. Phil."

                Comment


                • #23
                  neagle was not in their league

                  124 wins and a career 4.24 era

                  Originally posted by nerfan View Post
                  Maddux and Glavine were also junkballers. Their fastballs topped out around 88. Maddux might have thrown a bit harder.
                  1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
                  2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
                  3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
                    neagle was not in their league

                    124 wins and a career 4.24 era
                    Avery wasn't in their league either; 96 career wins and a 4.19 ERA. What's your point?
                    46 wins to match last year's total

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      follow the thread

                      I chose Avery over Neagle the other three were the same

                      I said I like Avery's fast ball vs Neagles junk

                      the other poster said Maddux and glavine were junkballers too

                      I said neagle may throw similar pitches to the hall of famers he aint in their league

                      it goes back to neagle vs avery

                      i prefer avery

                      pretty easy to follow point if you follow the thread

                      and espn and mlb network both prefer the 1993 braves starters




                      Originally posted by SamtheBravesFan View Post
                      Avery wasn't in their league either; 96 career wins and a 4.19 ERA. What's your point?
                      1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
                      2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
                      3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        It seems in any sport, whenever a 'dream team' of stars is assembled for an entire season, it always ends up in disappointment. Remember when Belle and Thomas were supposed to be the next Ruth and Gehrig? Remember a few years back the Tigers were supposed to break the record for runs scored? Remember the Lakers had Kobe, Shaq, Malone, and Payton? The problem, is we tend to think best case scenerio, and assume all the guys will match the best season the ever had. Off seasons happen. Injuries happen. Three of thesee guys are 30+ years old, and Halladay has pitched a ton of innings every year. The odds are that at least one of them, probably two, will have an off year ( did Glavine, Maddux and Smoltz ever all have great full seasons in the same year?)
                        That said, I like Oswalt the best out of the three; he is a safe bet to win 20, perhaps 25. Halladay I see getting hurt, and Lee I think will fall off a cliff. Hammels has great potential and could surprise by being the second best of the three. I think am guessing around 65 wins between the three.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          I don't think Oswalt needs the Phillies bats to improve in order to win 20. He was 7-1 in about a third of the season with them last year.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by nerfan View Post
                            The 2011 Giants have at least a 25% chance of being better than the Phillies. Age is on their side, as their top 4 have ages of 26, 27, 28, and 21. Lincecum had a DOWN year last year. Bumgarner can only get better. Sanchez is an area of question for me, though.
                            Jonathan is an enigma to me. He did pitch better in 2010 than he ever did. But I think he is high wire act. He walks a ton (led the NL), and gave up 21 HRs (a somewhat high number). But he also has swing and miss stuff. He had 205 Ks (8th in NL), 9.54 K/9 (3rd in NL), .204 BAA (led NL), .343 SLG (8th in NL), 6.6 H/9 (led NL), 3.07 ERA (13th in NL), and a 133 ERA+ (9th in NL). If Sanchez can cut down on the walks he could really be something.
                            Last edited by Honus Wagner Rules; 12-15-2010, 11:26 PM.
                            Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              You think Oswalt is going to have a 1.82 ERA over a full season??

                              I dont

                              Originally posted by willshad View Post
                              I don't think Oswalt needs the Phillies bats to improve in order to win 20. He was 7-1 in about a third of the season with them last year.
                              1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
                              2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
                              3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                I'll just wait for the season to start. A lot can happen to derail a team's chances.
                                RIP Ronnie James Dio (July 10, 1942 - May 16, 2010).

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