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Over and Under Wins Phillies Big 4

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  • Over and Under Wins Phillies Big 4

    How many games will the Phillies Big 4 win next year?
    39
    0-47
    0.00%
    0
    48-55
    5.13%
    2
    56-64
    25.64%
    10
    65-70
    23.08%
    9
    71-77
    25.64%
    10
    78-84
    10.26%
    4
    85 or more
    10.26%
    4

    The poll is expired.

    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
    3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

  • #2
    PS

    The Philadelphia Inquirer points out that the last five teams that had at least four 15-game winners in its starting rotation all failed to win the World Series: 1993 Braves, 1998 Braves, 2001 Mariners, 2003 Yankees and 2004 Cardinals.
    (As did the 1971 Orioles with 4 20 game winners)


    The 1973 Oakland A's crew of Catfish Hunter (21-5), Ken Holtzman (21-13) and Vida Blue (20-9) had three 20 game winners AND won the World Series. That group gave Oakland a third straight World Series championship in 1974, when Hunter won 25 games and the A's had the AL's best ERA.

    And can the Phillies match the 2010 Giants for a record setting 18 straight games of allowing 3 runs or less AND being dominant in the post season.
    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
    3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

    Comment


    • #3
      I'm not so sure Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels are threats to win 20. 15 is within their reach, though. They make for very good No. 3 and 4 starters. But it's not like the Phillie bats improved. I see them getting around 60 or so wins between them.
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      Comment


      • #4
        Those guys won 58 times in a combined 127 starts last year.
        Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by KCGHOST View Post
          Those guys won 58 times in a combined 127 starts last year.
          Don't think the Phillies care how many wins their pitchers are credited with, as long as the team receives one.

          Out of those 127 starts, what were their teams W-L ? Bet that's another 20-30 W's.

          Comment


          • #6
            The Giants "Big Four" will win more in 2011.
            Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

            Comment


            • #7
              Roy Halladay is probably the best bet to win 20 games in the major leagues, simply because he stays in games forever and gets a lot of decisions. The rest could all win 15+, so I'll put them in the 65-70 group optimistically.
              Originally posted by Cougar
              "Read at your own risk. Baseball Fever shall not be responsible if you become clinically insane trying to make sense of this post. People under 18 must read in the presence of a parent, guardian, licensed professional, or Dr. Phil."

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                The Giants "Big Four" will win more in 2011.
                I'm with you on this one. I think Cain will have a big year in the win column, playing Welch to Lincecum's Stewart. For the Phils, I think Halladay will win 20+ again, Lee will win the least of the four. I figure them for 65 wins, and still think the team as a whole should win at least 105, in that their lineup is the best on paper in the NL. Mayhap I'm just being a tad snarky on this, I just don't really like the whole rent-a-roster cherry picking that has long been the case with the Yankees and is also evident in the NBA in Miami. In all fairness, losing Werth will hurt, but it's hard to see anything less than 100 wins with that staff, unless their relievers completely blow up. It will be fun to watch in any event, and scary to face in a four game series.

                Comment


                • #9
                  The Phillies could probably make use of a 4 man rotation with strict pitch counts and shop Kendrick AND Blanton.
                  Originally posted by Cougar
                  "Read at your own risk. Baseball Fever shall not be responsible if you become clinically insane trying to make sense of this post. People under 18 must read in the presence of a parent, guardian, licensed professional, or Dr. Phil."

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I will say you can't over emphasize enough the stability a solid starting pitching staff brings to a team, I may not be La Russa's biggest fan but he has done this many times, trading a gold glove caliber SS (Alfredo Griiffin) to get another quality starter - Bob Welch and he had some guys in Chicago he could roll out and of course has had some great starters in St. Louis

                    I think a team relaxes and feels better (and is not so amped to try and win a game by themselves) when they know a quality arm will go out there every start. It just is good for a long 162 game season.

                    With that said, the Phillies have pretty much made Hamels go from their #1 pitcher during a 2008 world championship year to their #4 starter and that says a lot

                    Let me do a guestimate based on BEST CASE scenario

                    Halladay 23 wins
                    Lee 19 wins
                    Oswalt 19 wins
                    Hamels 16 wins

                    total 77 wins

                    that is assuming they all make the "normal" amount of starts over a full year

                    now lets do a worse case scenario (Still based on a full season of starts)

                    Halladay 17 wins
                    Lee 14 wins
                    Oswaldt 14 wins
                    Hamels 12 wins

                    total 57 wins

                    so the "average" of the best and worse case would be 67 wins

                    but I think the Phillies are gonna have a little chip on their shoulder for letting the Giants get the best of them and if anything, they can;t have all the injuries they had last year and as I recall they played pretty damn good ball (like 34-8) once Utley and Rollins etc returned

                    I am going to lean closer to the 77 best case wins and go with 73
                    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
                    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
                    3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Giants vs Phillies in 2011 should be fun to watch. It will be even more fun if they meet again in the postseason.
                      Last edited by Honus Wagner Rules; 12-15-2010, 04:14 PM.
                      Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                        Giants vs Phillies in 2011 should be fun to watch. It will be even more fun if they meet again in the postseason.
                        will be a nice pitching duel. last year the giants pitchers absolutely shot down the phillies offense.

                        overall I think the phillie pitching next year won't be much better than the giants pitching if at all. they might have a slight advantage ith their starters, but the giants bullpen is really lights out.
                        I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          halladay goes 24-7
                          lee goes 20-8
                          oswalt goes 18-10
                          hamels goes 15-10

                          they go 77-35


                          but the other starters will go like 5-30 and there will be blown saves as expected


                          that lineup sucks if a certain slugging 1st basemen and 2nd basemen get hurt again

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Everyone over at ESPN Baseball is going ga-ga over the Phillies four starters with headlines like:

                            "Lee: Phillies' loaded rotation 'can be historic"

                            "Best rotation in 40 years?"

                            Obviously, the front four are all really good pitchers. But one of the greatest, historic staffs in decades? Seriously? Will they even be better than the 2011 Giants staff? In 2010 the Giants pitching led the National League in IP, fewest hits allowed, ERA, ERA+, strikeouts, K/9, and H/9. They were second in runs allowed (just two more than the Padres). Yet, no one is calling the Giants staff a "historic" staff. And the Giants bullpen is better than the Phillies bullpen. Somehow adding Lee to the Phillies will take from being a good pitching staff to "historic"?
                            Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                              Everyone over at ESPN Baseball is going ga-ga over the Phillies four starters with headlines like:

                              "Lee: Phillies' loaded rotation 'can be historic"

                              "Best rotation in 40 years?"

                              Obviously, the front four are all really good pitchers. But one of the greatest, historic staffs in decades? Seriously? Will they even be better than the 2011 Giants staff? In 2010 the Giants pitching led the National League in IP, fewest hits allowed, ERA, ERA+, strikeouts, K/9, and H/9. They were second in runs allowed (just two more than the Padres). Yet, no one is calling the Giants staff a "historic" staff. And the Giants bullpen is better than the Phillies bullpen. Somehow adding Lee to the Phillies will take from being a good pitching staff to "historic"?
                              Clearly, they're star-struck by the front four names. I even think that Jayson Stark made a mistake in comparing the 2011 rotation to the 1993 Braves in the article. He should have compared them to the 1997 or 1998 rotation instead; they were better.
                              46 wins to match last year's total

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