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How will Albert Pujols age?

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  • #61
    Aged into the greatest first baseman of all-time.
    "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

    Comment


    • #62
      Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
      Aged into the greatest first baseman of all-time.
      I think Gehrig was better but I'm more than comfortable putting Pujols at number 2.
      My top 10 players:

      1. Babe Ruth
      2. Barry Bonds
      3. Ty Cobb
      4. Ted Williams
      5. Willie Mays
      6. Alex Rodriguez
      7. Hank Aaron
      8. Honus Wagner
      9. Lou Gehrig
      10. Mickey Mantle

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
        Aged into the greatest first baseman of all-time.
        I lean more toward that he aged himself out of it. Or perhaps, that the second half of his career has nothing to do with it. It's tough to watch players slog it out for a couple of years after their prime. But a decade? That's really hard, and it sticks in people's minds. I've enjoyed his final resurgence, of course.

        Adjusting for era, and considering his all-around game, he was the best at his peak, and it was a long peak.

        He was elite his first 12 seasons, racking up 91.5 WAR, with a batting line of .325/.414/.608.

        In the last 11 seasons, he's accumulated 9.5 WAR, with a batting line of .252/.308/.442.

        A tale of two careers. Literally. He meets the Hall of Fame minimum service time twice.

        From a baseball perspective, I would have preferred he retired after 2012, numbers unsullied. From a human perspective, he seems like a great person and I'm glad he cashed in for his family's sake, although I'm sorry he had to deal with all of that foot pain for years.

        Similarly, Miguel Cabrera really should have retired 6 years ago. Still a long time to be mediocre, but less than Albert, so his career stats haven't been affected as much. I'd really like to see the Tigers buy out Cabrera (he's also suffering with pain), have him retire, and go into the HOF first ballot with Pujols in 5 years.
        Chop! Chop! Chop!

        Comment


        • #64
          Originally posted by Bigfoot 88 View Post

          I lean more toward that he aged himself out of it. Or perhaps, that the second half of his career has nothing to do with it. It's tough to watch players slog it out for a couple of years after their prime. But a decade? That's really hard, and it sticks in people's minds. I've enjoyed his final resurgence, of course.

          Adjusting for era, and considering his all-around game, he was the best at his peak, and it was a long peak.

          He was elite his first 12 seasons, racking up 91.5 WAR, with a batting line of .325/.414/.608.

          In the last 11 seasons, he's accumulated 9.5 WAR, with a batting line of .252/.308/.442.

          A tale of two careers. Literally. He meets the Hall of Fame minimum service time twice.

          From a baseball perspective, I would have preferred he retired after 2012, numbers unsullied. From a human perspective, he seems like a great person and I'm glad he cashed in for his family's sake, although I'm sorry he had to deal with all of that foot pain for years.

          Similarly, Miguel Cabrera really should have retired 6 years ago. Still a long time to be mediocre, but less than Albert, so his career stats haven't been affected as much. I'd really like to see the Tigers buy out Cabrera (he's also suffering with pain), have him retire, and go into the HOF first ballot with Pujols in 5 years.

          I'm the polar-opposite. Huge career numbers/goals are important in all walks of life, baseball is no different. He's earned his 3000/700/2200 +

          You can't get to those astounding #'s without the whole career.

          Comment


          • #65
            Originally posted by scottmitchell74 View Post


            I'm the polar-opposite. Huge career numbers/goals are important in all walks of life, baseball is no different. He's earned his 3000/700/2200 +

            You can't get to those astounding #'s without the whole career.
            I like consistency. Now, Pujols wasn't inconsistent year-to-year. As I mentioned, it was as if he essentially had two cleanly split, divided careers. In the end, his career averages are a bit misleading. They undersell how good he was in his first half and overstate how good he was in his second half.

            It's hard to find a parallel. Like I mentioned, Cabrera has played 6 years too long. Pete Rose played 5 years too long. It's why, despite being the "hit king," nobody really considers him one of the greatest hitters ever. The thresholds reached by Rose and Pujols feel different to me than say, those reached by Willie Mays and Hank Aaron. They gave themselves a year or two to see if they were just in a slump to break out of, realized they were not their old selves, and retired. That's the kind of career I prefer personally.

            Now that I think of it, the best comparison to Pujols is probably recent: Ichiro. His first 10 seasons, he hit .331. His last 9 seasons, he hit .268. Two entirely different careers. I prefer to remember the former.
            Chop! Chop! Chop!

            Comment


            • #66

              I can see what you're saying for sure, I just take the other stance. I like the idea of the sport forcing the player out. I hate wondering "what if." Also, great athletes always think the next season will be better. I can't imagine a 34 year old Pujols thinking he was done.


              Also, it's funny; if somebody put up this stat line for an 11-year career we'd say, "Oh, that was a fine, useful career." And this has been Pujols' last 11 years. I guess it wasn't up to his super-lofty standards, but it's a solid Major League career.



              1365 5577 5081 613 1301 230 1 253 874 33 8 395 694 .256 .312 .451 .764 110
              14.3 WAR

              Comment


              • #67
                My favorite first basemen are John Kruk & Donnie Baseball. I also love Willie Stargell. I think Foxx was the most talented, Gehrig was the greatest and Pujols was the most valuable, all things considered. Mark McGwire is my hero, due to his work outside baseball, with abused children. I've probably read more about Cap Anson, an odious guy, but just really fascinating.
                That being said, I think Pujols is the best 1st Baseman ever, despite his decline. He aged terribly if we're being honest. But Dude --- Hes Albert Pujols -

                Comment


                • #68
                  I don’t think he aged that bad considering the injuries, the shift and extreme specialized relief he had to face. He’s basically hit 700 home runs and doubles at the most offense oriented position. Not sure how many hits, XBH, HR, RBI a guy has to get in order to be the GOAT.

                  As of now he has 1904 runs, 3374 hits, 685 doubles, 698 HR, 2203 RBI, .296/.374/.543 and hit .321/.426/.581 in 296 postseason AB.

                  Like, seriously what’s the standard, what does he need to do to be the GOAT? 800+ homers and doubles? A .350/.450/.650 career slash line?
                  "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
                    I don’t think he aged that bad considering the injuries, the shift and extreme specialized relief he had to face. He’s basically hit 700 home runs and doubles at the most offense oriented position. Not sure how many hits, XBH, HR, RBI a guy has to get in order to be the GOAT.

                    As of now he has 1904 runs, 3374 hits, 685 doubles, 698 HR, 2203 RBI, .296/.374/.543 and hit .321/.426/.581 in 296 postseason AB.

                    Like, seriously what’s the standard, what does he need to do to be the GOAT? 800+ homers and doubles? A .350/.450/.650 career slash line?
                    If only he had the foresight to retire after 11 years with this line:



                    .328 .421 .617 1.037 170



                    Of course then every last writer and fan would wonder endlessly "what if?" Like we do with Joe D, Hank, Barry Sanders, Puckett, Andrew Luck, Gale Sayers, Megatron, Lefty O'Doul and others who for whatever reason had short (ened)
                    careers.

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Originally posted by scottmitchell74 View Post

                      If only he had the foresight to retire after 11 years with this line:



                      .328 .421 .617 1.037 170
                      If he had the foresight he would still take the $252 million.
                      My top 10 players:

                      1. Babe Ruth
                      2. Barry Bonds
                      3. Ty Cobb
                      4. Ted Williams
                      5. Willie Mays
                      6. Alex Rodriguez
                      7. Hank Aaron
                      8. Honus Wagner
                      9. Lou Gehrig
                      10. Mickey Mantle

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
                        I don’t think he aged that bad considering the injuries, the shift and extreme specialized relief he had to face. He’s basically hit 700 home runs and doubles at the most offense oriented position. Not sure how many hits, XBH, HR, RBI a guy has to get in order to be the GOAT.

                        As of now he has 1904 runs, 3374 hits, 685 doubles, 698 HR, 2203 RBI, .296/.374/.543 and hit .321/.426/.581 in 296 postseason AB.

                        Like, seriously what’s the standard, what does he need to do to be the GOAT? 800+ homers and doubles? A .350/.450/.650 career slash line?
                        Pujols did not age well past age 30. I don't see how this point is debatable. There are several great hitters who DID age well past age 30, such as Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Honus Wagner, Ted Williams, etc., That's why he's not in the "GOAT" conversation. It's really not that complicated.

                        He was one of the all time greatest hitters in the first half of his career and he was below average for the last several years (2022 notwithstanding).
                        Last edited by GiambiJuice; 09-23-2022, 06:26 AM.
                        My top 10 players:

                        1. Babe Ruth
                        2. Barry Bonds
                        3. Ty Cobb
                        4. Ted Williams
                        5. Willie Mays
                        6. Alex Rodriguez
                        7. Hank Aaron
                        8. Honus Wagner
                        9. Lou Gehrig
                        10. Mickey Mantle

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post

                          Pujols did not age well past age 30. I don't see how this point is debatable. There are several great hitters who DID age well past age 30, such as Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Honus Wagner, TedWilliam's, etc., That's why he's not in the "GOAT" conversation. It's really not that complicated.

                          He was one of the all time greatest hitters in the first half of his career and he was below average for the last several years (2022 notwithstanding).
                          I think that's true...with an amendment/caveat: He did not age well compared to himself. If we double his last 11 years(to date) we get:

                          Hits - 2604

                          Runs - 1226

                          2B - 460

                          HR - 506

                          RBI - 1748

                          Slash - .256/.312/.452/.763/110 OPS+ (Over 11162 PAs)


                          That's obviously not inner-circle or early-ballot HOF material, but it's someone who would probably get in eventually. That's his crappy decline-phase simply doubled.

                          If your crappy decline-phase - doubled - makes you a borderline Hall of Famer and one of the 25 best HR and RBI guys ever, you must have been pretty good.
                          Last edited by scottmitchell74; 09-23-2022, 05:51 AM.

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Originally posted by scottmitchell74 View Post

                            I think that's true...with an amendment/caveat: He did not age well compared to himself. If we double his last 11 years(to date) we get:

                            Hits - 2604

                            Runs - 1226

                            2B - 460

                            HR - 506

                            RBI - 1748

                            Slash - .256/.312/.452/.763/110 OPS+ (Over 11162 PAs)


                            That's obviously not inner-circle or early-ballot HOF material, but it's someone who would probably get in eventually. That's his crappy decline-phase simply doubled.

                            If your crappy decline-phase - doubled - makes you a borderline Hall of Famer and one of the 25 best HR and RBI guys ever, you must have been pretty good.
                            That's not a Hall of Famer. That's a poor man's Paul Konerko who manages to squeak past 500 homers because he's locked into an albatross contract on a crappy team.
                            Last edited by GiambiJuice; 09-23-2022, 06:29 AM.
                            My top 10 players:

                            1. Babe Ruth
                            2. Barry Bonds
                            3. Ty Cobb
                            4. Ted Williams
                            5. Willie Mays
                            6. Alex Rodriguez
                            7. Hank Aaron
                            8. Honus Wagner
                            9. Lou Gehrig
                            10. Mickey Mantle

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post

                              Pujols did not age well past age 30. I don't see how this point is debatable. There are several great hitters who DID age well past age 30, such as Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Honus Wagner, Ted Williams, etc., That's why he's not in the "GOAT" conversation. It's really not that complicated.

                              He was one of the all time greatest hitters in the first half of his career and he was below average for the last several years (2022 notwithstanding).
                              So no one in the last 50 years. I guess when you ignore half a century it’s easy for things to not get complicated. He could have retired with the slash scottmitchell pointed out. Wouldn’t be enough. He hit 700 HR, 685 doubles, 2200 RBI- and it’s not enough. Didn’t hit enough for long enough. Nothing would ever be enough.
                              "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post

                                So no one in the last 50 years. I guess when you ignore half a century it’s easy for things to not get complicated. He could have retired with the slash scottmitchell pointed out. Wouldn’t be enough. He hit 700 HR, 685 doubles, 2200 RBI- and it’s not enough. Didn’t hit enough for long enough. Nothing would ever be enough.
                                Are we talking about GOAT player or GOAT fist baseman?
                                My top 10 players:

                                1. Babe Ruth
                                2. Barry Bonds
                                3. Ty Cobb
                                4. Ted Williams
                                5. Willie Mays
                                6. Alex Rodriguez
                                7. Hank Aaron
                                8. Honus Wagner
                                9. Lou Gehrig
                                10. Mickey Mantle

                                Comment

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