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Season about to start. Here are my final predictions for the 2012 MLB Season:
National League
EAST
1) Philadelphia Phillies: This will be my NL East Division Winners. I think they will weather the storm of losing Howard and Utley because of that great rotation with Halladay, Hamels, Lee, and Worley. I think having Pence in that lineup and his prime for a full year is also a good thing. Signing Jonathon Papelbon, who had a 2.94 ERA and 0.93 WHIP last year is brilliant and make that bullpen way better.
2) Atlanta Braves: I love their pitching. I think that Teheran will likely win Rookie of the Year for the National League. He has an incredible fastball and incredible secondary pitches. He will be an ace in this league for years to come. However, my concerns are with the offense. I think the Braves will need Freeman and Heyward to be at the top of their games to succeed and win the NL East.
3) Miami Marlins: The Marlins got much better this offseason. They signed a dynamic shortstop in Jose Reyes and with him, Stanton, and Ramirez, they will have a dynamic offense. I think getting back Josh Johnson to anchor the rotation is great and getting Bell in that pen will make them better late in games. I would not be surprised if they are a wild-card contender this year.
4) Washington Nationals: They will get a great season from Strasburg and this team has a bright future ahead with Harper on the horizon. However, I am not too impressed with the lineup and think they will struggle this year.
5) New York Mets: The offense will likely be better with a smaller ballpark. I see bounce back years for Wright and Bay as well as a breakout year from Davis. However, I can see this Mets pitching staff have problems with the new dimensions and it will lead to problems in the end. At least the team can now focus on rising from the ashes after the Picard Settlement.
CENTRAL
1) Cincinnati Reds: I think they will win the NL Central this year. They play in a park that helps their offense and they are constantly amongst the best scoring teams in baseball. Joey Votto is a beast and is perhaps the best hitter in the National League. He can hit for average, get on base, and hit for power, as evidence by his .309/.416/.531 line last year. I think adding Latos to that rotation is incredible. He is amongst the best young pitchers in baseball. For those worried about his transition to the smaller Great American Ballpark, his road FIP last year was 3.30, which is just five points higher than his PETCO FIP last year (according to Baseball Prospectus). This kid can pitch in the Grand Canyon and in a bandbox. I can see this team winning the NL Central with a Pujols-free St. Louis and Fielder-free Milwaukee.
2) St. Louis Cardinals: Although they lost Pujols, do not expect the Cardinals to become like the Cavaliers after they lost Lebron. This team has a good lineup and is playing a ballpark that can help them. It also helps that they are getting back Wainwright, who had an FIP of 2.88 in 2010 and will be back and healthy this year. Holliday had a .296/.388/.525 line last year and I think he will continue to be amongst the best left fielders in baseball. I think having Beltran in that lineup will make that team very good as well. I think that they could be a wild card team again this year and if some other factors break in their favor, they could win the Central.
3) Milwaukee Brewers: I think losing Fielder is big but miraculously for them they avoided losing Braun for 50 games due to a positive PED test that was rejected. I think they will have a good rotation as evidence by the fact that they were third in quality starts last year (behind the Phillies and Giants, according to Baseball Prospectus). Braun has shown before that he is amongst the best hitters in the sport (.332/.397/.597 last year) and I believe he will prove it again this season in spite of the cloud of suspicion that will likely surround him for the remainder of his career. I think the Brewers are in the mix for both the wildcard and the NL Central title.
4) Chicago Cubs: I think the Cubs have a future in this league now that they good executive in Theo Epstein in that front office. I believe in Castro, who is perhaps the best hitter on that team and had a .341 BABIP last year. I think he has a ton of potential and could potentially be a star in this sport. Although the Cubs may not have that much talent now, they have a crap load of upside with a smarter Executive in that front office.
5) Pittsburgh Pirates: Unfortunately, the Pirates will have their 20th losing season, but I think they are starting to get out of the gutter. I think that Andrew McCutchen is a potential star and he is someone the Pirates could build around. I think this team needs more talent at the Major League and Minor League level before I am convinced.
6) Houston Astros: So, you were the worst team in baseball last year and will likely be their again and will likely be killed by Pujols again when they move to the AL West next year. What you look forward to? Well, they can look forward to having a new front office that is analytically driven. New GM Jeff Luhnow has had had a history of acquiring major league talent, as he proved in St. Louis when he drafted 24 future major leaguers in first three years as scouting director (according to Baseball Prospectus). In that same time, the Astros had drafted only four future major leaguers, which was the worst in baseball. If you are an Astros fan, you can also look forward to having the first pick in this year's draft and early first round picks in the draft for the next few years. These next few drafts could very well shape the future of the team and I believe Luhnow will totally be successful in drafting the best talent.
WEST
1) Arizona Diamondbacks: The NL West is perhaps the toughest division to decipher. I think the division winner in 2012 will once again be Arizona. I think the Diamondbacks have some very good pitchers like Kennedy, who had a WHIP of 1.09 and a FIP of 3.19 last year. I also think that playing in that bandbox of a park will totally help their hitters as well.
2) San Francisco Giants: I will place them second because of that rotation and bullpen. Cain, Lincecum and Bumgarner all had good FIPs last year and the highest of the three was 3.21, which just shows you how good they are. Of course, people will continue to Fear the Beard but will likely not fear the offense, which ranked 29th in runs scored per game last year. However, you may see an improvement with the return of Posey. However, the lineup has too many holes to be competitive in my opinion.
3) Los Angeles Dodgers: Kershaw is the best pitcher on that team by far as evidence by his NL CY Young Title Last Year and his insane FIP of 2.44 in the aforementioned season. However, the Dodgers do not have that much else in their rotation and I think that will be a problem. At least you can look forward to Kemp and Eithier having good years, but I think the lineup does not have much else to look at. However, the recent change in ownership should easily lead to a quick turn around for this team.
4) Colorado Rockies: I think Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki will contribute as they usually do and have solid season. However, the Rockies have a terrible pitching staff and I think it will kill them this season. On the bright side, I think that Poneranz could be a very good pitcher and may have a breakout season if things go well.
5) San Diego Padres: Though the Padres have some young players who have potential, they still are weak on offense and I expect that trend to continue in 2012. The loss of Latos, Bell and Adams will also lead this team further down into the cellar this year.
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American League
EAST
1) New York Yankees: I believe that the Yankees will be my World Series favorite for the year. Granderson and Cano are the two offensive leaders of this team and they both have great OPS percentages. I also think that a rotation with Sabathia (2.91 FIP last year) and Pineda (173 Ks last year) will be dominant and hard to beat. Of course, with the Great Mariano Rivera and David Robertson, that bullpen is incredible. Obviously, playing in Yankee Stadium will give that offense a huge boost and I believe all of those factors will give the Bombers their 28th World Series Championship and will force Girardi to change his number to 29.
2) Boston Red Sox: They are another team that I believe will likely win the World Series. That lineup with Gonzalez (.338/.410/.548 in 2011), Pedroia (.307/.387/.474 in 2011) Ortiz (.309/.398/.554 in 2011) and Ellsbury (.321/.376/.552 in 2011) is hard to beat. I think that Beckett will have a bounce back year and anchor the rotation. I think that Valentine is going to be a good manager for that team and carry them to victory this season.
3) Tampa Bay Rays: Although they may not have the lineup of the Yankees, they have a rotation that is very comparable to them, if not, better than them. Price was solid last year (WHIP of 1.14) and I can see Matt Moore taking the ball and run with it this year. He will be an ace on that team for years to come and I see him as the unquestionable favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year honors.
4) Toronto Blue Jays: I see another solid year from Bautista (1.055 OPS last year) but I think the lineup and rotation is just short of the Yankees and Red Sox. However, I really believe that they have some great minds in that Blue Jays front office that can really make a difference.
5) Baltimore Orioles: I am not a fan of that lineup with that windmill Reynolds (196 Ks last year) in it. However, I am even less of a fan of their piss poor rotation and pitching staff. They gave up a major league worst 5.31 runs a game last year and it certainly does not help your cause when you are in a division with sluggers in New York, Boston, Tampa, and in Toronto.
CENTRAL
`1) Detroit Tigers: If the Tigers do not win the Central, it will be one the biggest shocker in decades. They are in what will likely be one of the easiest divisions to play in. They have a lineup that features Miguel Cabrera (.344/.415/.566 in 2011) and Prince Fielder (.299/.415/.566 in 2011). Few teams in baseball have two sluggers in their lineup that are as important as the two men I just mentioned. In addition to that, they have a rotation that features Reigning AL Cy Young Winner Justin Verlander (0.92 WHIP in 2011) and a bullpen that features a BO$$ in Jose Valverde. This division is locked up for them from minute one.
2) Kansas City Royals: The Royals have an incredible future ahead with a GM like Dayton Moore. He has completely turned this team from a losing joke to a team with a future. You can see that future in Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. Unfortunately, I their pitching issues will hurt them this year. However, there is finally a future in Kansas City.
3) Cleveland Indians: I think that the Indians have many issues with player health, particularly Grady Sizemore. However, they are starting to build something worth watching. I think that Carlos Santana will a valuable contributor to the Indians for years to come and I believe he will progress. I think Jimenez could have a bounce back season (he had an FIP of 3.72 last year). Depending on factors, they could be a contender or they could be a cellar dweller again.
4) Chicago White Sox: I think losing Burhele is bad and having no offense to speak of is even worse. The White Sox are not even close to contention this year.
5) Minnesota Twins: The team roster has had various health issues and they have and will continue to have issues when it comes to on field performance.
WEST
1) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: They have a rotation anchored by Wilson (3.28 FIP in ’11), Haren (3.02 FIP last year) and Weaver (3.24 in 2011). Few rotations are as powerful as the Angels are. Oh, they have perhaps the best hitter in baseball in the form of Albert Pujols. This year, the Angels will likely win the AL West and be a dominant force in baseball all year long.
2) Texas Rangers: I think the lineup (Hamilton went .301/.362/.541) will work perfectly but the pitching took a blow with the loss of Wilson. I see this team competing for AL Wildcard with that lineup.
3) Seattle Mariners: The Mariners totally improved their offense by signing Jesus Montero, who is one of the best young hitters in baseball. In addition to that, they still have King Feliz, who had a 3.17 FIP when court was in session last year. However, they still have much crap to clean up. However, it appears the Mariners are finally starting to get their heads out of their *****.
4) Oakland Athletics: No offense, No Gio, no rotation, and a big ballpark will kill this team in 2012. They will likely be getting one of the top picks in the draft in the near future.
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World Series Predictions and Award Winner Projections
World Series Matchup: Yankees vs. Phillies
World Series Winner: Yankees
NL MVP: Joey Votto
AL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Rookie of the Year: Julio Teheran
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Moore
NL Manager of the Year: Ozzie Guillien
AL Manager of the Year: Bobby Valentine
NL Batting Title: Joey Votto
AL Batting Title: Adrian Gonzalez
National League
EAST
1) Philadelphia Phillies: This will be my NL East Division Winners. I think they will weather the storm of losing Howard and Utley because of that great rotation with Halladay, Hamels, Lee, and Worley. I think having Pence in that lineup and his prime for a full year is also a good thing. Signing Jonathon Papelbon, who had a 2.94 ERA and 0.93 WHIP last year is brilliant and make that bullpen way better.
2) Atlanta Braves: I love their pitching. I think that Teheran will likely win Rookie of the Year for the National League. He has an incredible fastball and incredible secondary pitches. He will be an ace in this league for years to come. However, my concerns are with the offense. I think the Braves will need Freeman and Heyward to be at the top of their games to succeed and win the NL East.
3) Miami Marlins: The Marlins got much better this offseason. They signed a dynamic shortstop in Jose Reyes and with him, Stanton, and Ramirez, they will have a dynamic offense. I think getting back Josh Johnson to anchor the rotation is great and getting Bell in that pen will make them better late in games. I would not be surprised if they are a wild-card contender this year.
4) Washington Nationals: They will get a great season from Strasburg and this team has a bright future ahead with Harper on the horizon. However, I am not too impressed with the lineup and think they will struggle this year.
5) New York Mets: The offense will likely be better with a smaller ballpark. I see bounce back years for Wright and Bay as well as a breakout year from Davis. However, I can see this Mets pitching staff have problems with the new dimensions and it will lead to problems in the end. At least the team can now focus on rising from the ashes after the Picard Settlement.
CENTRAL
1) Cincinnati Reds: I think they will win the NL Central this year. They play in a park that helps their offense and they are constantly amongst the best scoring teams in baseball. Joey Votto is a beast and is perhaps the best hitter in the National League. He can hit for average, get on base, and hit for power, as evidence by his .309/.416/.531 line last year. I think adding Latos to that rotation is incredible. He is amongst the best young pitchers in baseball. For those worried about his transition to the smaller Great American Ballpark, his road FIP last year was 3.30, which is just five points higher than his PETCO FIP last year (according to Baseball Prospectus). This kid can pitch in the Grand Canyon and in a bandbox. I can see this team winning the NL Central with a Pujols-free St. Louis and Fielder-free Milwaukee.
2) St. Louis Cardinals: Although they lost Pujols, do not expect the Cardinals to become like the Cavaliers after they lost Lebron. This team has a good lineup and is playing a ballpark that can help them. It also helps that they are getting back Wainwright, who had an FIP of 2.88 in 2010 and will be back and healthy this year. Holliday had a .296/.388/.525 line last year and I think he will continue to be amongst the best left fielders in baseball. I think having Beltran in that lineup will make that team very good as well. I think that they could be a wild card team again this year and if some other factors break in their favor, they could win the Central.
3) Milwaukee Brewers: I think losing Fielder is big but miraculously for them they avoided losing Braun for 50 games due to a positive PED test that was rejected. I think they will have a good rotation as evidence by the fact that they were third in quality starts last year (behind the Phillies and Giants, according to Baseball Prospectus). Braun has shown before that he is amongst the best hitters in the sport (.332/.397/.597 last year) and I believe he will prove it again this season in spite of the cloud of suspicion that will likely surround him for the remainder of his career. I think the Brewers are in the mix for both the wildcard and the NL Central title.
4) Chicago Cubs: I think the Cubs have a future in this league now that they good executive in Theo Epstein in that front office. I believe in Castro, who is perhaps the best hitter on that team and had a .341 BABIP last year. I think he has a ton of potential and could potentially be a star in this sport. Although the Cubs may not have that much talent now, they have a crap load of upside with a smarter Executive in that front office.
5) Pittsburgh Pirates: Unfortunately, the Pirates will have their 20th losing season, but I think they are starting to get out of the gutter. I think that Andrew McCutchen is a potential star and he is someone the Pirates could build around. I think this team needs more talent at the Major League and Minor League level before I am convinced.
6) Houston Astros: So, you were the worst team in baseball last year and will likely be their again and will likely be killed by Pujols again when they move to the AL West next year. What you look forward to? Well, they can look forward to having a new front office that is analytically driven. New GM Jeff Luhnow has had had a history of acquiring major league talent, as he proved in St. Louis when he drafted 24 future major leaguers in first three years as scouting director (according to Baseball Prospectus). In that same time, the Astros had drafted only four future major leaguers, which was the worst in baseball. If you are an Astros fan, you can also look forward to having the first pick in this year's draft and early first round picks in the draft for the next few years. These next few drafts could very well shape the future of the team and I believe Luhnow will totally be successful in drafting the best talent.
WEST
1) Arizona Diamondbacks: The NL West is perhaps the toughest division to decipher. I think the division winner in 2012 will once again be Arizona. I think the Diamondbacks have some very good pitchers like Kennedy, who had a WHIP of 1.09 and a FIP of 3.19 last year. I also think that playing in that bandbox of a park will totally help their hitters as well.
2) San Francisco Giants: I will place them second because of that rotation and bullpen. Cain, Lincecum and Bumgarner all had good FIPs last year and the highest of the three was 3.21, which just shows you how good they are. Of course, people will continue to Fear the Beard but will likely not fear the offense, which ranked 29th in runs scored per game last year. However, you may see an improvement with the return of Posey. However, the lineup has too many holes to be competitive in my opinion.
3) Los Angeles Dodgers: Kershaw is the best pitcher on that team by far as evidence by his NL CY Young Title Last Year and his insane FIP of 2.44 in the aforementioned season. However, the Dodgers do not have that much else in their rotation and I think that will be a problem. At least you can look forward to Kemp and Eithier having good years, but I think the lineup does not have much else to look at. However, the recent change in ownership should easily lead to a quick turn around for this team.
4) Colorado Rockies: I think Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki will contribute as they usually do and have solid season. However, the Rockies have a terrible pitching staff and I think it will kill them this season. On the bright side, I think that Poneranz could be a very good pitcher and may have a breakout season if things go well.
5) San Diego Padres: Though the Padres have some young players who have potential, they still are weak on offense and I expect that trend to continue in 2012. The loss of Latos, Bell and Adams will also lead this team further down into the cellar this year.
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American League
EAST
1) New York Yankees: I believe that the Yankees will be my World Series favorite for the year. Granderson and Cano are the two offensive leaders of this team and they both have great OPS percentages. I also think that a rotation with Sabathia (2.91 FIP last year) and Pineda (173 Ks last year) will be dominant and hard to beat. Of course, with the Great Mariano Rivera and David Robertson, that bullpen is incredible. Obviously, playing in Yankee Stadium will give that offense a huge boost and I believe all of those factors will give the Bombers their 28th World Series Championship and will force Girardi to change his number to 29.
2) Boston Red Sox: They are another team that I believe will likely win the World Series. That lineup with Gonzalez (.338/.410/.548 in 2011), Pedroia (.307/.387/.474 in 2011) Ortiz (.309/.398/.554 in 2011) and Ellsbury (.321/.376/.552 in 2011) is hard to beat. I think that Beckett will have a bounce back year and anchor the rotation. I think that Valentine is going to be a good manager for that team and carry them to victory this season.
3) Tampa Bay Rays: Although they may not have the lineup of the Yankees, they have a rotation that is very comparable to them, if not, better than them. Price was solid last year (WHIP of 1.14) and I can see Matt Moore taking the ball and run with it this year. He will be an ace on that team for years to come and I see him as the unquestionable favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year honors.
4) Toronto Blue Jays: I see another solid year from Bautista (1.055 OPS last year) but I think the lineup and rotation is just short of the Yankees and Red Sox. However, I really believe that they have some great minds in that Blue Jays front office that can really make a difference.
5) Baltimore Orioles: I am not a fan of that lineup with that windmill Reynolds (196 Ks last year) in it. However, I am even less of a fan of their piss poor rotation and pitching staff. They gave up a major league worst 5.31 runs a game last year and it certainly does not help your cause when you are in a division with sluggers in New York, Boston, Tampa, and in Toronto.
CENTRAL
`1) Detroit Tigers: If the Tigers do not win the Central, it will be one the biggest shocker in decades. They are in what will likely be one of the easiest divisions to play in. They have a lineup that features Miguel Cabrera (.344/.415/.566 in 2011) and Prince Fielder (.299/.415/.566 in 2011). Few teams in baseball have two sluggers in their lineup that are as important as the two men I just mentioned. In addition to that, they have a rotation that features Reigning AL Cy Young Winner Justin Verlander (0.92 WHIP in 2011) and a bullpen that features a BO$$ in Jose Valverde. This division is locked up for them from minute one.
2) Kansas City Royals: The Royals have an incredible future ahead with a GM like Dayton Moore. He has completely turned this team from a losing joke to a team with a future. You can see that future in Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. Unfortunately, I their pitching issues will hurt them this year. However, there is finally a future in Kansas City.
3) Cleveland Indians: I think that the Indians have many issues with player health, particularly Grady Sizemore. However, they are starting to build something worth watching. I think that Carlos Santana will a valuable contributor to the Indians for years to come and I believe he will progress. I think Jimenez could have a bounce back season (he had an FIP of 3.72 last year). Depending on factors, they could be a contender or they could be a cellar dweller again.
4) Chicago White Sox: I think losing Burhele is bad and having no offense to speak of is even worse. The White Sox are not even close to contention this year.
5) Minnesota Twins: The team roster has had various health issues and they have and will continue to have issues when it comes to on field performance.
WEST
1) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: They have a rotation anchored by Wilson (3.28 FIP in ’11), Haren (3.02 FIP last year) and Weaver (3.24 in 2011). Few rotations are as powerful as the Angels are. Oh, they have perhaps the best hitter in baseball in the form of Albert Pujols. This year, the Angels will likely win the AL West and be a dominant force in baseball all year long.
2) Texas Rangers: I think the lineup (Hamilton went .301/.362/.541) will work perfectly but the pitching took a blow with the loss of Wilson. I see this team competing for AL Wildcard with that lineup.
3) Seattle Mariners: The Mariners totally improved their offense by signing Jesus Montero, who is one of the best young hitters in baseball. In addition to that, they still have King Feliz, who had a 3.17 FIP when court was in session last year. However, they still have much crap to clean up. However, it appears the Mariners are finally starting to get their heads out of their *****.
4) Oakland Athletics: No offense, No Gio, no rotation, and a big ballpark will kill this team in 2012. They will likely be getting one of the top picks in the draft in the near future.
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World Series Predictions and Award Winner Projections
World Series Matchup: Yankees vs. Phillies
World Series Winner: Yankees
NL MVP: Joey Votto
AL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Rookie of the Year: Julio Teheran
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Moore
NL Manager of the Year: Ozzie Guillien
AL Manager of the Year: Bobby Valentine
NL Batting Title: Joey Votto
AL Batting Title: Adrian Gonzalez
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