Will we ever see a 60+ homerun season done by a modern player who isn't a juicer?

[fenrir]

Obviously the players who have done so are known juicers, but I'm just curious if anyone thinks a modern player can do it without the juice.

For an era that everyone claims is incredibly easy to hit homeruns, I've always found it interesting how many of the top homeruns seasons were done by juicers. Including many 50+ homerun seasons too. In fact, Howard's 58 in 2006 is the the highest total done by a modern player who hasn't been linked to steroids. After that you have Griffey who hit 56 twice. If it really is that easy to be a homerun hitter in today's age, why hasn't one player not linked to roids been able to smash 60 or more homeruns?

[Imgran]

If we did, would we know?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I've always though Prince Fielder is the most likely current player to hit 60 HRs.

[Zito75]

I've always though Prince Fielder is the most likely current player to hit 60 HRs.

I like his chances too - Bautista might also have a shot.

[ipitch]

If it really is that easy to be a homerun hitter in today's age, why hasn't one player not linked to roids been able to smash 60 or more homeruns?

Not including the steroid era, the best era for HRs was from 1955-1962, but it's virtually tied with 2010-2011 as far as HRs per game. In that 8-year period (1955-1962), only one player hit 60+ HRs. Since the steroid era is barely over, it shouldn't be surprising that no one has hit 60+ HRs recently.

[fenrir]

Not including the steroid era, the best era for HRs was from 1955-1962, but it's virtually tied with 2010-2011 as far as HRs per game. In that 8-year period (1955-1962), only one player hit 60+ HRs. Since the steroid era is barely over, it shouldn't be surprising that no one has hit 60+ HRs recently.

I've heard many people claim that this era has been the easiest for homerun hitters. Maybe it is, but if that were the case, why have all the top homeruns seasons been done by juicers? Is being a natural power hitter really easier now than it was years ago? I think it's very possible we may never see a 60+ homerun season again, unless in the future they come out with legal supplements that replicate the benefits of steroids.

[dominik]

Obviously the players who have done so are known juicers, but I'm just curious if anyone thinks a modern player can do it without the juice.

For an era that everyone claims is incredibly easy to hit homeruns, I've always found it interesting how many of the top homeruns seasons were done by juicers. Including many 50+ homerun seasons too. In fact, Howard's 58 in 2006 is the the highest total done by a modern player who hasn't been linked to steroids. After that you have Griffey who hit 56 twice. If it really is that easy to be a homerun hitter in today's age, why hasn't one player not linked to roids been able to smash 60 or more homeruns?

The problem is that pitchers are incredibly good. the MLB does everything to make it easy for hitters (small strikezone, small parks, not allowing pitchers to throw inside) but pitchers have adapted by developing a plethora of pitches including new ones like the cutter. pitchers are just better than ever (maybe not in the top since there is currently no pedro or maddux but the field of good pitchers got much larger-even the 3 and 4 guys in these days throw 93 with a couple of off speed pitches).

I think baseball history is a history of pitchers getting constantly better with the MLB every once in a while doing a rule change to help the batters back on track (mound from 50 to 60, live ball, smaller parks, smaller zone...).

[SHOELESSJOE3]

The problem is that pitchers are incredibly good. the MLB does everything to make it easy for hitters (small strikezone, small parks, not allowing pitchers to throw inside) but pitchers have adapted by developing a plethora of pitches including new ones like the cutter. pitchers are just better than ever (maybe not in the top since there is currently no pedro or maddux but the field of good pitchers got much larger-even the 3 and 4 guys in these days throw 93 with a couple of off speed pitches).

I think baseball history is a history of pitchers getting constantly better with the MLB every once in a while doing a rule change to help the batters back on track (mound from 50 to 60, live ball, smaller parks, smaller zone...).

I think other then the possibilty that the testing and penalty possibly scaring some previous users to quit using in recent years, I agree with your point, pitching has caught up with hitting. No way to prove that scaring some into stop using plays a part.

I've said this before, not much feedback on it , what appears to me the increase in the number change ups in recent years and some darn good young pitchers with great change ups. The fact that some of these guys have lots of speed to go along with the change up. I think before the present crop of young pitchers, those pitchers that came before thought they had to blow away hitters with speed.

Back to Warren Spahn who said it all, word to this effect............Hitting is timing, pitching is upsetting timing, so simple, makes so much sense. You don't always have to throw 90+ MPH to get a hitter out.
Also, many young pitchers in the game with a good assortment of other pitches.

[fenrir]

The problem is that pitchers are incredibly good. the MLB does everything to make it easy for hitters (small strikezone, small parks, not allowing pitchers to throw inside) but pitchers have adapted by developing a plethora of pitches including new ones like the cutter. pitchers are just better than ever (maybe not in the top since there is currently no pedro or maddux but the field of good pitchers got much larger-even the 3 and 4 guys in these days throw 93 with a couple of off speed pitches).

I think baseball history is a history of pitchers getting constantly better with the MLB every once in a while doing a rule change to help the batters back on track (mound from 50 to 60, live ball, smaller parks, smaller zone...).

I agree with everything you say, and I guess the main point I was trying to get make is that I don't think it's easier to hit a lot of homeruns today then it was years ago. If it was, then wouldn't at least one player not linked to steroids have at least hit 60 or more homeruns? Hell, it seems like many 50+ homeruns guys were juicers too. Only Thome, Griffey, Howard, Prince Fielder, and Bautista haven't been linked to the juice

[doctor_gogol]

I'm not sure about Bautista. He was crushing balls the 1st half of last season. Then post all star, it seemed as if pitchers found a weakness and his productivity dropped.

If Prince Fielder is going to do it, this may be the year he'll do it. Depends if the put him before or after Cabrera in the line up

[GiambiJuice]

Nobody's hitting 60+ at Comerica Park. Cabrera hasn't even reached 40 yet in four seasons as a tiger. That is a tough ballpark to hit homeruns. I'd be surprised if Fielder hits more than 44 or so in any of his 9 seasons as Tiger. Just look at his last two seasons in Milwaukee - he played at least 161 games in each season and hit only 38 and 32 home runs respectively.

[PlanetZoltan]

Just look at his last two seasons in Milwaukee - he played at least 161 games in each season and hit only 38 and 32 home runs respectively.

And Miller Park is favorable to hitters isnt it? Lefties especially?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Nobody's hitting 60+ at Comerica Park. Cabrera hasn't even reached 40 yet in four seasons as a tiger. That is a tough ballpark to hit homeruns. I'd be surprised if Fielder hits more than 44 or so in any of his 9 seasons as Tiger. Just look at his last two seasons in Milwaukee - he played at least 161 games in each season and hit only 38 and 32 home runs respectively.

Excellent points, GiambiJuice.

[UnderPressure]

Ryan Howard almost did it with 58. It's safe to say that a player can only do it if he plays home games in a bandbox.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Ryan Howard almost did it with 58. It's safe to say that a player can only do it if he plays home games in a bandbox.

When Howard hit 58 HRs in 2006 he had 29 HRs at home and 29 HRs on the road. Howard hit slightly better on the road as well.

Home: .309/.422/.656
Road: .318/.427/.662