Arod and the home run record

[fenrir]

Just curious what everyone's thoughts on this are. Whether you consider Aaron or Bonds the home run king, the chances are if he passes Aaron, he will want to pass Bonds as well. Do you think he can, or will he fall short?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

A-Rod will fall well short of 762 HRs. A-Rod's power has waned considerely since 2007.

Slugging %
2007: .645
2008: .573
2009: .532
2010: .506
2011: .461
2012: .431

A-Rod only has 5 home runs so far. Not a good sign. I doubt A-Rod wil even pass Babe Ruth's 714 home runs.

[redban]

A-Rod will fall well short of 762 HRs. A-Rod's power has waned considerely since 2007.

Slugging %
2007: .645
2008: .573
2009: .532
2010: .506
2011: .461
2012: .431

A-Rod only has 5 home runs so far. Not a good sign. I doubt A-Rod wil even pass Babe Ruth's 714 home runs.

I disagree.

He's signed through 2017 (6 more seasons) and he has 634 HR.

To reach Bonds, he needs 128 HR.

128/6 = 21.333333

He only has to average 22 homeruns per season to reach Bonds. You don't think he can do that?

[fenrir]

I think Arod will break it because he has nothing to lose. His steroid use is already publicly known, and the record is currently held by a steroid user, so why not break it? I think he will play until he breaks it.

[doctor_gogol]

I disagree.

He's signed through 2017 (6 more seasons) and he has 634 HR.

To reach Bonds, he needs 128 HR.

128/6 = 21.333333

He only has to average 22 homeruns per season to reach Bonds. You don't think he can do that?

That is a best case scenario. He's going to diminish over the next 6 years. He may or may not be able to keep up that pace.

[Joltin' Joe]

Certainly not the sure thing it looked like at one time but what will help him is the contract. With the NYY paying such exorbidant sums of money, they are much more likely to keep him regularly in the lineup even when he has shrank to a shadow of his former self.

[Cubsfan97]

How many people averaged 21 home runs a year between 36-41? I dont see him having a 35+ HR year again, so he'll actually have to get close to that 21 every year. One interesting thing I noticed, if he sticks around his entire contract, he will most likely be the third person, along with Ty Cobb and Rusty Staub to hit a HR as a teenager and a 40 year old.

[ol' aches and pains]

It makes no difference to me if A-Rod or Barry Bonds has more home runs, Hank Aaron is the home run champion until somebody clean beats him.

[Seattle1]

I think Pay-Roid will pass the "record" set by Bonds. If he starts to slow down all he needs to do is take some more steroids in order to hit some more homers.

:twocents:

[GiambiJuice]

One interesting thing I noticed, if he sticks around his entire contract, he will most likely be the third person, along with Ty Cobb and Rusty Staub to hit a HR as a teenager and a 40 year old.

Gary Sheffield did it too.

[ipitch]

One interesting thing I noticed, if he sticks around his entire contract, he will most likely be the third person, along with Ty Cobb and Rusty Staub to hit a HR as a teenager and a 40 year old.

Gary Sheffield also did that.

[redban]

How many people averaged 21 home runs a year between 36-41? I dont see him having a 35+ HR year again, so he'll actually have to get close to that 21 every year. One interesting thing I noticed, if he sticks around his entire contract, he will most likely be the third person, along with Ty Cobb and Rusty Staub to hit a HR as a teenager and a 40 year old.

Hank Aaron averaged 32 HR and Ted Williams averaged 26 HR.. and I don't think either of them had the DH, which Rodriguez will have.

Even if he doesn't get it by the end of contract, he still has hope..

Like let's say after 2017 he's still a bit short, like at 740 or something. You don't think the Yankees or some other team will sign him and give him a shot at breaking the record? That's money for them.

[BigRon]

A-Rod will fall well short of 762 HRs. A-Rod's power has waned considerely since 2007.

Slugging %
2007: .645
2008: .573
2009: .532
2010: .506
2011: .461
2012: .431

A-Rod only has 5 home runs so far. Not a good sign. I doubt A-Rod wil even pass Babe Ruth's 714 home runs.

Isolated Power (IP) is an even better indicator:
2007- .333 Near-Ruthian
2008- .271 Good enough to lead the league some years
2009- .246 Lower, but still strong
2010- .236 Slipping, but still strong
2011- .185 A power hitter can't live here for long
2012- .135 This is around league average- if this keeps up, it's over

As I've mentioned before, 2012 is a HUGE year for Rodriguez. If he doesn't hit over 30 homers he has almost no chance to catch Bonds- or Aaron. He'll be 37 in July.

[GiambiJuice]

I really hope he breaks the record. I would consider his record just as legit as Aaron's. He only used PEDs for a couple years in Texas and he would've hit 50 homers in the bandbox anyway.

[fenrir]

I really hope he breaks the record. I would consider his record just as legit as Aaron's. He only used PEDs for a couple years in Texas and he would've hit 50 homers in the bandbox anyway.

That's if you take his word at face value, which I don't since he has lied in the past.