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Arod and the home run record

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  • Arod and the home run record

    Just curious what everyone's thoughts on this are. Whether you consider Aaron or Bonds the home run king, the chances are if he passes Aaron, he will want to pass Bonds as well. Do you think he can, or will he fall short?
    44
    He will pass Aaron/Bonds
    22.73%
    10
    He will fall short
    77.27%
    34

  • #2
    A-Rod will fall well short of 762 HRs. A-Rod's power has waned considerely since 2007.

    Slugging %
    2007: .645
    2008: .573
    2009: .532
    2010: .506
    2011: .461
    2012: .431

    A-Rod only has 5 home runs so far. Not a good sign. I doubt A-Rod wil even pass Babe Ruth's 714 home runs.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
      A-Rod will fall well short of 762 HRs. A-Rod's power has waned considerely since 2007.

      Slugging %
      2007: .645
      2008: .573
      2009: .532
      2010: .506
      2011: .461
      2012: .431

      A-Rod only has 5 home runs so far. Not a good sign. I doubt A-Rod wil even pass Babe Ruth's 714 home runs.
      I disagree.

      He's signed through 2017 (6 more seasons) and he has 634 HR.

      To reach Bonds, he needs 128 HR.

      128/6 = 21.333333

      He only has to average 22 homeruns per season to reach Bonds. You don't think he can do that?

      Comment


      • #4
        I think Arod will break it because he has nothing to lose. His steroid use is already publicly known, and the record is currently held by a steroid user, so why not break it? I think he will play until he breaks it.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by redban View Post
          I disagree.

          He's signed through 2017 (6 more seasons) and he has 634 HR.

          To reach Bonds, he needs 128 HR.

          128/6 = 21.333333

          He only has to average 22 homeruns per season to reach Bonds. You don't think he can do that?
          That is a best case scenario. He's going to diminish over the next 6 years. He may or may not be able to keep up that pace.
          Vintage Photos of Detroit Ballparks:
          http://www.flickr.com/photos/doctor_gogol/sets/

          http://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/sets/

          Comment


          • #6
            Certainly not the sure thing it looked like at one time but what will help him is the contract. With the NYY paying such exorbidant sums of money, they are much more likely to keep him regularly in the lineup even when he has shrank to a shadow of his former self.

            Comment


            • #7
              How many people averaged 21 home runs a year between 36-41? I dont see him having a 35+ HR year again, so he'll actually have to get close to that 21 every year. One interesting thing I noticed, if he sticks around his entire contract, he will most likely be the third person, along with Ty Cobb and Rusty Staub to hit a HR as a teenager and a 40 year old.
              "I don't like to sound egotistical, but every time I stepped up to the plate with a bat in my hands, I couldn't help but feel sorry for the pitcher."
              -Rogers Hornsby-

              "People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
              -Rogers Hornsby-

              Just a note to all the active members of BBF, I consider all of you the smartest baseball people I have ever communicated with and love everyday I am on here. Thank you all!

              Comment


              • #8
                It makes no difference to me if A-Rod or Barry Bonds has more home runs, Hank Aaron is the home run champion until somebody clean beats him.
                They call me Mr. Baseball. Not because of my love for the game; because of all the stitches in my head.

                Comment


                • #9
                  I think Pay-Roid will pass the "record" set by Bonds. If he starts to slow down all he needs to do is take some more steroids in order to hit some more homers.

                  :twocents:

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Cubsfan97 View Post
                    One interesting thing I noticed, if he sticks around his entire contract, he will most likely be the third person, along with Ty Cobb and Rusty Staub to hit a HR as a teenager and a 40 year old.
                    Gary Sheffield did it too.
                    My top 10 players:

                    1. Babe Ruth
                    2. Barry Bonds
                    3. Ty Cobb
                    4. Ted Williams
                    5. Willie Mays
                    6. Alex Rodriguez
                    7. Hank Aaron
                    8. Honus Wagner
                    9. Lou Gehrig
                    10. Mickey Mantle

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Cubsfan97 View Post
                      One interesting thing I noticed, if he sticks around his entire contract, he will most likely be the third person, along with Ty Cobb and Rusty Staub to hit a HR as a teenager and a 40 year old.
                      Gary Sheffield also did that.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Cubsfan97 View Post
                        How many people averaged 21 home runs a year between 36-41? I dont see him having a 35+ HR year again, so he'll actually have to get close to that 21 every year. One interesting thing I noticed, if he sticks around his entire contract, he will most likely be the third person, along with Ty Cobb and Rusty Staub to hit a HR as a teenager and a 40 year old.
                        Hank Aaron averaged 32 HR and Ted Williams averaged 26 HR.. and I don't think either of them had the DH, which Rodriguez will have.

                        Even if he doesn't get it by the end of contract, he still has hope..

                        Like let's say after 2017 he's still a bit short, like at 740 or something. You don't think the Yankees or some other team will sign him and give him a shot at breaking the record? That's money for them.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                          A-Rod will fall well short of 762 HRs. A-Rod's power has waned considerely since 2007.

                          Slugging %
                          2007: .645
                          2008: .573
                          2009: .532
                          2010: .506
                          2011: .461
                          2012: .431

                          A-Rod only has 5 home runs so far. Not a good sign. I doubt A-Rod wil even pass Babe Ruth's 714 home runs.
                          Isolated Power (IP) is an even better indicator:
                          2007- .333 Near-Ruthian
                          2008- .271 Good enough to lead the league some years
                          2009- .246 Lower, but still strong
                          2010- .236 Slipping, but still strong
                          2011- .185 A power hitter can't live here for long
                          2012- .135 This is around league average- if this keeps up, it's over

                          As I've mentioned before, 2012 is a HUGE year for Rodriguez. If he doesn't hit over 30 homers he has almost no chance to catch Bonds- or Aaron. He'll be 37 in July.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I really hope he breaks the record. I would consider his record just as legit as Aaron's. He only used PEDs for a couple years in Texas and he would've hit 50 homers in the bandbox anyway.
                            My top 10 players:

                            1. Babe Ruth
                            2. Barry Bonds
                            3. Ty Cobb
                            4. Ted Williams
                            5. Willie Mays
                            6. Alex Rodriguez
                            7. Hank Aaron
                            8. Honus Wagner
                            9. Lou Gehrig
                            10. Mickey Mantle

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
                              I really hope he breaks the record. I would consider his record just as legit as Aaron's. He only used PEDs for a couple years in Texas and he would've hit 50 homers in the bandbox anyway.
                              That's if you take his word at face value, which I don't since he has lied in the past.

                              Comment

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