Joey Votto - On a hall of fame pace?

[fenrir]

Perhaps it's a bit too early to be speculating, but since he's arguably been the best player in baseball since 2009, and this year is thus far having a historic season, I think it's safe to say that barring any serious injuries or gambling/steroid scandals, Votto is on his way to a HOF career. He already has an MVP award under his belt, and who knows, he may pick up another this year. He's 28 and in his prime right now, so it's likely we are seeing the best of him right now, and it may last this way for a significant period of time.

What are your thoughts on this?

[GiambiJuice]

He got kind of a late start and he's not going to have big "power" numbers - he's more of a doubles machine than a pure home run hitter - so I think it's unlikely. However, if he keeps OPSing 1.100 for the next several years, that would be pretty much unmatched in baseball history by players not named Ruth, Williams, Bonds and Hornsby.

He also won't finish with a lot of hits because his plate discipline is so good. Hopefully in 20 years from now the voters will know which stats are important and which aren't. Like if he has a career line of .300/.400/.500 over 9,000 PA he should be a lock. Another MVP award or two would certainly help his chances too.

I'd give him a 5-10% chance at this point.

[ian2813]

He's got a definite shot at becoming the best first baseman in Reds history.

[FrenchyLefebvre]

This is incredible --

• Votto has not popped up to the infield all season. In fact, he has popped out to the infield only three times in 2,138 plate appearances over the past four seasons.
• The average NL hitter bats .198 when he is behind in the count. Votto hits .300 when he is behind in the count.
• Votto has pulled a ball foul into the stands only once in his entire major league career. Once.
"Sure, I remember it," he said. "It was my rookie year. It wasn't that deep -- and maybe 20, 30 feet foul. I haven't hit a long home run foul in my whole career."

Source: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz1xaaurKEb

[ol' aches and pains]

If he keeps doing what he's doing, he'll get there.

[dominik]

I think he is on HOF pace. very good hitter who can do it all. he might be penalized for not being an elite power hitter though. he is about a 35 HR guy which would be a 30 HR guy in a normal sized park.

but other than that he is a HOF hitter although he had a little late start (only 53 HRs after age 25).

[dgarza]

He is on HOF pace. He's not going to be one of the elite 1B, relatively late start, but I think he's got a good chance to make the Hall some day some how....

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that at end of 2012, he'll have a career WAR of 27.0 (he's at 24.4 at the moment). At the end of the season BB-Ref is still going to categorize him as age 28, so I'm sticking with that.
1B through age 28, 27.0 WAR:

                                                 
Rk            Player WAR/pos From   To   Age    G
1        Jimmie Foxx    65.5 1925 1936 17-28 1411
2      Albert Pujols    61.7 2001 2008 21-28 1239
3         Lou Gehrig    55.4 1923 1931 20-28 1076
4       Frank Thomas    38.2 1990 1996 22-28  930
5      George Sisler    38.1 1915 1921 22-28  905
6        Johnny Mize    37.4 1936 1941 23-28  853
7       Eddie Murray    37.3 1977 1984 21-28 1206
8     Hank Greenberg    35.9 1930 1939 19-28  882
9       Jeff Bagwell    34.2 1991 1996 23-28  846
10        Will Clark    32.6 1986 1992 22-28 1028
11     Dan Brouthers    32.4 1879 1886 21-28  602
12     Don Mattingly    32.2 1982 1989 21-28 1015
13   Keith Hernandez    31.7 1974 1982 20-28 1110
14      Roger Connor    31.3 1880 1886 22-28  691
15    Orlando Cepeda    30.0 1958 1966 20-28 1237
16      Jake Beckley    29.9 1888 1896 20-28 1097
17     Mark Teixeira    29.9 2003 2008 23-28  904
18        Hal Trosky    27.8 1933 1941 20-28 1124
19       Todd Helton    27.4 1997 2002 23-28  821
20       Ed Konetchy    27.3 1907 1914 21-28 1136
29        Joey Votto    24.4 2007 2012 23-28  676

10 of the 20 are in the Hall. I would call Votto at a 50% chance of making the Hall someday. (May have to be on the ballot several years, but somehow would make it.)

[PVNICK]

Good company but he would be at the bottom of the list with non- or lower ranked HOFers. I'd like to see the 25-30 WAR group. Really though the question is, has he peaked. If he keeps or raises this level for three to five years he may jump up in class to the middle of the pack HOF 1B rather than the lower end or higher end non-HOFers.

[Dude Paskert]

Kinda crazy how close Brouthers and Connor are on that list in basically every column.
I wonder if they were really twin brouthers?

[dgarza]

If he keeps or raises this level for three to five years he may jump up in class to the middle of the pack HOF 1B rather than the lower end or higher end non-HOFers.

This is what McCovey basically did...

[J W]

Interesting note: Votto's most similar batter by a wide margin so far is Josh Hamilton (941), the other MVP two years ago, who also has six seasons under his belt but got an even later start in the majors.

[Cap78]

It may be hard for him to get in if guys named McGuire, palmero and bagwell don't, steroids or not

[GiambiJuice]

Interesting note: Votto's most similar batter by a wide margin so far is Josh Hamilton (941), the other MVP two years ago, who also has six seasons under his belt but got an even later start in the majors.

I'll never understand these comparisons. Votto and Hamilton are not similar at all as hitters.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I'll never understand these comparisons. Votto and Hamilton are not similar at all as hitters.

Similarity Scores do not take into account different leagues. It just compares stats between two players. Their career productions are extremely close. The only major difference is in walks and OBP.

[B]Player     G   PA   AB   R   H	2B  3B  HR RBI	SB  CS  BB  SO  BA   OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+  TB[/B]
Votto     676 2843 2428 407 768	179  9 129 439	40  19 383 526 .316 .411 .557 .968 155  1352	
Hamilton  646 2768 2485 410 773	156 17 140 486  42  11 228 510 .311 .369 .557 .926 139  1383

[brett]

I think he is on HOF pace. very good hitter who can do it all. he might be penalized for not being an elite power hitter though. he is about a 35 HR guy which would be a 30 HR guy in a normal sized park.

but other than that he is a HOF hitter although he had a little late start (only 53 HRs after age 25).

On pace for 100 extra base hits this year, 70 doubles and 30 home runs. At his career pace, by the end of age 35 season he would have 500 doubles and 370 home runs. I'd give a decent shot at 600 and 450 with about 2500 hits and 1500 RBI.
Also if he wins a second MVP this year I'd say he's probably "on pace"