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Which players will get 100 Career WAR next?

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  • Which players will get 100 Career WAR next?

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...t_career.shtml

    24 pitchers have won 300 games. 28 players have hit 3000 hits. 25 players have hit 500 homeruns.

    But only 19 players in MLB history have reached 100 WAR.

    Since 1980, only 4 players have done it. (And 2 of those 4 are PED-users in A-Rod and Bonds; Schmidt and Henderson are the other 2)

    Cal Ripken, as good as he was and for so long, couldn't even do it - finished at 90.9.

    Who do you feel will reach 100 WAR?

    Pujols should be a lock. He's already at 85.5, and he has 10 seasons left.

    After him - who? Derek Jeter is at 68, so he would need 4 MVP seasons (8.0 WAR). That's not happening.

    Miguel Cabrera and David Wright are both under 40.0, and both are at half-way point in their careers. Unless their have monster seasons in their mid-30s, they're not getting it.

    Honestly, after Pujols we may not see 100 WAR for some time.
    Last edited by redban; 06-26-2012, 08:57 AM.

  • #2
    Yeah thats a good question. Pujols is the only one now. I think guys like Trout and Harper may be the next best candidates.
    "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

    "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

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    • #3
      Originally posted by redban View Post
      http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...t_career.shtml

      24 pitchers have won 300 games. 28 players have hit 3000 hits. 25 players have hit 500 homeruns.

      But only 19 players in MLB history have reached 100 WAR.

      Since 1980, only 4 players have done it. (And 2 of those 4 are PED-users in A-Rod and Bonds; Schmidt and Henderson are the other 2)

      Cal Ripken, as good as he was and for so long, couldn't even do it - finished at 90.9.

      Who do you feel will reach 100 WAR?

      Pujols should be a lock. He's already at 85.5, and he has 10 seasons left.

      After him - who? Derek Jeter is at 68, so he would need 4 MVP seasons (8.0 WAR). That's not happening.

      Miguel Cabrera and David Wright are both under 40.0, and both are at half-way point in their careers. Unless their have monster seasons in their mid-30s, they're not getting it.

      Honestly, after Pujols we may not see 100 WAR for some time.
      The interesting thing is from this generation of players and pitchers, only three have surpassed 100 WAR (Bonds, Clemens, and Arod). Not surprisingly, all three of them are linked to steroids. Rickey Henderson also surpassed 100 WAR, though I consider him more from the 1980's generation.

      I think Pujols probably retires with a career WAR somewhere between Henderson's WAR and Arod's WAR. Also, I agree that he will probably be the last player to reach a WAR of 100 or higher for a long time.
      Last edited by fenrir; 06-23-2012, 08:53 PM.

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      • #4
        http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...h_career.shtml

        Looking at the list for pitchers - it seems even harder!

        Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson finished under 100 WAR, at 99.4 and 98.6.

        How is it possible that they couldn't get it, as good as they were?

        I don't see any pitcher getting 100 WAR for long, long time.

        Even Tom Seaver barely got over the century mark. (Clemens got way up there though)

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        • #5
          Originally posted by redban View Post
          http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...h_career.shtml

          Looking at the list for pitchers - it seems even harder!

          Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson finished under 100 WAR, at 99.4 and 98.6.

          How is it possible that they couldn't get it, as good as they were?

          I don't see any pitcher getting 100 WAR for long, long time.
          In Johnson's case, he didn't really become a dominate pitcher until his 30's. Maddux didn't reach 100+ WAR because he actually had a decline phase.

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          • #6
            CC Sabathia
            Clayton Kershaw
            Evan Longira
            Bryce Harper
            My top 10 players:

            1. Babe Ruth
            2. Barry Bonds
            3. Ty Cobb
            4. Ted Williams
            5. Willie Mays
            6. Alex Rodriguez
            7. Hank Aaron
            8. Honus Wagner
            9. Lou Gehrig
            10. Mickey Mantle

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            • #7
              Originally posted by fenrir View Post
              The interesting thing is from this generation of players and pitchers, only three have surpassed 100 WAR (Bonds, Clemens, and Arod). Ironically, all three of them are linked to steroids.
              There's absolutely nothing ironic about it. It's quite the opposite of ironic.
              My top 10 players:

              1. Babe Ruth
              2. Barry Bonds
              3. Ty Cobb
              4. Ted Williams
              5. Willie Mays
              6. Alex Rodriguez
              7. Hank Aaron
              8. Honus Wagner
              9. Lou Gehrig
              10. Mickey Mantle

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              • #8
                Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
                There's absolutely nothing ironic about it. It's quite the opposite of ironic.
                Actually, you are right. Bad choice of wording.

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                • #9
                  Whichever player does the best in WAR's flawed defensive stats.

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                  • #10
                    Interesting thing on WAR is where the catchers are placed.

                    The highest is Johnny Bench at 72.3.

                    Mike Piazza and Yogi Berra finished at 56.1, just behind Adrian Beltre.

                    I take it WAR isn't nice to catchers?

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by redban View Post
                      Interesting thing on WAR is where the catchers are placed.

                      The highest is Johnny Bench at 72.3.

                      Mike Piazza and Yogi Berra finished at 56.1, just behind Adrian Beltre.

                      I take it WAR isn't nice to catchers?

                      The fielding equation for catchers is kind of useless for catchers. It only measures a part of the running game and PB/WP and that is it.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Ubiquitous View Post
                        The fielding equation for catchers is kind of useless for catchers. It only measures a part of the running game and PB/WP and that is it.

                        since WAR is a cumulative stat, i'd also imagine that since catchers tend to play less games than other positions.....that's why they have less total WAR......stands to reason i'd think
                        "all the mets road wins against the dodgers this year have occured at Dodger Stadium"---Ralph Kiner

                        "Blind people came to the park just to listen to him pitch"---Reggie Jackson, talking about Tom Seaver

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                        • #13
                          As you probably guessed, Ken Griffey Jr. was supposed to reach 100 WAR easy.

                          After 2000, he had 74 WAR at age 30 (In comparison Pujols at age 30 had 78).

                          Who would have thought from 2001-2010, Griffey would muster only 6.1 WAR in 10 seasons.

                          If he was just average from 2001-2010, he would have been over 100.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by m8644 View Post
                            since WAR is a cumulative stat, i'd also imagine that since catchers tend to play less games than other positions.....that's why they have less total WAR......stands to reason i'd think
                            That is offset considerably by the positional adjustments.

                            For instance Frank Thomas has almost 2300 more PA than Piazza yet because Piazza has 72 positional runs and Frank has negative 192 of those runs the two are a lot closer in total WAR.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by m8644 View Post
                              since WAR is a cumulative stat, i'd also imagine that since catchers tend to play less games than other positions.....that's why they have less total WAR......stands to reason i'd think
                              Berra played 2120 games, and ended up with 56.1 WAR.

                              Beltre has played 2026 games, and has 56.3 WAR.

                              Berra is considered by many the best catcher of all time. Beltre is known as a solid player. It appears, though, that Beltre has had the better career than Berra, and also has been more valuable on a per-game basis.

                              Good fielding, decent hitting middle infielders and third baseman are vastly overrated by WAR. Catchers are likewise underrated. Ben Zobrist has 21.5 lifetime WAR in only 669 games. Evan Longoria has 27.6 WAR in only 586 games. Ian Kinsler has 27.4 WAR in 842 games. Chase Utley had 50.4(!!!) WAR in only 1109 games played.

                              If Longoria keeps up his pace, by the time he hits Berra's game played he will have around 100 WAR or more. If Utley plays 2000 games at his pace, he will have very close to 100 WAR.

                              Are Longoria and Utley really twice as valuable than Berra on a per game basis?

                              I think the next 100 WAR player will not be a superstar, but rather one of these kind of players...a good hitting, good fielding middle infielder or third baseman who happened to play for a long time.
                              Last edited by willshad; 06-23-2012, 09:51 PM.

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