Who else is loving the Orioles total upheaval of the Pythagorean Theorem thus far?

[PeteU]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi

A team that the stat-masters think "should" be 50-61 is actually 61-50!

That's why you play the game on a grass field and not on a sheet of paper....

[GiambiJuice]

Exceptions don't disprove the rule.

[KevinWI]

I do love it, but the math nerd in me has to point out that the expected W-L is the Pythagorean expectation, not the Pythagorean theorem. The Pythagorean theorem deals with the length of sides of triangles. I don't think Greek mathematician Pythagoras knew much about baseball.

[PeteU]

Exceptions don't disprove the rule.

Nope, but they do serve as a reality check for those who assume the rule to always apply.

[Buczilla]

Here is how close the system is....

0 - Exact
NY Mets
Tampa Bay
Atlanta

1
San Diego
Chicago Cubs
Kansas City
Philadelphia
Minnesota
Oakland
NY Yankees

2
LA Dodgers
San Francisco
Chicago White Sox
Detroit
LA Angels
Cincinnati
Texas
Washington

3
Milwaukee
Toronto

4
Houston
Colorado
Arizona
Seattle
Boston
Pittsburgh

6
Miami
Cleveland
St Louis

10
Baltimore

Baltimore's 10 off can be explained real easily....blowouts. The same -47 you are in RS vs RA is the same total you are behind when it comes to blowouts. St Louis in the standings look like they should have a greater record than they should because of their +86 run differential in blowouts(which was +101 before last night).

[Captain Cold Nose]

Nope, but they do serve as a reality check for those who assume the rule to always apply.

It is called an "expectation" for a reason. Latitudes are always given.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Baltimore's 10 off can be explained real easily....blowouts. The same -47 you are in RS vs RA is the same total you are behind when it comes to blowouts. St Louis in the standings look like they should have a greater record than they should because of their +86 run differential in blowouts(which was +101 before last night).

Not to mention Baltimore's absurd record in one-run games (22-6).

[Honus Wagner Rules]

No one assumes the rules always apply.

[RaysFan_98]

Not to mention Baltimore's absurd record in one-run games (22-6).

Or there 11 game win streak in extra innings games.

[dominik]

Not to mention Baltimore's absurd record in one-run games (22-6).

yes. some teams are "lucky" (orioles, giants, last year detroit) and some teams are "unlucky" (cards for example).

but over a whole season that already usually equals out (wait till season is over) and over several years there is almost no team that outperforms their expectation. 2/3rd of a season is just not enough sample size.

[Ubiquitous]

Nope, but they do serve as a reality check for those who assume the rule to always apply.

Who are these mythical strawmen who think it always applies?

[Ubiquitous]

On May 19th the Orioles had just won their 5th game in a row and were 13 games above .500 at a 27-14 record. Since then they have gone 33-37 for a .471 winning percentage. For the season pyth sees them as a .455 winning % team which would be a 32-38 record over 70 games.

You can defy pyth for awhile but you can't ever really escape it over the long haul.

[PeteU]

Who are these mythical strawmen who think it always applies?

Jay Jaffe, perhaps?

http://mlb.si.com/2012/08/06/baltimore-orioles-postseason-drea/

[ipitch]

Nope, but they do serve as a reality check for those who assume the rule to always apply.

Who thinks that?

[Ubiquitous]

Jay talks about how rare it is to exceed expectations. He doesn't state that they always apply.