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Who else is loving the Orioles total upheaval of the Pythagorean Theorem thus far?

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  • Who else is loving the Orioles total upheaval of the Pythagorean Theorem thus far?

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi

    A team that the stat-masters think "should" be 50-61 is actually 61-50!

    That's why you play the game on a grass field and not on a sheet of paper....

  • #2
    Exceptions don't disprove the rule.
    My top 10 players:

    1. Babe Ruth
    2. Barry Bonds
    3. Ty Cobb
    4. Ted Williams
    5. Willie Mays
    6. Alex Rodriguez
    7. Hank Aaron
    8. Honus Wagner
    9. Lou Gehrig
    10. Mickey Mantle

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    • #3
      I do love it, but the math nerd in me has to point out that the expected W-L is the Pythagorean expectation, not the Pythagorean theorem. The Pythagorean theorem deals with the length of sides of triangles. I don't think Greek mathematician Pythagoras knew much about baseball.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
        Exceptions don't disprove the rule.
        Nope, but they do serve as a reality check for those who assume the rule to always apply.

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        • #5
          Here is how close the system is....

          0 - Exact
          NY Mets
          Tampa Bay
          Atlanta

          1
          San Diego
          Chicago Cubs
          Kansas City
          Philadelphia
          Minnesota
          Oakland
          NY Yankees

          2
          LA Dodgers
          San Francisco
          Chicago White Sox
          Detroit
          LA Angels
          Cincinnati
          Texas
          Washington

          3
          Milwaukee
          Toronto

          4
          Houston
          Colorado
          Arizona
          Seattle
          Boston
          Pittsburgh

          6
          Miami
          Cleveland
          St Louis

          10
          Baltimore

          Baltimore's 10 off can be explained real easily....blowouts. The same -47 you are in RS vs RA is the same total you are behind when it comes to blowouts. St Louis in the standings look like they should have a greater record than they should because of their +86 run differential in blowouts(which was +101 before last night).

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          • #6
            Originally posted by PeteU View Post
            Nope, but they do serve as a reality check for those who assume the rule to always apply.
            It is called an "expectation" for a reason. Latitudes are always given.
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            Joe Gary MCA Emanuel Sonny Dave Earl Stan
            Jonathan Neil Roger Anthony Ray Thomas Art Don
            Gates Philip John Warrior Rik Casey Tony Horace
            Robin Bill Ernie JEDI

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Buczilla View Post
              Baltimore's 10 off can be explained real easily....blowouts. The same -47 you are in RS vs RA is the same total you are behind when it comes to blowouts. St Louis in the standings look like they should have a greater record than they should because of their +86 run differential in blowouts(which was +101 before last night).
              Not to mention Baltimore's absurd record in one-run games (22-6).
              46 wins to match last year's total

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              • #8
                No one assumes the rules always apply.
                Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by SamtheBravesFan View Post
                  Not to mention Baltimore's absurd record in one-run games (22-6).
                  Or there 11 game win streak in extra innings games.
                  All it takes for evil to prevail is for good men to do nothing. -Unknown

                  A good head and a good heart are always a formidable combination. -Nelson Mandela

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by SamtheBravesFan View Post
                    Not to mention Baltimore's absurd record in one-run games (22-6).
                    yes. some teams are "lucky" (orioles, giants, last year detroit) and some teams are "unlucky" (cards for example).

                    but over a whole season that already usually equals out (wait till season is over) and over several years there is almost no team that outperforms their expectation. 2/3rd of a season is just not enough sample size.
                    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by PeteU View Post
                      Nope, but they do serve as a reality check for those who assume the rule to always apply.
                      Who are these mythical strawmen who think it always applies?

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                      • #12
                        On May 19th the Orioles had just won their 5th game in a row and were 13 games above .500 at a 27-14 record. Since then they have gone 33-37 for a .471 winning percentage. For the season pyth sees them as a .455 winning % team which would be a 32-38 record over 70 games.

                        You can defy pyth for awhile but you can't ever really escape it over the long haul.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Ubiquitous View Post
                          Who are these mythical strawmen who think it always applies?
                          Jay Jaffe, perhaps?


                          http://mlb.si.com/2012/08/06/baltimo...stseason-drea/

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by PeteU View Post
                            Nope, but they do serve as a reality check for those who assume the rule to always apply.
                            Who thinks that?

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                            • #15
                              Jay talks about how rare it is to exceed expectations. He doesn't state that they always apply.

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