Does Pujols have a Good Chance at Breaking Tris Speaker's record for Career DOUBLES?

[GiambiJuice]

Most people probably don't think of Albert Pujols as a doubles machine, but that's just what he is. He just also happens to hit a bunch of homers too.

For his career, Pujols has averaged 43 doubles per 162 games and his AB:2B ratio is one of the very best in history.

Albert currently has 486 doubles. Assuming he finishes this season with 495, he would need to average 33 doubles per season for the nine remaining years on his contract to get to 792, which would tie him with Speaker.

The home run record is within reach too, though if I were a betting man I'd say the doubles record is more likely.

Thoughts?

[Brooklyn]

Most people probably don't think of Albert Pujols as a doubles machine, but that's just what he is. He just also happens to hit a bunch of homers too.

For his career, Pujols has averaged 43 doubles per 162 games and his AB:2B ratio is one of the very best in history.

Albert currently has 486 doubles. Assuming he finishes this season with 495, he would need to average 33 doubles per season for the nine remaining years on his contract to get to 792, which would tie him with Speaker.

The home run record is within reach too, though if I were a betting man I'd say the doubles record is more likely.

Thoughts?

Interesting, hadn't paid attention to his doubles progression. I'd say it is pretty unlikely but not impossible. I agree doubles is more likely than homeruns

[csh19792001]

Thoughts?

No.

1. Because of how the D.R. runs things, could be older than his MLB.com DOB lists. Perhaps several years older.

2. Very injury prone...litany of heel and knee/leg injuries that will probably conspire to cut his career short. Plus, he plays very hard and runs the bases very hard, which exacerbates this factor.

3. From 32-40, his rate will decline dramatically. Due mainly to raw foot speed, and the tendency for power hitters of that age to basically try to draw more walks and hit more home runs. Results in a lower avg of balls of play % and usually far fewer doubles/season.

[GiambiJuice]

No.

1. Because of how the D.R. runs things, could be older than his MLB.com DOB lists. Perhaps several years older.

2. Very injury prone...litany of heel and knee/leg injuries that will probably conspire to cut his career short. Plus, he plays very hard and runs the bases very hard, which exacerbates this factor.

3. From 32-40, his rate will decline dramatically. Due mainly to raw foot speed, and the tendency for power hitters of that age to basically try to draw more walks and hit more home runs. Results in a lower avg of balls of play % and usually far fewer doubles/season.

On your third point, raw foot speed has very little correlation with doubles-hitting. You have guys like Hank Greenberg, Todd Helton, Lyle Overbay, David Ortiz in the top 10 all time in AB:2B ratio. Speed really is only a big factor when trying to stretch what should be a single into a double, which just doesn't happen often enough to matter much.

[Buczilla]

Doubles
Up to & including age 32
1. Joe Medwick 507
2. Albert Pujols 486
3. Stan Musial 468
4. Tris Speaker 445
5. Robin Yount 443
6. Rogers Hornsby 435
7. Ty Cobb 431
8. Adrian Beltre 430
Ed Delahanty 430
10. Joe Cronin 428
Lou Gehrig 428
Alex Rodriguez 428

Including & after age 33
1. Pete Rose 397
2. Tris Speaker 347
3. Sam Rice 336
4. Craig Biggio 335
5. Cap Anson 329
6. Edgar Martinez 310
7. Paul Molitor 295
Honus Wagner 295
9. Ty Cobb 293
10. Jeff Kent 286

[brett]

I think he would have a better shot at the all time home run mark. He is closer to it, and at his career rates would reach it sooner.

[Ben Grimm]

I think Albert has a shot to get it. As much as he may get dinged, he's got really good recovery times. Even last year, he came back from a fractured wrist in only two weeks and still put up a season 90% of the players in the league would love to have in their resumes.

I also think he'll make a serious run at Aaron's XBH record. Albert's averaged 83 XBH's a year or so, and even with regression over 9 seasons he'll be right in line for it.

[Buczilla]

As much as I like Albert, I don't see him breaking either record.

HR
Up to & including age 32
1. Alex Rodriguez 553
2. Jimmie Foxx 500
3. Albert Pujols 470
4. Ken Griffey 468
5. Mickey Mantle 454
6. Sammy Sosa 450
7. Eddie Mathews 445
8. Hank Aaron 442
9. Frank Robinson 418
10. Babe Ruth 416

Including & after age 33
1. Barry Bonds 388
2. Hank Aaron 313
3. Rafael Palmeiro 298
Babe Ruth 298
5. Andres Galarraga 261
6. Willie Mays 254
Mark McGwire 254
8. Darrell Evans 230
Jim Thome 230
10. Reggie Jackson 223

[fenrir]

I think he would have a better shot at the all time home run mark. He is closer to it, and at his career rates would reach it sooner.

As much as I would love to see Pujols become the all-time home run king, I don't see it happening. I see him reaching around 630-650 home runs, and maybe just maybe he will pass Mays.

[GiambiJuice]

As much as I would love to see Pujols become the all-time home run king, I don't see it happening. I see him reaching around 630-650 home runs, and maybe just maybe he will pass Mays.

So you are expecting Pujols to average less than 20 homers per season during his time with the Angels (including this season)? I think you're way off. He is a virtual lock to pass Willie Mays and I'll say "pretty likely" to get to 700 and beyond. Passing Aaron is a long shot though, but not impossible - I'd give him a 5-10% chance.

[csh19792001]

I think he would have a better shot at the all time home run mark. He is closer to it, and at his career rates would reach it sooner.

That's exacty what I was going to say, but though it'd be hackneyed/obvious.

[csh19792001]

As much as I like Albert, I don't see him breaking either record.

HR
Up to & including age 32
1. Alex Rodriguez 553

But wait, all he has to do it start juicing in high school, just like A-Fraud did!!!!

Oh dammit, too late!!!

[willshad]

These kind of projections are ridiculous. Five years ago people would have said A-rod was a lock to break the HR record, and maybe even get to 1000. Now it looks like he may not even get to 700. He still hasn't passed Mays. More often than not, once a player reaches his 30s, it is a steady slope downhill...sometimes even a freefall.

[brett]

As much as I would love to see Pujols become the all-time home run king, I don't see it happening. I see him reaching around 630-650 home runs, and maybe just maybe he will pass Mays.

If he hits as many as Mays did from this point on I think he would have about 705 to 710. Still, I'd bet on just shy of 700 doubles and home runs.

[pheasant]

But wait, all he has to do it start juicing in high school, just like A-Fraud did!!!!

Oh dammit, too late!!!

But Bonds wasn't anywhere close to being on pace and he never juiced, yet he had 763 HRs.

Wait...never mind.