Who will end up with 3,000 hits? (Top 100, 8 or less years experience)

[hairmetalfreek]

By my count, there are 11 guys with 8 or less years experience in the top 100 current hits leaders. Who do you think has the staying power to reach 3,000 hits for their career?

Full list of active leaders: http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...H_active.shtml

[Yankillaz]

This one is a bummer.

I only picked Braun because his maturity as a player. The thing I have against Cano is that i believe he won't age well and he's a free swinger.

[hairmetalfreek]

I decided to look up a few historical 3,000ers and see where they stood after 8 years to give this question a little context. Longevity will certainly play a role.

Pete Rose - 1532 hits (29 years old)
George Brett - 1361 (28) - excluding 5 hits in 1973 but including 109-hit strike-shortened 1981 season
Robin Yount - 1153 (25) - this includes the 103-hit strike-shortened 1981 season and an 86-hit rookie year
Wade Boggs - 1597 (31)
Craig Biggio - 1253 (30) - excludes 26 hits in 1988
Lou Brock - 1405 (30) - excludes 1 hit from 1961
Derek Jeter - 1534 (29) - excludes 12 hits in 1995

[White Knight]

Can we do one called "Who will get to 3,500 hits?"

[GiambiJuice]

Personally, I think it makes a little more sense to do it by age instead of years of MLB experience. For example, Carl Crawford is over a year younger than Dan Uggla but he has 743 more hits than Uggla. Yet Crawford is not on the list since he has more than 8 seasons of experience.

[hairmetalfreek]

Pete Rose played for 24 seasons. The reason I used an 8-year cut off is for ease in multiplying out...their career, at best, is one-third over. Of course, factoring in decline and durability and such, you can't simply multiply current totals times three, but it makes the numbers a little easier to work with for me personally. Age is just a little more difficult for me to wrap my head around.

[hairmetalfreek]

Can we do one called "Who will get to 3,500 hits?"

I believe that would be a very short list. Only five players have ever done it, and the last one was over a quarter of a century ago. I'm not sure if Jeter has that much time left in him. Perhaps Pujols, but outside of him it's really up in the air if anyone currently playing will make it that far.

[GiambiJuice]

I believe that would be a very short list. Only five players have ever done it, and the last one was over a quarter of a century ago. I'm not sure if Jeter has that much time left in him. Perhaps Pujols, but outside of him it's really up in the air if anyone currently playing will make it that far.

And how many players have played 24 seasons as Pete Rose did?

[hairmetalfreek]

And how many players have played 24 seasons as Pete Rose did?

Player Years Played Seasons Franchises
Nolan Ryan 1966-1993 27 4
Cap Anson 1871-1897 27 3
Deacon McGuire 1884-1912 26 11
Tommy John 1963-1989 26 6
Rickey Henderson 1979-2003 25 9
Jamie Moyer 1986-2012 25 8
Jim Kaat 1959-1983 25 5
Charlie Hough 1970-1994 25 4
Bobby Wallace 1894-1918 25 3
Eddie Collins 1906-1930 25 2
Jesse Orosco 1979-2003 24 9
Steve Carlton 1965-1988 24 6
Rick Dempsey 1969-1992 24 6
Omar Vizquel 1989-2012 24 6
Dennis Eckersley 1975-1998 24 5
Roger Clemens 1984-2007 24 4
Phil Niekro 1964-1987 24 4
Pete Rose 1963-1986 24 3
Ty Cobb 1905-1928 24 2
Carlton Fisk 1969-1993 24 2

[GiambiJuice]

Player Years Played Seasons Franchises
Nolan Ryan 1966-1993 27 4
Cap Anson 1871-1897 27 3
Deacon McGuire 1884-1912 26 11
Tommy John 1963-1989 26 6
Rickey Henderson 1979-2003 25 9
Jamie Moyer 1986-2012 25 8
Jim Kaat 1959-1983 25 5
Charlie Hough 1970-1994 25 4
Bobby Wallace 1894-1918 25 3
Eddie Collins 1906-1930 25 2
Jesse Orosco 1979-2003 24 9
Steve Carlton 1965-1988 24 6
Rick Dempsey 1969-1992 24 6
Omar Vizquel 1989-2012 24 6
Dennis Eckersley 1975-1998 24 5
Roger Clemens 1984-2007 24 4
Phil Niekro 1964-1987 24 4
Pete Rose 1963-1986 24 3
Ty Cobb 1905-1928 24 2
Carlton Fisk 1969-1993 24 2

My point exactly; fewer than 10 position players in history.

[hairmetalfreek]

My point exactly; fewer than 10 position players in history.

I explained my reasoning for going with experience rather than age. It all boils down to what works in my head.