2012 Baltimore Orioles - Are they the Luckiest Team Ever?

[GiambiJuice]

The Orioles currently have a run differential of -44. According to the ancient Greek mathematician Pythagoras, their W/L record should be 60-70. That's 10 games under .500 and fighting with Toronto for last place in the AL East.

However, despite being outscored by their opponents in a big way, the Orioles have a record of 72-58, that's 14 games OVER .500. If the season ended today, they would be in the postseason as a Wild Card team.

Has there ever been a team that has so outperformed their Pythagorean record? Are the Orioles a legitimate good team or have they just gotten exceedingly lucky with their run distribution to be in the position that they're in today?

[9RoyHobbsRF]

3. The Orioles can't possibly stay this lucky. Baltimore has been outscored by 24 runs, but it is charging toward October because of one of the flukiest stats in history: It is 24-6 in games decided by one run. The Orioles can't keep it up -- not .800 baseball in one-run games. If they do, they will shatter the record for the best winning percentage in one-run games in a full season: .733, a record that has stood for 104 years (1908 Pirates).

The Orioles also could smash the record for fewest one-run losses in a full season: 10, by the 1986 Red Sox, 1998 Yankees and, oddly, 2006 Blue Jays. Yes, the Orioles hit home runs late, their bullpen is very good and manager Buck Showalter is detail obsessive, all of which help Baltimore in close games. But 24-6? That's just crazy.


Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz259PdR5pU

my addition would be it is a team's duty to try and win as many games as they can, what they should have won based on runs scored and runs allowed is not as important as that

[9RoyHobbsRF]

the Giants in 1997 were outscored but won their division and played baseball 18 games over .500

my memory is they would win 2 close games and get blown out the third game in a typical series

[RaysFan_98]

Still think they will falter that rd will catch up to em.

[Evangelion]

The Orioles also could smash the record for fewest one-run losses in a full season: 10, by the 1986 Red Sox, 1998 Yankees and, oddly, 2006 Blue Jays. Yes, the Orioles hit home runs late, their bullpen is very good and manager Buck Showalter is detail obsessive, all of which help Baltimore in close games. But 24-6? That's just crazy.

1986 Red Sox and 1998 Yankees went to World Series during those seasons.

It's just one of those unexplainable phenomenons.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Five Division champions have been outscored.

[B]Year  Team                  RS   RA    RD   W-L   Exp W-L    Playoff Outcome[/B]
1984  Kansas City Royals    673  686  -13  84-78   80-82     Lost ALCS 3-0
1987  Minnesota Twins       786  806  -20  85-77   79-83     Won ALCS 3-1, Won WS 4-3
1997  San Francisco Giants  784  793   -9  90-72   80-82     Lost NLDS 3-0
2005  San Diego Padres      684  726  -42  82-20   77-85     Lost NLDS 3-0
2007  Arizona D-Backs       712  732  -20  90-72   79-83     Won NLDS 3-0, Lost NLCS 4-0

[J W]

Yep. The score of a given game this season for Baltimore has more or less been decided by that day's starting pitcher. If Brian Matusz (5-10), Jake Arrieta (3-9) or Tommy Hunter (4-8) took the mound, many times they would give up runs and not go very deep in the game. Buck would then trot out Kevin Gregg to give up a couple more runs and the team would be blown out. If Jason Hammel (8-6), Wei-Yin Chen (12-7) or more recently Chris Tillman (7-2) took the mound, they would keep the team in the game and the bullpen would keep the opponent scoreless from the moment they leave. We've had several long scoreless streaks from our bullpen in Baltimore. Another stat to keep track of: the Orioles are 56-0 when leading after seven innings.

In the past 29 games the Orioles have gone 20-9. In that time, they have a positive run differential of +19. Not amazing for sure (a couple 3-12 losses to the Yankees and Rangers will do that) but a lot closer to reason than before. Simply put, they've gotten better starting pitching and shored up their defense with Manny Machado at 3B, Omar Quintanilla at 2B, Mark Reynolds at 1B and Nate McLouth in LF.

Also of note, the team has done much better with Nick Markakis in the lineup than without. In early May, the team played Texas in a four game set without Kakes and was outscored 36-15 in that series.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

the Giants in 1997 were outscored but won their division and played baseball 18 games over .500

my memory is they would win 2 close games and get blown out the third game in a typical series

I checked boxscores and the Giants allowed 10+ runs in 18 games. That seems like a lot for a first place team. Here are the scores for those 18 games, all losses.

19-3
15-4
15-4
15-6
14-13
14-2
12-3
12-3
12-2
11-7
11-0
11-6
11-0
11-5
10-3
10-7
10-3
10-7

The Giants allowed 223 runs and scored just 78 runs for a -145 run differential.

I also check the Giants top 18 scoring games. They scored 10+ runs in only 8 games.

17-4
16-4
16-2
14-7
13-14
11-5
11-5
10-3
9-5
9-2
9-1
9-1
8-7
8-6
8-6
8-5
8-5
8-5

The Giants scored 192 runs and allowed 87 runs for a +105 run differential. They were 17-1 in these 18 games.

But check this out. The Giants were 51-36 W-L (.586) in the first half despite being outscored by 18 runs (383 RS, 401 RA). Yet in the second half the Giants outscored their opponents by 9 runs (401 RS, 392 RA) yet only had a 39-36 W-L (.520) record. They also had a 23-17 W-L record in 1-run games, not a stupendous record. That 1997 Giants were one strange team.

[dgarza]

Another pretty lucky team was the Cleveland Indians in the 20s.

In 1922, they were 78-76, .506, with a seasonal 49 run deficit.
2nd Half, 42-32, .568, Run Differential -28

From 1929-1930, they were 162-144, .529. Both years being over .500. But for those 2 years straight, they were outscored.
1607 Runs For
1651 Runs Against

[dgarza]

The team with the biggest run deficit that still managed to top .500 that I have found so far has been the 1962 Phillies.
81-80, .503
54 runs in the hole

The 1972 Mets were 50 runs in the hole, but managed a .532 record.

[josh24]

The team with the biggest run deficit that still managed to top .500 that I have found so far has been the 1962 Phillies.
81-80, .503
54 runs in the hole.

1905 Tigers wouldn't agree with you.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

1905 Tigers wouldn't agree with you.

Wow, the 1905 Tigers were outscored by 92 runs (512-604) and still had a 79-74 W-L record?

[dgarza]

Wow, the 1905 Tigers were outscored by 92 runs (512-604) and still had a 79-74 W-L record?

I didn't even think that was possible...

[Blackout]

I TOLD YOU GUYS ALL IN APRIL THAT BALTIMORE WAS GOING TO WIN THE AL EAST


yet i got laughed at....shows that I'm the most knowledgeable on this site.

[Rich the Giants fan]

I TOLD YOU GUYS ALL IN APRIL THAT BALTIMORE WAS GOING TO WIN THE AL EAST


yet i got laughed at....shows that I'm the most knowledgeable on this site.

Of course, they haven't won the AL East and they aren't even in first place at this moment.