How bad are the 2012 Houston Astros?

[oolalaa]

Can you guys give me an historical perspective on exactly how bad the Houston Astros have been this season? I'm not interested in just numbers (Although, I do love stats, so chuck some at me!), I'm interested in a general feeling of crudiness from people who have perhaps lived through or witnessed other terrible teams, or people who are just incredibly well versed on the history of the game.

Are they one of the least talented teams ever? Or maybe one of the most dysfunctional? Is their manager any good? Is he partly to blame? Can the season be blamed on injuries? etc. Just how bad are they? Maybe they're not even that bad? Just some thoughts would be appreciated....

[Buczilla]

Minus statistics, I think the 2011 Astros season was worse. They were a terrible team even before they sent Bourn and Pence away.

[J W]

Let's look at the offense first. They are dead last in team batting average (.237) and next to last in both OBP (.303) and SLG (.370). Their team OPS+ is 82... meaning they average out to a backup infielder (or starting middle infielder if he's got a good glove). They've only had two significant players age 30 or older: Carlos Lee, who is hitting an empty .287, and platoon catcher Chris Snyder whose line barely qualifies for a #2 catcher. Their best OPS man is 28 year old Jed Lowrie, their shortstop, with a 114 OPS+. So is it a youth problem? Well, 2B Jose Altuve is showing a lot of promise in his second season and the other catcher Jason Castro is catching on (pardon the pun), but neither is showing much power and other than them, the team is stock full of 28-ish year old AAAA players with little room for improvement. They lead the NL in strikeouts and yet can only muster 130 team home runs playing half their games in Minute Maid Park.

Pitching? Well, they're 15th in ERA with a 4.63 but adjusting for the ballpark it looks a bit better (88 ERA+ as opposed to an 82 OPS+). Again they have a lot of guys between 25-28 years of age, which makes sense because those are the years you get them for cheap. Their ace, if you could call him that, is Lucas Harrell, who has put up a respectable season (10-10, 104 ERA+, 1.352 WHIP). Speaking of which, their team WHIP is 1.442 and they've given up 166 home runs, again 15th worst in the league.

Let's put this another way:
Team WAR, position players = 1.4
Team WAR, pitchers = 4.5

I am going to attribute most of the issue simply to a lack of talent stemming from poor front office management / money saving. I only see three free agents with any clout, and they're all already gone (Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodroguez and Brett Myers). I only see a couple of prospects worth noting. And the MVP of the team is probably right handed reliver Wilton Lopez, who is actually 6-3 for the team with a 2.17 ERA. When a middle reliever is your team MVP, that's just a sorry team.

[J W]

Less than 60 wins, post '94/'95 strike:

2008 Washington Nationals (59-102) 84 OPS+, 93 ERA+
2009 Washington Nationals (59-103) 96 OPS+, 85 ERA+
2004 Kansas City Royals (58-104) 86 OPS+, 93 ERA+
2010 Pittsburgh Pirates (57-105) 84 OPS+, 81 ERA+
2002 Milwaukee Brewers (56-106) 88 OPS+, 86 ERA+
2005 Kansas City Royals (56-106) 91 OPS+, 80 ERA+
2011 Houston Astros (56-106) 89 OPS+, 84 ERA+
2002 Tampa Bay D-Rays (55-106) 89 OPS+, 84 ERA+
2002 Detroit Tigers (55-106) 86 OPS+, 87 ERA+
1998 Florida Marlins (54-108) 86 OPS+, 78 ERA+
1996 Detroit Tigers (53-109) 87 OPS+, 80 ERA+
2004 Arizona D-backs (51-111) 77 OPS+, 92 ERA+
2012 Houston Astros (50-102) 82 OPS+, 88 ERA+
2003 Detroit Tigers (43-119) 83 OPS+, 81 ERA+

[J W]

Fun fact: Chris Snyder played on three of the teams listed above (2004 Diamondbacks, 2010 Pirates and 2012 Astros).

[Iso7x]

May I suggest only slightly worse than the 2012 Rockies.

[dgarza]

As they stand now, the 2012 Atros have a complete team WAR of 4.7. At least neither their pWAR nor their batting WAR are negative, as had happened to other teams in the recent past.

[dgarza]

Also, as of today, the Astros have only 1 player to get 100 hits.

I know their season is not over yet, but this almost never happen in a non-strike season.
A bunch of 1981 teams had 0 or just 1 100+ hit players, and the Phillies had 0 in 1994.

But only the 1972 Mets, who had nobody get 100 hits that year, could be as bad in a 154+ game season.

You have to back to the 1906 St. Louis Cards (and prior) to find the next team with only 1 player to get 100 hits.

[GiambiJuice]

The Astros are committed to $5.5 million in payroll for 2013, and $5 million of that goes to the Pirates to help pay for Wandy Rodriguez.

The Astros currently have one player on the entire roster making more than $1 million, and that's Jed Lowrie at $1.15 million. To put that in context, the Yankees have 20 players earning more than $1 million and 16 players earning at least $2 million.

[oolalaa]

Let's look at the offense first. They are dead last in team batting average (.237) and next to last in both OBP (.303) and SLG (.370). Their team OPS+ is 82... meaning they average out to a backup infielder (or starting middle infielder if he's got a good glove). They've only had two significant players age 30 or older: Carlos Lee, who is hitting an empty .287, and platoon catcher Chris Snyder whose line barely qualifies for a #2 catcher. Their best OPS man is 28 year old Jed Lowrie, their shortstop, with a 114 OPS+. So is it a youth problem? Well, 2B Jose Altuve is showing a lot of promise in his second season and the other catcher Jason Castro is catching on (pardon the pun), but neither is showing much power and other than them, the team is stock full of 28-ish year old AAAA players with little room for improvement. They lead the NL in strikeouts and yet can only muster 130 team home runs playing half their games in Minute Maid Park.

Pitching? Well, they're 15th in ERA with a 4.63 but adjusting for the ballpark it looks a bit better (88 ERA+ as opposed to an 82 OPS+). Again they have a lot of guys between 25-28 years of age, which makes sense because those are the years you get them for cheap. Their ace, if you could call him that, is Lucas Harrell, who has put up a respectable season (10-10, 104 ERA+, 1.352 WHIP). Speaking of which, their team WHIP is 1.442 and they've given up 166 home runs, again 15th worst in the league.

Let's put this another way:
Team WAR, position players = 1.4
Team WAR, pitchers = 4.5

I am going to attribute most of the issue simply to a lack of talent stemming from poor front office management / money saving. I only see three free agents with any clout, and they're all already gone (Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodroguez and Brett Myers). I only see a couple of prospects worth noting. And the MVP of the team is probably right handed reliver Wilton Lopez, who is actually 6-3 for the team with a 2.17 ERA. When a middle reliever is your team MVP, that's just a sorry team.

Great summary.

[Rich the Giants fan]

The Astros are committed to $5.5 million in payroll for 2013, and $5 million of that goes to the Pirates to help pay for Wandy Rodriguez.

The Astros currently have one player on the entire roster making more than $1 million, and that's Jed Lowrie at $1.15 million. To put that in context, the Yankees have 20 players earning more than $1 million and 16 players earning at least $2 million.

And this is why they have hope for the future. If they can excel at developing prospects as well as spending their money wisely, they can return to prominence quickly. They've got lots of cash to spend this winter. I would not be at all surprised to see them make a big splash or two.

[J W]

The problem there is that their prospects have to develop. Carlos Correa has an ETA of 2016, and he's not the only top organizational prospect with a long-term projection. That means their immediate hopes lie with OF Jonathan Singleton and SP Jarred Cosart. It's not looking good for several more seasons. And until they get these high draft picks in the majors and start winning with them, big-name free agents won't want to come to Houston. I don't see them making much of a splash at all in the offseason.

[dominik]

And this is why they have hope for the future. If they can excel at developing prospects as well as spending their money wisely, they can return to prominence quickly. They've got lots of cash to spend this winter. I would not be at all surprised to see them make a big splash or two.

yes but only if they are smart. A lot of teams have failed in rebuilds despite high drafts. of course there are teams like the rays and now the nats who have been last for 5 years and so filled up their farm system but high drafts are stilll no guarantee. you still need a smart concept.

[dominik]

The problem there is that their prospects have to develop. Carlos Correa has an ETA of 2016, and he's not the only top organizational prospect with a long-term projection. That means their immediate hopes lie with OF Jonathan Singleton and SP Jarred Cosart. It's not looking good for several more seasons. And until they get these high draft picks in the majors and start winning with them, big-name free agents won't want to come to Houston. I don't see them making much of a splash at all in the offseason.

yes and it would also not make sense to add big FAs to a 60 win team. that would only make it an 80 win team or so.
the way to go is to wait till your core of homegrown players win like 75-80 games (and drafting high a few more times in the process) and then ad FAs. you cannot really fix a 60 win team with FAs unless you have 100 millions in your hand.

[abolishthedh]

In the spirit of previous responses, prospects have to develop while ownership cannot foolishly blow cash on short term fix FAs.

The Cardinals are playing the Astros right now, and in the background it is clear that the stands are empty. The picture is a reminder that Astro ownership has no clue. Remember when their current stadium was built and hyped as a revenue generator? That already seems like another era.

Since the owners of the 'Stros have no idea how to reform into a winner, a lot of luck will be necessary.