Sportswriters and WAR

[AstrosFan]

I'm putting this in Current Events because it pertains to this year's AL MVP race.

http://www.sports-reference.com/blog...into-war-zero/

What do you think of the author's arguments? Are his criticisms fair? Remember, this is not about what you think of WAR itself, but about the points the author makes in his article.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

One of the sportswriters attacking WAR is Bill Madden whose article is linked in you OP's link. According to Madden saber-types are attacking R.A. Dickey's Cy Young Award candidacy. Who are these saber-types? I know many disagree with Cabrera as MVP but I haven't really read any articles about Dickey not being a worthy CYA candidate.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Here is what Madden said about Cabrera:

Much as Dickey has seemingly been disrespected, however, the seamhead assault on Cabrera has been nothing short of mind-boggling. Here’s a guy having one of the greatest offensive seasons in history, on the cusp of being the first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967, and yet there is this clamor from the sabermetrics gallery that Cabrera must be penalized for his slowness afoot and supposed defensive shortcomings. To hear them tell it, if Cabrera winds up leading the league in batting, homers, RBI, slugging and total bases, and being second in hits and runs, it will still pale in comparison to L.A. Angels super rookie Mike Trout leading the league in runs, stolen bases and . . . WAR.

Is Cabrera really having one of the greatest offensive season in history? Really Bill Madden. Since when is a .325 BA, 43 HR, 136 RBI one of the greatest season in baseball history? That is asinine. Albert Pujols had this kind of season every season for 10 years. Shoot, in 2005 Derrek Lee hit .335/46 HR/107 RBI and no one called Lee's season one of baseball history's greatest seasons.

[m8644]

Here is what Madden said about Cabrera:


Is Cabrera really having one of the greatest offensive season in history? Really Bill Madden. Since when is a .325 BA, 43 HR, 136 RBI one of the greatest season in baseball history? That is asinine. Albert Pujols had this kind of season every season for 10 years. Shoot, in 2005 Derrek Lee hit .335/46 HR/107 RBI and no one called Lee's season one of baseball history's greatest seasons.

Bill Madden is known as one of the biggest morons in the media around here in NY (atleast among knowledgeable fans). It's a running joke among alot of people that he was elected to the Sportswriter HOF a few years ago

[StanTheMan]

Greatest "seasons" is a very poor choice of words. Great "accomplishment" (The Triple Crown) is more accurate. Relative to every batter in the AL, he's on the cusp of something magnificent.

If his numbers don't match up to that of a great NL hitter - voters won't (and shouldn't) care. A World Series ring won by a team with less wins than another team shines just as brightly. A batting title is a batting title and is not immediatley compared to other seasons but to the batters from that year.

[pheasant]

I think Bill Madden is off of his rocker. Just because he doesn't understand a metric doesn't mean he has to dismiss it. Rather than trying to make his case for Cabrera as MVP by bashing Sabermatricians, he should just use Cabrera's good points to support his case. That shouldn't be that tough to do. Although I'd pick Trout over Cabrera, I certainly understand why Cabrera would win. Cabrera's huge hitting down the stretch is a great start to support Cabrera's case.

[dgarza]

Really Bill Madden. Since when is a .325 BA, 43 HR, 136 RBI one of the greatest season in baseball history?

Those kind of numbers in THAT combination don't come around every year. And that fact that THIS particular year it could create a Triple Crown winner is impressive, no doubt. And Cabrera is helping the Tigers into the playoffs. But that doesn't mean other players are automatically out of the running for MVP. It doesn't even necessarily mean Cabrera is the best player.

Other players have gone .325, 43 HRs, 136 RBIs without even leading the league in any one of those categories.

Those in bold did not lead any of those 3 stats.

                                    
Rk           Player Year   BA HR RBI
1    Miguel Cabrera 2012 .325 43 136
2     Albert Pujols 2006 .331 49 137
3       Barry Bonds 2001 .328 73 137
[B]4       Todd Helton 2001 .336 49 146[/B]
5        Sammy Sosa 2001 .328 64 160
[B]6     Luis Gonzalez 2001 .325 57 142
7      Frank Thomas 2000 .328 43 143
8      Jason Giambi 2000 .333 43 137[/B]
9     Manny Ramirez 1999 .333 44 165
[B]10     Albert Belle 1998 .328 49 152
11        Mo Vaughn 1996 .326 44 143[/B]
12   Ted Kluszewski 1954 .326 49 141
13         Al Rosen 1953 .336 43 145
14     Ted Williams 1949 .343 43 159
15      Jimmie Foxx 1938 .349 50 175
16     Joe DiMaggio 1937 .346 46 167
17       Lou Gehrig 1936 .354 49 152
18       Lou Gehrig 1934 .363 49 165
19      Jimmie Foxx 1933 .356 48 163
20      Jimmie Foxx 1932 .364 58 169
21        Babe Ruth 1931 .373 46 163
22       Lou Gehrig 1931 .341 46 184
23      Hack Wilson 1930 .356 56 191
24        Babe Ruth 1930 .359 49 153
25      Chuck Klein 1929 .356 43 145
26        Babe Ruth 1929 .345 46 154
27        Babe Ruth 1927 .356 60 164
28       Lou Gehrig 1927 .373 47 175
29        Babe Ruth 1926 .372 47 146
30        Babe Ruth 1921 .378 59 171
31        Babe Ruth 1920 .376 54 137

[JR Hart]

"But this growing infatuation with WAR (wins above replacement) is, in my opinion, turning baseball into an inhuman board game. This is a stat that even its inventors can’t agree on an established formula, other than when all of these various factors of offense and defense are put into a blender and shaken well, out comes the player’s value to a team in wins above and beyond the “replacement” value of a player taken off the waiver wire for nothing. In other words, one big hypothetical. According to one blogger last week, Trout’s superior WAR demonstrates that “he has helped his team win roughly three to four more games than Cabrera has helped his.” Don’t ask how that conclusion is reached. Much of this, presumably, is based on Trout’s superior defense and speed. But again, all of this is hypothetical, and how do you vote on a stat nobody knows how to calculate? "

Bravo for you Mr Madden. I couldn't have said it better. Keep up the good work

BTW, I've been playing strat-o-matic baseball for 37 years. I love it. But, I've known all along that it's a game, based on probabilities. Sometimes the results come closer to the actual season, sometimes they don't. BUT, I've known all along that there is no human element to it. It's only for amusement and the results have no meaning.

[George H Ruth]

Here is what Madden said about Cabrera:


Is Cabrera really having one of the greatest offensive season in history? Really Bill Madden. Since when is a .325 BA, 43 HR, 136 RBI one of the greatest season in baseball history? That is asinine. Albert Pujols had this kind of season every season for 10 years. Shoot, in 2005 Derrek Lee hit .335/46 HR/107 RBI and no one called Lee's season one of baseball history's greatest seasons.

Very solid point.

.325 may not win the batting title this year, the way Mauer keeps going. But it also would be the lowest average to win the AL batting title since Rod Carew's .318 in 1972.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/batting_avg_leagues.shtml

So it's not that historic. He just happens to be in the right league in the right season.

Same reason that the Angels not making the playoffs and the Tigers making the playoffs this year is mostly arbitrary, because of the way the divisions are set up. Why should anyone give extra points to Cabrera when the Angels have a better record?

[9RoyHobbsRF]

I mentioned this on another thread but it was just repeated on the yankees broadcast on mlb tv

"Cabrera is a better candidate than Trout because he led his team to the playoffs and the Angels most likely won't be in the playoffs"

umm, reality check here, the Angels have a BETTER record than the Tigers -- being in a piss poor division entitles you to an MVP award?

If the Tigers played in the AL West they would be in 4th place

If The Angels played in the AL Central they would be in 1st place

[JR Hart]

Just the fact that the sabermetric people are poo pooing the triple crown is very revealing.

[JR Hart]

Players here are constantly penalized for playing for playing in leagues with a lot of hitting (see DiMaggio). Now we are downplaying Cabrera because his TRIPLE CROWN stats aren't that good. You can't it both ways, folks.

[m8644]

Just the fact that the sabermetric people are poo pooing the triple crown is very revealing.

yes, we hate the triple crown. Absolutely hate it....it has nothing to do with the fact that, while Cabrera adds absolutely nothing defensively or on the bases....Trout is among the very best in the league at both aspects.

Nah....that's too logical for us saber morons right??

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Just the fact that the sabermetric people are poo pooing the triple crown is very revealing.

I certainly don't poopoo the Triple Crown. It's a unique historical accomplishment and I hope Cabrera does it. The last one was in 1967. I was born in 1968 and gosh-darn-it I want to see one in my lifetime! But I also believe that winning the Triple Crown is irrelevant in terms of winning MVP award. If Cabrera just falls short of the Triple Crown does that make him any less of an MVP candidate if he actually did do it? I don't think so. I haven't decided on who I think should win the AL MVP. I always wait until the regular season is over to decide.

[Brooklyn]

To answer the OP's question, I don't think the author is being fair, specifically his comment "I'm sure many have taken the time to read our exhaustive introduction to WAR". unless the author takes the time to read everything printed by every sports writer he is chastising, why would he be arrogant enough to think they need to read his articles?

And forgetting that for a second, it isn't exaclty as readable as he makes it sound. This isn't a simple concept to understand. As to whether sports writers should rely on WAR, I think far too many writers are talking about WAR without understanding what goes into it. I have far less respect for writers that use a stat that someone else calculated and they don't have a clue what goes into it than writers that choose to ignore it completely

Further, you could probalby get someone to wrap their arms around the offensive portion (and they may or may not agree with it), but defense is much more of a mystery. For example, it is tough to see how Cano is worth 0.7 more wins than Cabrera overall, when offensively he is worth 1.2 less wins. His discription of the details of the system is a link out to the Fielding Bible on Amazon.com - as I said earlier, I can't expect a writer to take a stat at face value without understanding what goes into it, and there is nothing on this site that gives enough details to understand how the defense is awarded