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Do you expect Trout to keep up this very high level of play?

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  • Do you expect Trout to keep up this very high level of play?

    Assuming he stays healthy, does he keep up this high level of play for a long time? Does he get better? Or do you think his historic rookie season is a fluke? If he does keep producing like he did in 2012, or even better, then he could easily go down as one of the greatest all-around players ever.

  • #2
    Originally posted by fenrir View Post
    Assuming he stays healthy, does he keep up this high level of play for a long time? Does he get better? Or do you think his historic rookie season is a fluke? If he does keep producing like he did in 2012, or even better, then he could easily go down as one of the greatest all-around players ever.
    I think he does have the talent but we will see what happens if pitchers adjust to him and find his weak spots. many good hitters have never re-adjusted after pitchers figured them out (howard and the breaking ball is an extreme example). the really great hitters do adjust back though, we will see what trout can do. it will definitely be harder for him net season and I expect a drop off. but I don't know how much.
    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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    • #3
      I actually expect him to decline after a few years. It is a gut feeling.
      "Allen Sutton Sothoron pitched his initials off today."--1920s article

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      • #4
        I see no reason why he wouldn't keep up this high level of play. It's not like there are no precedents for having an amazing rookie season followed by a HoF or near-HoF caliber career.

        Consider the following Rookies of the Year who went on to have pretty good careers (or are still having them).

        Albert Pujols
        Ryan Braun
        Mike Piazza
        Willie Mays
        Frank Robinson
        Willie McCovey
        Rod Carew
        Carlton Fisk
        Andre Dawson
        Cal Ripken
        Jeff Bagwell
        Derek Jeter
        Ichiro
        Carlos Beltran
        Evan Longoria
        Pete Rose
        Johnny Bench
        Tony Oliva

        And consider Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio, who had amazing rookie seasons before there was a RoY award, or A-Rod, who was not eligible in 1996, but would have blown away Jeter if he was.

        Granted, not all on this list had a rookie season to match Trout's, and there are many Rookies of the Year who faded into obscurity or were hobbled by injuries, but for the most part, there is no reason to believe he couldn't match anyone on this list, career-wise.

        And, for the record, I think Buster Posey has the potential to do the same, thus joining Fisk, Bench and Piazza on the list.
        "I can see how he won twenty-five games. What I don't understand is how he lost five." - Yogi Berra on Sandy Koufax's 1963 season.

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        • #5
          It's tough to say how Trout's career will play out. I think since he has such a broad range of baseball skills he will continue to play at a very high level. I do believe his power potential is off the charts. I think he'll have many 40 home run seasons and perhaps a 50 home run season when he gets older.
          Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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          • #6
            If his career turns out better than Carlos Beltran's that would be very impressive. He is not the second coming of Willie Mays and will not put up consistent 10+ WAR seasons.
            My top 10 players:

            1. Babe Ruth
            2. Barry Bonds
            3. Ty Cobb
            4. Ted Williams
            5. Willie Mays
            6. Alex Rodriguez
            7. Hank Aaron
            8. Honus Wagner
            9. Lou Gehrig
            10. Mickey Mantle

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            • #7
              Here's an interesting - albeit arbitrary - tidbit.

              Seasons with minimum 49 SB, 83 RBI, and 129 Runs scored in the same season:

              Ty Cobb 1911
              Tris Speaker 1912
              Ty Cobb 1915
              George Sisler 1922
              Mike Trout 2012
              My top 10 players:

              1. Babe Ruth
              2. Barry Bonds
              3. Ty Cobb
              4. Ted Williams
              5. Willie Mays
              6. Alex Rodriguez
              7. Hank Aaron
              8. Honus Wagner
              9. Lou Gehrig
              10. Mickey Mantle

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              • #8
                Even if Trout falls off next year, he can still put up 6.0 WAR or greater. He's set his standard so high that it's difficult to project him as anything but a superstar for years to come. Assuming he stays healthy as the OP says, he could very well be the next all-time great CF.
                http://gifrific.com/wp-content/uploa...-showalter.gif

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
                  If his career turns out better than Carlos Beltran's that would be very impressive. He is not the second coming of Willie Mays and will not put up consistent 10+ WAR seasons.
                  what is that statement based on? the chance that you are right is like 95% of course since players like mays are extremely rare but is there anything specific your prediction is based on?
                  I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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                  • #10
                    A .381 BABIP is not repeatable for most players - even for the very best and fastest, so I would suspect a drop in BA and OB% next year. And since y2y defensive metric correlations are not great, his DRS could be worse in reality than what WAR says. When you don't have years of data, it is the safest assumption to assume extreme values will regress going forward. I look for a guy posting 7-8 WAR seasons year in and year out.
                    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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                    • #11
                      If Trout had been an average major league hitter this year he would still have 5.2 WAR, (6.1 per 162).
                      If he had played average CF and was an average baserunner he'd be at 7.6 (8.9 per 162).

                      So he is very unique in getting so much value from so many areas.

                      In the short term, it is hard to believe that he will not be a plus defensive centerfielder, plus runner and plus hitter, though it will be hard for him to match his fielding, running or hitting next year. I think we might see him close or a little under .300, 30 home runs, 40-10 in steals and +10 defensive runs which is still going to be MVP caliber.

                      In the long run, centerfielders don't retain their defense very deep into their careers, and I don't think he is going to run THAT much, but with the low throwout rates in the majors these days, who knows, he might steal 90.

                      I think he leads the majors in WAR from baserunning, WAR from defense (at his position) and batting runs above replacement.

                      He is VERY similar to Mays in that he can get value across the board. But for Mays, he had some better hitting years, some better running years, some better fielding years. Trout already is near maxed out, but be mindful that he's at 12.5 per 162. On the other hand, I do think pitchers will get him out more, he has been a bit opportunistic on the bases, and his defense will decline between now and his early 30s.
                      Last edited by brett; 10-03-2012, 12:43 PM.

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                      • #12
                        --It is possible his rookie season will end up being his best ever season, but he has all the tools and I'd expect him to be a regular All Star and frequent MVP candidate for many years to come. I'd be surprised if he doesn't have at least a Fred Lynn type career and a Mays type career while unlikely is not impossible.

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                        • #13
                          Or Trout could mature as a hitter and get even better. The boy just turned 21. He will bulk up a little more naturally. And he'll get smarter. However, that'll be offset by the much tougher pitching that he'll receive in the future. But they better not pitch him too finely and walk him. Otherwise, they'll be burning up valuable pitches and potentially putting him on 2nd base in the process. This guy is insane. I see a 5 year peak of .300/.390/.550 with 30 HRs, 40 SB per year at a 85% SB% and glove glove defense. Doing this in the most competitive era ever makes him tough. Of course, I'm assuming that he'll stay extremely dedicated in order to pull this off.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by dominik View Post
                            what is that statement based on? the chance that you are right is like 95% of course since players like mays are extremely rare but is there anything specific your prediction is based on?
                            Matthew answered this one for me. I was going to say pretty much the same thing.
                            My top 10 players:

                            1. Babe Ruth
                            2. Barry Bonds
                            3. Ty Cobb
                            4. Ted Williams
                            5. Willie Mays
                            6. Alex Rodriguez
                            7. Hank Aaron
                            8. Honus Wagner
                            9. Lou Gehrig
                            10. Mickey Mantle

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by pheasant View Post
                              Or Trout could mature as a hitter and get even better. The boy just turned 21. He will bulk up a little more naturally. And he'll get smarter. However, that'll be offset by the much tougher pitching that he'll receive in the future. But they better not pitch him too finely and walk him. Otherwise, they'll be burning up valuable pitches and potentially putting him on 2nd base in the process. This guy is insane. I see a 5 year peak of .300/.390/.550 with 30 HRs, 40 SB per year at a 85% SB% and glove glove defense. Doing this in the most competitive era ever makes him tough. Of course, I'm assuming that he'll stay extremely dedicated in order to pull this off.
                              I guess it is possible, but you can't really improve on a .381 BABIP.

                              I always think about A-Rod's 1996 season, he hit like .360 that year, and everybody was like " once he learns the game he will hit .380 every year, etc." The real culprit was his unsustainable BABIP -he never sniffed a BABIP or BA that high ever again.
                              1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                              1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                              1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                              The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                              The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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