Albert Pujols 2012 season

[fenrir]

.285/.343/.516 line
30 home runs
105 RBI's
141 OPS+
4.6 WAR
52 walks (16 intentional)

A solid season, and hardly "finished" as some of his detractors asserted earlier in the season, but is this the definite decline of Pujols? He's going on 33, so it's highly unlikely that he ever has another season at his peak level, but who knows.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I think Pujols has 1 or 2 "monster" seasons left in him.

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

I don't think so. His numbers are regular Pujols once he got through April. He did well considering the big move under the pressure of a huge contract and, as usual, his tolerance for pain kept him performing. He will do better next year.

It's also worth noting that as we enter a pitching era, his raw numbers may never be the same.

[GiambiJuice]

.285/.343/.516 line
30 home runs
105 RBI's
141 OPS+
4.6 WAR
52 walks (16 intentional)

A solid season, and hardly "finished" as some of his detractors asserted earlier in the season, but is this the definite decline of Pujols? He's going on 33, so it's highly unlikely that he ever has another season at his peak level, but who knows.

Pujols also has 50 doubles and his 80 XBH is second in the AL behind Robinson Cano (82).

Plus Pujols is one of only two players (Jose Reyes being the other) with more XBH than strikeouts.

[fenrir]

Pujols also has 50 doubles and his 80 XBH is second in the AL behind Robinson Cano (82).

This is true. I'm just baffled at his walk rate dropping so much.

[UnderPressure]

This is true. I'm just baffled at his walk rate dropping so much.

Maybe because pitchers aren't that afraid of him like they were in his prime.

[brett]

Pujols is adjusting his style, which is a sign. I think his extra base power will stay high though for a few years, and he could even hit 45+

Since May 15th: .312/.374/.589 over 119 games.

LA also has a low offensive park factor: .310 OB% and .397 slugging, so his rates for those 119 games would be at a 169 OPS+, better than his career rates.

[dominik]

Pujols is adjusting his style, which is a sign. I think his extra base power will stay high though for a few years, and he could even hit 45+

Since May 15th: .312/.374/.589 over 119 games.

LA also has a low offensive park factor: .310 OB% and .397 slugging, so his rates for those 119 games would be at a 169 OPS+, better than his career rates.

yes. we he is on he is still one of the best. I think he will continue to be but I wonder if over time his hot periods will get shorter and those slumps get longer. like last year he did finish strong but in both years he also had extended slumps (not just a bad week but really long slumps) in both of those years. He did not have those in the ten seasons before (of course even in his prime he would go occasionally 0-15 but that he hit a whole month like mario mendoza was unheard of).

[brett]

I predict next year: .312 50 doubles, 40 home runs, 140 RBI, 170 OPS+ but only 65-70 walks.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I predict next year: .312 50 doubles, 40 home runs, 140 RBI, 170 OPS+ but only 65-70 walks.

Any theories about Pujols' declining walk rate? I remember reading recently (at fangraphs I think) that he is swinging at pitches outside the strike zone much more than a few years ago. Could this be one cause for his declining walk rate?

[Bothrops Atrox]

Any theories about Pujols' declining walk rate? I remember reading recently (at fangraphs I think) that he is swinging at pitches outside the strike zone much more than a few years ago. Could this be one cause for his declining walk rate?

This and he is getting 20-30 fewer IBB than he did in his best OB% seasons.

[dominik]

This and he is getting 20-30 fewer IBB than he did in his best OB% seasons.

yes. but he is also hacking more. the last 2 years his outside the zone swing percentage increased dramatically. his career average was about 22% and in 2011 it was 31 and even 36 in 2012

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1177&position=1B

that is quite unusual. it does happen that players walk less because the pitchers don't fear them anymore and rather lay one in but that a player starts to lose his eye and chases pitches doesn't happen very often. usually the eye is the last thing that goes and many older players even compensate for losing contact ability by being more selective (thus walking more).

[PlanetZoltan]

I predict next year: .312 50 doubles, 40 home runs, 140 RBI, 170 OPS+ but only 65-70 walks.

I just dont see Albert driving in 140 runs. He hasnt done it yet in his career and has only been close twice.

[brett]

I just dont see Albert driving in 140 runs. He hasnt done it yet in his career and has only been close twice.

It wil take Trout scoring 140.

[Bothrops Atrox]

yes. but he is also hacking more. the last 2 years his outside the zone swing percentage increased dramatically. his career average was about 22% and in 2011 it was 31 and even 36 in 2012

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1177&position=1B

that is quite unusual. it does happen that players walk less because the pitchers don't fear them anymore and rather lay one in but that a player starts to lose his eye and chases pitches doesn't happen very often. usually the eye is the last thing that goes and many older players even compensate for losing contact ability by being more selective (thus walking more).

Hence "this and...".