how good is trouts defense?

[dominik]

Of course he is a fantastic defender with rediculous range but is he really that good? I read in scouting reports that he only has an average arm. Can you have one of the best defensive seasons ever with a mediocre arm? or doesn't he actually have a mediocre arm? what makes him so good and can he really compete or even beat a prime andruw jones or willie mays?

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

Not nearly what the asinine dWAR would have you to believe. He makes a lot of outs because of his speed. His arm is somewhere between above average and pretty good IMO. From all the catches I've ever seen on film or in person, I believe his are overrated; plenty of other guys can (and have) make some of his "absurd" catches. This one is due to misjudgment and made up for by jumping high. This one is just him jumping high. The only robbed HR I've seen him make and consider spectacular is the one he pulled on J.J. Hardy.

I've gotten a little tired him, in all honesty. His defense is really good. To answer your question, he isn't "that good." I've seen enough of his D to make up my mind. I give him a B+

[Bothrops Atrox]

DRS (used in bbref WAR) has him + 25 or so runs saved. Total Zone and UZR both have him closer to +15 runs saved. As always when looking at advanced metrics, trust the outliers less or regress what you feel is necessary for fielding luck.

I would buy the notion that he is a "true" +10- +20 runs saved defender.

[Bothrops Atrox]

DRS (used in bbref WAR) has him + 25 or so runs saved. Total Zone and UZR both have him closer to +15 runs saved. As always when looking at advanced metrics, trust the outliers less or regress what you feel is necessary for fielding luck.

I would buy the notion that he is a "true" +10- +20 runs saved defender.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Here are Trout's scouting reports from the 2010-12 Baseball America's Prospects Handbooks. They barely mention his arm, only saying it is "average".

2010
Trout BA Scouting 2010.JPG


2011
Trout BA Scouting 2011.JPG


2012
Trout BA Scouting 2012.JPG

[dominik]

Can you have an average arm and still have a historic (according to TZ) season?

I know the arm is only a quite small part of a CFers worth and he has a lot of things to compensate for this but at this level everything has to be perfect, right?

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

Can you have an average arm and still have a historic (according to TZ) season?

I know the arm is only a quite small part of a CFers worth and he has a lot of things to compensate for this but at this level everything has to be perfect, right?

I don't believe so. I think a huge amount TZ comes from getting outs thus preventing potential runs. Trout is very efficient at this because of the amount of ground he can cover and skill with diving catches. If I graded him, I believe he's somewhere around 20 TZR.

[Bothrops Atrox]

Pretty sure his TZ is +15 runsish - very good but not historic. It is his DRS (plus/minus) that is so high.

[Tyrus4189Cobb]

Pretty sure his TZ is +15 runsish - very good but not historic. It is his DRS (plus/minus) that is so high.

Maybe I was looking at DRS. Is that the same as Rfield on BBRef? It is under Player Value--Batters. Is lists him at 21.

[RaysFan_98]

Maybe the scouts were wrong? I mean when i got a up close view when the halos were here in Tampa he looked to have a great arm and could throw bullets.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Maybe the scouts were wrong? I mean when i got a up close view when the halos were here in Tampa he looked to have a great arm and could throw bullets.

It could be also be that Trout's arm has become stronger since the scouting reports were written? If you look at the 2011 scouting report it says, "Trout's weakest present tools, his power and throwing arm, still grade as future average."

[RaysFan_98]

It could be also be that Trout's arm has become stronger since the scouting reports were written? If you look at the 2011 scouting report it says, "Trout's weakest present tools, his power and throwing arm, still grade as future average."

That could be true as well.

[J W]

Considering his age it's possible that he grew into it. His body hasn't finished developing. I can only hope in this day and age that it was natural growth.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Considering his age it's possible that he grew into it. His body hasn't finished developing. I can only hope in this day and age that it was natural growth.

Most players Trout's age are still in the minors. You can see trouts development in the scouting reports.

2010
"His strength and bat speed give him the potential for average power."

2011
"Trout's weakest present tools, his power and throwing arm, still grade as future average."

2012
"He combines a rare blend of bat control, strike-zone judgement, and burgeoning power.

Yet, he hit 30 home runs, 27 doubles, and 8 triples in just 139 games in 2012. Sure looks like his power developed quite quickly.

And I missed this part in the 2011 report.

"He compensates for fringy arm strength with above-average accuracy."

[Honus Wagner Rules]

A July 2011 scouting report from John Sickels.

Prospect of the Day: Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
By John Sickels on Jul 11, 2011

Prospect of the Day: Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

Just over two years after being drafted, Angels phenom Mike Trout arrived in the major leagues. What explains his meteoritic rise, and what does the future hold?

Trout was drafted in the first round in 2009 from high school in Millville, New Jersey. The 25th overall pick in the draft, he was the only player who appeared at the MLB Network studios on draft day. Scouts considered him highly-promising due to his combination of speed and power, but his cold-weather background made some wonder about his level of polish and need for experience against better competition.
He showed few flaws in rookie ball, hitting .360/.418/.506 in 39 games with 13 steals in 15 attempts, showing outstanding instincts and more polish than anticipate. He began 2010 with Low-A Cedar Rapids and was extraordinarily successful, hitting .362/.454/.526 with 46 walks and 45 stolen bases in 81 games. This earned him a promotion to High-A Rancho Cucamonga, where he hit .306/.388/.434 with 11 steals against more difficult competition.

Promoted to Double-A Arkansas this year, Trout was hitting .324/.415/.534 before his promotion, with 38 walks, 61 strikeouts in 290 at-bats, and 28 steals in 36 attempts. These are outstanding numbers, and he's just 19 years old. Overall, Trout hit .338/.423/.503 in his minor league career, with 97 steals in 122 attempts.

A 6-1, 200 pound right-handed hitter and thrower, Trout has 80-level running speed on the traditional 20-80 scale. He uses this well on the bases and in center field. He has good instincts as a baserunner and reads pitchers well. On defense, his speed translates into very strong outfield range. His throwing arm is average but accurate.

On offense, Trout has plenty of bat speed and a good eye at the plate. He shows few weaknesses, handling both fastballs and breaking balls well. There is a bit uncertainty about his future home run power. His pop was to the gaps early in his professional career, but he's been driving more homers as he moves up. All told, he will hit for both average and power, say .300 with 15-20 homers, plenty of doubles and triples, a good on-base percentage, and 30+ steals. Combine that with excellent defense and great makeup and you have an All-Star.

Trout has just a half-year of Double-A under his belt and no Triple-A at all. This increases the risk that he may have some adjustment problems, so while his upside is undeniable, don't be surprised if there are growing pains. I wouldn't anticipate that .300, 15 homer, 30-steal output immediately in other words. If he hit .220 the rest of the way, that would still be very impressive for a guy who doesn't turn 20 until August. Whatever happens in the short run, Trout is an amazingly good prospect and the best hitting prospect in the game not named Harper.