Future Milestone Club Members

[Nerdlinger]

For 2012, here are updated versions of charts depicting potential future members of the 3000 hit club, 500 HR club, and 3000 K club. I also made a 300 win club chart this year, like HWR's last year. Each chart shows how active players compare by age to each other and to the players who have already reached those milestones. This year I also included rough projections up to the age of 40 (in gray font), which are calculated simply by dividing the player's career total by the number of seasons he's played and adding that average to his current career total.

The 3000 hit club, plus all active players with at least 1000 hits:

3000 Hit Club (2012).png

[Nerdlinger]

The 500 HR club, plus all active players with at least 100 HR:

500 HR Club (2012).png

[Nerdlinger]

The 3000 K club, plus all active players with at least 1000 strikeouts:

3000 K Club (2012).png

[Nerdlinger]

The 300 win club, plus all active players with at least 100 wins:

300 Win Club (2012).png

[milladrive]

Excellent charts, DJC! Thank you!

[Nerdlinger]

Excellent charts, DJC! Thank you!

It took a long time to make them, so everyone better enjoy them.

[Yaz]

Great stuff. 288 HR for BJ Upton sounds about right at first, but looking closer that would only require him to hit 13 more per season. Leaving the Trop, getting a new hitting coach, and most likely playing in the NL should pad those numbers quite nicely. Not 500 HR nice, but maybe 400.

You also have Carlos Pena hitting 23 more per season and landing over 400 HR. That's about 150 too much for him.

Just nit-picking as a Rays fan though, great work overall. My favorite part is that it shows how Carl Crawford is ahead in hits over 16 3000 hit club members for his age.

[GiambiJuice]

I had no idea that Javier Vazquez had retired until I saw him missing from these lists.

[Bothrops Atrox]

It looks like you are assuming very little, if no, decline as the players are aging. For example, Pujols hitting 40 HR per season every year until he is 40? He hasn't even hit 40 the past two years in his early 30's. Why not estimate decline production when making the projections?

[Cowtipper]

I had no idea that Javier Vazquez had retired until I saw him missing from these lists.

He didn't officially retire entirely. But he basically said he was done. But now he's looking into making a comeback next year from what I read.

[Nerdlinger]

Great stuff. 288 HR for BJ Upton sounds about right at first, but looking closer that would only require him to hit 13 more per season. Leaving the Trop, getting a new hitting coach, and most likely playing in the NL should pad those numbers quite nicely. Not 500 HR nice, but maybe 400.

You also have Carlos Pena hitting 23 more per season and landing over 400 HR. That's about 150 too much for him.

Just nit-picking as a Rays fan though, great work overall. My favorite part is that it shows how Carl Crawford is ahead in hits over 16 3000 hit club members for his age.

It looks like you are assuming very little, if no, decline as the players are aging. For example, Pujols hitting 40 HR per season every year until he is 40? He hasn't even hit 40 the past two years in his early 30's. Why not estimate decline production when making the projections?

I wasn't attempting to get into too much depth with the projections. That's why I just went with a simple formula. I might consider revising it, however.

I had no idea that Javier Vazquez had retired until I saw him missing from these lists.

He didn't officially retire entirely. But he basically said he was done. But now he's looking into making a comeback next year from what I read.

BB-Ref already has the date of his "Final Game," so I just assumed he wasn't coming back. I can always add him in if he plays next year.

[Ben Grimm]

Wow, that's alot of work. Nicely done!

[Nerdlinger]

Wow, that's alot of work. Nicely done!

Many thanks!

[Nerdlinger]

Due to popular demand, here I present a different version of the 3000 hit club chart with projections based on the formula used for Bill James's "favorite toy" (formula here, toy here). For your reference, I've listed the active players with at least 1000 hits who have at least some chance of reaching 3000 hits, according to James, anyway.

Age is as of July 1, 2012
Hits = player's current total
Proj = James's projected career total
Chance = James's estimated chance of player's reaching 3000 hits

Player            Age  Hits  Proj Chance
Rodriguez, Alex    36  2901  3191  97.0%
Pujols, Albert     32  2246  3084  61.2%
Cabrera, Miguel    29  1802  3110  59.2%
Beltre, Adrian     33  2227  2968  45.9%
Cano, Robinson     29  1459  2739  33.1%
Reyes, Jose        29  1484  2664  27.9%
Young, Michael     35  2230  2790  22.7%
Braun, Ryan        28  1089  2451  21.3%
Suzuki, Ichiro     38  2606  2885  20.8%
Gonzalez, Adrian   30  1301  2467  18.6%
Fielder, Prince    28  1178  2422  18.3%
Damon, Johnny      38  2769  2916  13.6%
Wright, David      29  1426  2414  12.8%
Pierre, Juan       34  2141  2680  12.7%
Rollins, Jimmy     33  2024  2628  11.9%
Markakis, Nick     28  1198  2309  11.7%
Zimmerman, Ryan    27  1110  2251  10.4%
Pedroia, Dustin    28  1025  2184   8.7%
Ramirez, Aramis    34  1959  2542   6.0%
Francoeur, Jeff    28  1159  2180   5.5%
Holliday, Matt     32  1525  2310   3.2%
Rios, Alex         31  1371  2232   2.9%
Phillips, Brandon  31  1249  2173   2.8%
Ramirez, Hanley    28  1171  2121   2.0%

3000 Hit Club (2012-BJ).PNG

[Yaz]

....and there goes the Carl Crawford respect. It was fun while it lasted.


Why Pedroia is mentioned is mystery to me. I don't see him reaching even 2200 hits. It's not like he'll ever play 1B, LF, or DH to extend his slow started career.