Dempster to BoSox

[Zito75]

It looks like Dempster will be going Boston - seems like a good fit.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121213&content_id=40641816&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

[Mr. Lasorda]

He will get knocked around in the AL East...

[DaaBoTownSox]

He will get knocked around in the AL East...

I believe that to be a fair prediction.

[GiambiJuice]

I'd imagine the Red Sox are now the overwhelming favorites to win the World Series. This deal really puts them over the top.

[filihok]

He will get knocked around in the AL East...

I believe that to be a fair prediction.

Based on?

What historical evidence is there for good pitchers going to the AL East and getting 'knocked around'?

Well, first, we should define, 'knocked around'. Yes. Pitchers going to the AL from the NL experience an increase of about a .4 runs given up per 9 innings. Anything beyond that?

[Herr28]

Just finished that deal for Joel Hanrahan too.

Dempster had a bit of an adjustment when he came down here to Texas, but he sure seemed to pitch fine the rest of the way. I think he will be fine.

[GiambiJuice]

Based on?

What historical evidence is there for good pitchers going to the AL East and getting 'knocked around'?

Well, first, we should define, 'knocked around'. Yes. Pitchers going to the AL from the NL experience an increase of about a .4 runs given up per 9 innings. Anything beyond that?

In 5 starts vs. the Yankees Dempster is 0-4 with a 7.62 ERA

[filihok]

In 5 starts vs. the Yankees Dempster is 0-4 with a 7.62 ERA

That's great.

What historical evidence is there for good starting pitchers going to the AL East and getting 'knocked around'?


Dempster in his career:
124 - 124 4.33 ERA 4.0 BB/9, 7.8 K/9

Dempster in his career vs AL East teams:
7 - 9 4.71 ERA 3.9 BB/9, 8.0 K/9

Exactly what we'd expect. An increase of .4 runs per 9 innings. Virtually no change in his walk or strike out rates.

Where's the evidence of him getting knocked around in the AL East?

[Herr28]

Actually, I was wrong. Imagine that... I was remembering a graphic during a Dempster start towards the end of the year where it showed his progress after his first 3 starts with the Rangers. He did improve greatly with 5 straight quality starts, but kinda fell apart at the end. In his last 4 starts he was 1-2 with only 1 QS. Two of those starts he didn't get out of the 4th. He beat the Red Sox (6.2 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K) and the Orioles (6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K) but got hammered by the Yankees (6 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 4 K). He was 4-0 vs the weak AL Central (Indians twice, Royals and Twins), but got ate up by the Angels 3 times and the A's once. The only quality start he had against the AL West was in Seattle.

In 12 AL starts he was 7-3 with a 5.09 ERA (2.25 ERA in 16 NL starts) and a 1.435 WHIP. Averaged 9.7 H/9 and 9.1 K/9 in the AL. Just wanted to throw out his Ranger stats after I made that last ridiculous comment. He is in his mid 30s, but I think he is a talented and smart pitcher who can do well.