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  • Zack Greinke: Overrated

    6 year - $147 million contract

    Since 2009: 41-25, 3.83 ERA, 3 CG, 106 ERA+, 1.215 WHIP, 194 SO[avg.], 201 IP[avg.]
    J. Verlander: 59-22, 2.79 ERA, 14 CG, 150 ERA+, 1.043 WHIP, 236 SO[avg.], 238 IP[avg.]
    R. Halladay: 51-24, 2.91 ERA, 17 CG, 136 ERA+, 1.085 WHIP, 190 SO[avg.], 214 IP[avg.]
    C. Kershaw: 48-24, 2.56 ERA, 3 CG, 148 ERA+, 1.055 WHIP, 230 SO[avg.], 222 IP[avg.]
    F. Hernandez: 40-35, 2.92 ERA, 16 CG, 131 ERA+, 1.138 WHIP, 226 SO[avg.], 238 IP[avg.]
    David Price: 51-24, 2.93 ERA, 4 CG, 130 ERA+, 1.143 WHIP, 204 SO[avg.], 215 IP[avg.]

    Greinke finished top ten [MLB] in ERA, ERA+, IP, WHIP, Adj. Pitching W, and WPA zero times since '09. He finished first in KP9 in 2011 and 5th in K/BB in 2010.

    At one point I thought it would be great if the Phils got him. Not so much.
    "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

  • #2
    Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
    6 year - $147 million contract

    Since 2009: 41-25, 3.83 ERA, 3 CG, 106 ERA+, 1.215 WHIP, 194 SO[avg.], 201 IP[avg.]
    J. Verlander: 59-22, 2.79 ERA, 14 CG, 150 ERA+, 1.043 WHIP, 236 SO[avg.], 238 IP[avg.]
    R. Halladay: 51-24, 2.91 ERA, 17 CG, 136 ERA+, 1.085 WHIP, 190 SO[avg.], 214 IP[avg.]
    C. Kershaw: 48-24, 2.56 ERA, 3 CG, 148 ERA+, 1.055 WHIP, 230 SO[avg.], 222 IP[avg.]
    F. Hernandez: 40-35, 2.92 ERA, 16 CG, 131 ERA+, 1.138 WHIP, 226 SO[avg.], 238 IP[avg.]
    David Price: 51-24, 2.93 ERA, 4 CG, 130 ERA+, 1.143 WHIP, 204 SO[avg.], 215 IP[avg.]

    Greinke finished top ten [MLB] in ERA, ERA+, IP, WHIP, Adj. Pitching W, and WPA zero times since '09. He finished first in KP9 in 2011 and 5th in K/BB in 2010.

    At one point I thought it would be great if the Phils got him. Not so much.
    Good call. Greinke's numbers remind me of Zito's in the first part of his career. The Dodgers will be in serious trouble in a couple years. I understand they are trying to make a statement, but the Yankees have proved that you can't buy chemistry.
    WAR? Prove it!

    Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Zito75 View Post
      Good call. Greinke's numbers remind me of Zito's in the first part of his career. The Dodgers will be in serious trouble in a couple years. I understand they are trying to make a statement, but the Yankees have proved that you can't buy chemistry.
      I wish Zito would have had more success. He was one of my favorite players. I miss those early 2000's A's teams. Eric Byrnes was my boy.
      "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

      Comment


      • #4
        I think he'll do well in LA. I don't think he's really overated.
        "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

        "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
          6 year - $147 million contract

          Since 2009: 41-25, 3.83 ERA, 3 CG, 106 ERA+, 1.215 WHIP, 194 SO[avg.], 201 IP[avg.]
          J. Verlander: 59-22, 2.79 ERA, 14 CG, 150 ERA+, 1.043 WHIP, 236 SO[avg.], 238 IP[avg.]
          R. Halladay: 51-24, 2.91 ERA, 17 CG, 136 ERA+, 1.085 WHIP, 190 SO[avg.], 214 IP[avg.]
          C. Kershaw: 48-24, 2.56 ERA, 3 CG, 148 ERA+, 1.055 WHIP, 230 SO[avg.], 222 IP[avg.]
          F. Hernandez: 40-35, 2.92 ERA, 16 CG, 131 ERA+, 1.138 WHIP, 226 SO[avg.], 238 IP[avg.]
          David Price: 51-24, 2.93 ERA, 4 CG, 130 ERA+, 1.143 WHIP, 204 SO[avg.], 215 IP[avg.]

          Greinke finished top ten [MLB] in ERA, ERA+, IP, WHIP, Adj. Pitching W, and WPA zero times since '09. He finished first in KP9 in 2011 and 5th in K/BB in 2010.

          At one point I thought it would be great if the Phils got him. Not so much.
          I agree he is overpaid. but the problem is that none of your list is available and there are at least 6 contending team is desperate need of pitching. that drives the price up.
          I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
            6 year - $147 million contract

            Since 2009: 41-25, 3.83 ERA, 3 CG, 106 ERA+, 1.215 WHIP, 194 SO[avg.], 201 IP[avg.]
            J. Verlander: 59-22, 2.79 ERA, 14 CG, 150 ERA+, 1.043 WHIP, 236 SO[avg.], 238 IP[avg.]
            R. Halladay: 51-24, 2.91 ERA, 17 CG, 136 ERA+, 1.085 WHIP, 190 SO[avg.], 214 IP[avg.]
            C. Kershaw: 48-24, 2.56 ERA, 3 CG, 148 ERA+, 1.055 WHIP, 230 SO[avg.], 222 IP[avg.]
            F. Hernandez: 40-35, 2.92 ERA, 16 CG, 131 ERA+, 1.138 WHIP, 226 SO[avg.], 238 IP[avg.]
            David Price: 51-24, 2.93 ERA, 4 CG, 130 ERA+, 1.143 WHIP, 204 SO[avg.], 215 IP[avg.]

            Greinke finished top ten [MLB] in ERA, ERA+, IP, WHIP, Adj. Pitching W, and WPA zero times since '09. He finished first in KP9 in 2011 and 5th in K/BB in 2010.

            At one point I thought it would be great if the Phils got him. Not so much.
            I am assuming those are career numbers to this point right?
            All it takes for evil to prevail is for good men to do nothing. -Unknown

            A good head and a good heart are always a formidable combination. -Nelson Mandela

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by RaysFan_98 View Post
              I am assuming those are career numbers to this point right?
              Since '09, so 2010, '11, and '12.
              "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by dominik View Post
                I agree he is overpaid. but the problem is that none of your list is available and there are at least 6 contending team is desperate need of pitching. that drives the price up.
                I think he is given much more credit than he is due though. Just my opinion. Not by anyone on here in particular. Just in the media and popular belief about who the best pitchers in baseball have been the last 4-5 years.
                "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                Comment


                • #9
                  Even counting Kyle Lohse's horrible 2010 [6.55 ERA, 1.783 WHIP and 59 ERA+] he still has a 3 year ['10-'12] ERA lower than Greinke, his WHIP is just .035 higher and his ERA+ is just 5 points lower.

                  Greinke looks like by far the worst signing of the off-season.
                  "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Zito75 View Post
                    Good call. Greinke's numbers remind me of Zito's in the first part of his career.
                    LOL
                    Zito's K/BB rate was generally around 2:1
                    Greinke's K/BB rate is generally around 3.5 or 4:1

                    Greinke is nothing like Zito.

                    Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
                    Even counting Kyle Lohse's horrible 2010 [6.55 ERA, 1.783 WHIP and 59 ERA+] he still has a 3 year ['10-'12] ERA lower than Greinke, his WHIP is just .035 higher and his ERA+ is just 5 points lower.
                    K%
                    Greinke 23%, Lohse 15%

                    BB%
                    Greinke 6%, Lohse 6%

                    FIP
                    Greinke 3.16, Lohse 3.74

                    SIERA
                    Greinke 3.24, Lohse 4.30


                    Lohse isn't near the pitcher that Greinke is

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Not worth it.
                      Last edited by bluesky5; 12-16-2012, 02:27 PM.
                      "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by chicagowhitesox1173 View Post
                        I think he'll do well in LA. I don't think he's really overated.
                        Agree with the first part, not the second.

                        It's a common problem in baseball- the best at a position on the market gets paid like an elite if teams have the need. The Dodgers are certainly in a unique position to overpay right now, but just how many bad contracts do they want to be saddled with? I'm happy with Grienke as a number two, but am troubled by the facts that a) he was paid as a number one, which will b) drive up Kershaw's price even beyond the ridiculous amount it was already going to be.

                        I said as much on Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness, and pretty much everybody took the opposing side. But have they forgotten Don Stanhouse, Dave Goltz, Darren Driefort, etc.? When's the last time a long-term Dodger pitcher deal has worked out?

                        Grienke's an excellent pitcher and will be great at Dodger Stadium if- and it's a big if- he can stay healthy. But he's not one of the dozen best pitchers in baseball.
                        Found in a fortune cookie On Thursday, August 18th, 2005: "Hard words break no bones, Kind words butter no parsnips."

                        1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988 2017?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          the thing about him is the projected upside. he can throw gas, has a lot of stuff and can strike out guys. we all have seen what he can do.

                          on the other hand he also has some issues (for example his mental state) that hurt his success in the past. however I agree that just going by stuff is not enough. too many MLB clubs believe "just a little polishing and he will get anyone out".

                          but in practice you cannot teach mental game and motivation (also you can hardly teach command-as many clubs try when they sign young 100 mph throwers with little control) and those stuff is just as important as stuff. in the end it is about results and not stuff.

                          but stuff is certainly one reason why greinke is "overrated".
                          I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
                            I think he is given much more credit than he is due though. Just my opinion. Not by anyone on here in particular. Just in the media and popular belief about who the best pitchers in baseball have been the last 4-5 years.
                            I think like many athletes, he is paid on capability and necessity...i believe both of these things raise the price tag, which obviously both benefit the athlete

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Cap78 View Post
                              I think like many athletes, he is paid on capability and necessity...i believe both of these things raise the price tag, which obviously both benefit the athlete
                              Agreed. Is Cap in reference to Adrian Anson?
                              "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                              Comment

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