Zack Greinke: Overrated

[bluesky5]

6 year - $147 million contract

Since 2009: 41-25, 3.83 ERA, 3 CG, 106 ERA+, 1.215 WHIP, 194 SO[avg.], 201 IP[avg.]
J. Verlander: 59-22, 2.79 ERA, 14 CG, 150 ERA+, 1.043 WHIP, 236 SO[avg.], 238 IP[avg.]
R. Halladay: 51-24, 2.91 ERA, 17 CG, 136 ERA+, 1.085 WHIP, 190 SO[avg.], 214 IP[avg.]
C. Kershaw: 48-24, 2.56 ERA, 3 CG, 148 ERA+, 1.055 WHIP, 230 SO[avg.], 222 IP[avg.]
F. Hernandez: 40-35, 2.92 ERA, 16 CG, 131 ERA+, 1.138 WHIP, 226 SO[avg.], 238 IP[avg.]
David Price: 51-24, 2.93 ERA, 4 CG, 130 ERA+, 1.143 WHIP, 204 SO[avg.], 215 IP[avg.]

Greinke finished top ten [MLB] in ERA, ERA+, IP, WHIP, Adj. Pitching W, and WPA zero times since '09. He finished first in KP9 in 2011 and 5th in K/BB in 2010.

At one point I thought it would be great if the Phils got him. Not so much.

[Zito75]

6 year - $147 million contract

Since 2009: 41-25, 3.83 ERA, 3 CG, 106 ERA+, 1.215 WHIP, 194 SO[avg.], 201 IP[avg.]
J. Verlander: 59-22, 2.79 ERA, 14 CG, 150 ERA+, 1.043 WHIP, 236 SO[avg.], 238 IP[avg.]
R. Halladay: 51-24, 2.91 ERA, 17 CG, 136 ERA+, 1.085 WHIP, 190 SO[avg.], 214 IP[avg.]
C. Kershaw: 48-24, 2.56 ERA, 3 CG, 148 ERA+, 1.055 WHIP, 230 SO[avg.], 222 IP[avg.]
F. Hernandez: 40-35, 2.92 ERA, 16 CG, 131 ERA+, 1.138 WHIP, 226 SO[avg.], 238 IP[avg.]
David Price: 51-24, 2.93 ERA, 4 CG, 130 ERA+, 1.143 WHIP, 204 SO[avg.], 215 IP[avg.]

Greinke finished top ten [MLB] in ERA, ERA+, IP, WHIP, Adj. Pitching W, and WPA zero times since '09. He finished first in KP9 in 2011 and 5th in K/BB in 2010.

At one point I thought it would be great if the Phils got him. Not so much.

Good call. Greinke's numbers remind me of Zito's in the first part of his career. The Dodgers will be in serious trouble in a couple years. I understand they are trying to make a statement, but the Yankees have proved that you can't buy chemistry.

[bluesky5]

Good call. Greinke's numbers remind me of Zito's in the first part of his career. The Dodgers will be in serious trouble in a couple years. I understand they are trying to make a statement, but the Yankees have proved that you can't buy chemistry.

I wish Zito would have had more success. He was one of my favorite players. I miss those early 2000's A's teams. Eric Byrnes was my boy.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

I think he'll do well in LA. I don't think he's really overated.

[dominik]

6 year - $147 million contract

Since 2009: 41-25, 3.83 ERA, 3 CG, 106 ERA+, 1.215 WHIP, 194 SO[avg.], 201 IP[avg.]
J. Verlander: 59-22, 2.79 ERA, 14 CG, 150 ERA+, 1.043 WHIP, 236 SO[avg.], 238 IP[avg.]
R. Halladay: 51-24, 2.91 ERA, 17 CG, 136 ERA+, 1.085 WHIP, 190 SO[avg.], 214 IP[avg.]
C. Kershaw: 48-24, 2.56 ERA, 3 CG, 148 ERA+, 1.055 WHIP, 230 SO[avg.], 222 IP[avg.]
F. Hernandez: 40-35, 2.92 ERA, 16 CG, 131 ERA+, 1.138 WHIP, 226 SO[avg.], 238 IP[avg.]
David Price: 51-24, 2.93 ERA, 4 CG, 130 ERA+, 1.143 WHIP, 204 SO[avg.], 215 IP[avg.]

Greinke finished top ten [MLB] in ERA, ERA+, IP, WHIP, Adj. Pitching W, and WPA zero times since '09. He finished first in KP9 in 2011 and 5th in K/BB in 2010.

At one point I thought it would be great if the Phils got him. Not so much.

I agree he is overpaid. but the problem is that none of your list is available and there are at least 6 contending team is desperate need of pitching. that drives the price up.

[RaysFan_98]

6 year - $147 million contract

Since 2009: 41-25, 3.83 ERA, 3 CG, 106 ERA+, 1.215 WHIP, 194 SO[avg.], 201 IP[avg.]
J. Verlander: 59-22, 2.79 ERA, 14 CG, 150 ERA+, 1.043 WHIP, 236 SO[avg.], 238 IP[avg.]
R. Halladay: 51-24, 2.91 ERA, 17 CG, 136 ERA+, 1.085 WHIP, 190 SO[avg.], 214 IP[avg.]
C. Kershaw: 48-24, 2.56 ERA, 3 CG, 148 ERA+, 1.055 WHIP, 230 SO[avg.], 222 IP[avg.]
F. Hernandez: 40-35, 2.92 ERA, 16 CG, 131 ERA+, 1.138 WHIP, 226 SO[avg.], 238 IP[avg.]
David Price: 51-24, 2.93 ERA, 4 CG, 130 ERA+, 1.143 WHIP, 204 SO[avg.], 215 IP[avg.]

Greinke finished top ten [MLB] in ERA, ERA+, IP, WHIP, Adj. Pitching W, and WPA zero times since '09. He finished first in KP9 in 2011 and 5th in K/BB in 2010.

At one point I thought it would be great if the Phils got him. Not so much.

I am assuming those are career numbers to this point right?

[bluesky5]

I am assuming those are career numbers to this point right?

Since '09, so 2010, '11, and '12.

[bluesky5]

I agree he is overpaid. but the problem is that none of your list is available and there are at least 6 contending team is desperate need of pitching. that drives the price up.

I think he is given much more credit than he is due though. Just my opinion. Not by anyone on here in particular. Just in the media and popular belief about who the best pitchers in baseball have been the last 4-5 years.

[bluesky5]

Even counting Kyle Lohse's horrible 2010 [6.55 ERA, 1.783 WHIP and 59 ERA+] he still has a 3 year ['10-'12] ERA lower than Greinke, his WHIP is just .035 higher and his ERA+ is just 5 points lower.

Greinke looks like by far the worst signing of the off-season.

[filihok]

Good call. Greinke's numbers remind me of Zito's in the first part of his career.

LOL
Zito's K/BB rate was generally around 2:1
Greinke's K/BB rate is generally around 3.5 or 4:1

Greinke is nothing like Zito.

Even counting Kyle Lohse's horrible 2010 [6.55 ERA, 1.783 WHIP and 59 ERA+] he still has a 3 year ['10-'12] ERA lower than Greinke, his WHIP is just .035 higher and his ERA+ is just 5 points lower.

K%
Greinke 23%, Lohse 15%

BB%
Greinke 6%, Lohse 6%

FIP
Greinke 3.16, Lohse 3.74

SIERA
Greinke 3.24, Lohse 4.30


Lohse isn't near the pitcher that Greinke is

[bluesky5]

Not worth it.

[toomanyhatz]

I think he'll do well in LA. I don't think he's really overated.

Agree with the first part, not the second.

It's a common problem in baseball- the best at a position on the market gets paid like an elite if teams have the need. The Dodgers are certainly in a unique position to overpay right now, but just how many bad contracts do they want to be saddled with? I'm happy with Grienke as a number two, but am troubled by the facts that a) he was paid as a number one, which will b) drive up Kershaw's price even beyond the ridiculous amount it was already going to be.

I said as much on Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness, and pretty much everybody took the opposing side. But have they forgotten Don Stanhouse, Dave Goltz, Darren Driefort, etc.? When's the last time a long-term Dodger pitcher deal has worked out?

Grienke's an excellent pitcher and will be great at Dodger Stadium if- and it's a big if- he can stay healthy. But he's not one of the dozen best pitchers in baseball.

[dominik]

the thing about him is the projected upside. he can throw gas, has a lot of stuff and can strike out guys. we all have seen what he can do.

on the other hand he also has some issues (for example his mental state) that hurt his success in the past. however I agree that just going by stuff is not enough. too many MLB clubs believe "just a little polishing and he will get anyone out".

but in practice you cannot teach mental game and motivation (also you can hardly teach command-as many clubs try when they sign young 100 mph throwers with little control) and those stuff is just as important as stuff. in the end it is about results and not stuff.

but stuff is certainly one reason why greinke is "overrated".

[Cap78]

I think he is given much more credit than he is due though. Just my opinion. Not by anyone on here in particular. Just in the media and popular belief about who the best pitchers in baseball have been the last 4-5 years.

I think like many athletes, he is paid on capability and necessity...i believe both of these things raise the price tag, which obviously both benefit the athlete

[bluesky5]

I think like many athletes, he is paid on capability and necessity...i believe both of these things raise the price tag, which obviously both benefit the athlete

Agreed. Is Cap in reference to Adrian Anson?